806 
FXUS64 KCRP 200842
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
342 AM CDT SUN MAY 20 2012

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS
DETERMINISTIC AS IT MOVES/LIFTS A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE ACROSS
THE PLAINS FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE CWA/MSA DRG
THE PERIOD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN RESPONSE TO THE FOREGOING
DISTURBANCE IS PROGD TO ENTER THEN STALL OVER NRN TX AND
CONTRIBUTE TO WEAKER WIND MAGNITUDES OVER THE CWA/MSA BY MONDAY.
NAM INCREASES PWAT VALUES OVER THE CWA MONDAY...YET THE GFS DOES
NOT. NEVERTHELESS...SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PRECLUDE PCPN. BASED ON
EXPECTED SWELL PERIOD (WAVEWATCH III)/WIND...ONLY A LOW RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY AND MONDAY. LOW MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED OVER THE WRN CWA TODAY/MONDAY...
YET WIND/FUEL DRYNESS NOT FAVORABLE FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS.
WIND MAGNITUDES TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SCEC...ESPECIALLY MONDAY.
NAM/GFS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES/WIND SUGGEST OVERNIGHT
STRATUS/POSSIBLY BRIEF FOG OVER THE CWA. FCSTG MAX TEMPS TODAY
BASED ON PERSISTENCE WITH SLIGHT INCREASE TO ACCOUNT FOR
EXPECTATION OF SLIGHTLY LOWER PWAT VALUES...THEN SLIGHTLY LOWER
MAX TEMPS MONDAY BASED ON GREATER PWAT VALUES FROM THE NAM.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH 
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. 
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST THROUGH MID WEEK. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY 
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING E DURING THE LATTER PART OF 
THE WEEK AS A BROAD LONG WAVE TROF DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. 
THIS ALLOWS A WEAKNESS/INVERTED TROF TO MOVE W FROM THE GULF AND 
ACROSS S TX FRI/SAT TIMEFRAME. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING 
MOISTURE/PRECIP NORTHWARD INTO S TX ON FRI/SAT BUT DIFFER SLIGHTLY 
ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT. THEREFORE WENT WITH A BROAD BRUSHED 20 POP 
FOR THOSE DAYS. WINDS ALSO INCREASE THE LATTER PART OF THE 
WEEK...MAINLY ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES AND ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE 
PLAINS...IN RESPONSE TO SFC HIGH OVER THE NRN GULF SHIFTS SLIGHTLY 
WEST AND TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT ACROSS S TX. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND 
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THU THEN GENERALLY SIMILAR TEMPS INTO THE 
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  68  87  68  88  /  10  10  10  10  10 
VICTORIA          89  66  88  66  88  /  10  10  10  10  10 
LAREDO            96  70  94  72  97  /  10  10  10  10  10 
ALICE             92  67  90  66  91  /  10  10  10  10  10 
ROCKPORT          85  72  84  73  87  /  10  10  10  10  10 
COTULLA           94  66  90  67  95  /  10  10  10  10  10 
KINGSVILLE        90  68  88  67  90  /  10  10  10  10  10 
NAVY CORPUS       84  73  83  73  85  /  10  10  10  10  10 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

WC/87...SHORT TERM
TE/81...LONG TERM