997 
FXUS65 KVEF 171659 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
1000 AM PDT THU MAY 17 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TODAY 
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY 
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. DRY 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES 
TODAY...WHILE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE SEEN ON FRIDAY. A 
WARMING TREND WILL THEN TAKE PLACE INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&

.UPDATE...A MULTITUDE OF PRODUCTS ARE OUT FOR TODAYS EXPECTED WIND 
EVENT AND BASED ON LITTLE CHANGE IN THE NEW MODEL OUTPUT FROM THIS 
MORNING...ALL THE PRODUCTS LOOK APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME. IT LOOKS 
LIKE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY MID TO 
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE  
MID TO HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY CLOUDY 
CONDITIONS AND A SMALL CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER MAINLY 
NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST NEEDED AT THIS 
TIME.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...257 AM PDT...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH 
STILL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INLAND BY 
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT EAST ACROSS NEVADA TONIGHT 
THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINDS. AS THE TROUGH MOVES 
INLAND TODAY...CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DOWNSLOPE WINDS LATE 
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE AREA MOUNTAINS. THE 
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SOUTHERN SIERRA...WHITES...AND SPRING 
MOUNTAINS WHERE GUSTS TO OVER 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. GRADIENT WINDS ON 
THE OTHER HAND WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY 
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS 
TONIGHT. VARIOUS WIND WARNINGS/ADVISORIES ARE IN OR WILL BE ISSUED 
WITH THIS PACKAGE TO COVER THESE EXPECTED WINDS. IN ADDITION TO THE 
WINDS...LOCAL AREAS OF BLOWING DUST WILL LIKELY OCCUR. AS THE TROUGH 
SHIFTS EAST...WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY WITH 
ONLY BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. BY 
SATURDAY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT/WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE 
CWA FOR MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.  

LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AS IT CROSSES 
THE AREA WHILE THE MAIN DYNAMICS BEING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. 
HOWEVER ENOUGH MOISTURE/DYNAMICS TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LINCOLN COUNTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON HOW 
THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS...MAY NEED TO EXPAND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS A 
LITTLE FURTHER WEST AND SOUTH FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AND 
WILL ADJUST AS NEEDED IN LATER FORECASTS.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TODAY WILL ALLOW DAYTIME 
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON. 
HOWEVER WITH THE TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY... 
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY DROP TO NEAR NORMAL...OR ABOUT 
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON. 
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM ONCE AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...THE MAIN STORIES NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE RETURN OF WELL 
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY ON FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF 
WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF THE 
WEEK AS THE SPRING SWING CONTINUES. RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN OVER THE 
WEST ON SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD PUSH HIGHS TO 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL 
UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. BY MONDAY THE RIDGE AXIS GETS PUSHED TO THE 
EAST AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC. THIS 
SHOULD SPILL IN SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE NORTHWEST AS THE DAY 
PROGRESSES AND ALSO INCREASE SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER 
2C OF WARMING IS SHOWN AT 700 MB AND WITH INCREASED MIXING THIS 
LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH LAS VEGAS POSSIBLY 
HITTING THE TRIPLE DIGITS AT MCCARRAN ONCE AGAIN. MODELS ARE MUCH 
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH BUT STILL SHOW SOME 
DIFFERENCES WITH THE DEPTH. FOR NOW I CONTINUED TO GO WITH A BLEND 
OF THE SOLUTIONS. WE SHOULD SEE INCREASED WINDS MONDAY AFTERNOON 
INTO MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN ON TUESDAY BREEZY TO 
MAYBE WINDY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH A DROP IN 
TEMPS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE MORE LIKE 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE 
NORMAL AND I LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE MEX NUMBERS. BEHIND THIS FIRST 
TROUGH A MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM IS SHOWN TO MOVE ACROSS THE PAC NW 
WHICH COULD CARVE OUT A DEEPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY 
INTO NEXT THURSDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN REINFORCING PERIODS OF 
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND A FURTHER COOLING TREND FOR OUR AREA WITH 
HIGHS ONLY 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT BEST. I LOWERED MAX TEMPS 
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS WHICH WAS CLOSE TO THE MEX AND ECMWF MOS 
GUIDANCE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED 
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AFTER 19Z WITH 
SPEEDS INCREASING TO 16-24 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS. 
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FEET BY 
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST 
CALIFORNIA...SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ESPECIALLY 
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MANY AREAS WILL SEE GUSTS OF 30-40 
KTS...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS - POTENTIALLY OVER 50 KTS - IN THE 
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND OWENS VALLEY. 
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE ALOFT WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN THIS 
AREA. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY BKN CLOUDS AOA 
15K-20K FEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS CLEAR 
OUT LATE THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 
20-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 03Z ACROSS NORTHERN INYO COUNTY AS WELL 
AS ESMERALDA...CENTRAL NYE AND WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTIES.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE 
AREA TODAY AND CROSS OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY...RESULTING IN 
WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
SYSTEM AND THE COMBINATION OF WINDS...A DRY AIRMASS...AND DRY FUELS 
WILL CREATE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR. A RED 
FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR 
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA...SOUTHERN NEVADA AND MOHAVE COUNTY IN 
ARIZONA.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY
     FOR NVZ018-019.
     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS 
     EVENING FOR NVZ460>465.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS 
     EVENING FOR NVZ014.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR NVZ015>017-020>022.
AZ...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MST THIS 
     EVENING FOR AZZ102.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST THIS
     EVENING FOR AZZ001>003-036.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT THIS 
     EVENING FOR CAZ226.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS 
     EVENING FOR CAZ519>521.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR CAZ522-524-527.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR 
     CAZ523.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SALMEN
PREV DISC...JENSEN/STACHELSKI

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS