National Weather Service Raw Text Product

399 
FXUS66 KLOX 270947
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
245 AM PDT FRI APR 27 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF TO THE WEST WILL BRING DRY AND WARMER 
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SOME 
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR EARLY NEXT 
WEEK...COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME INCREASE IN COASTAL 
STRATUS. 
  
&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)...OVERALL...00Z MODELS IN GOOD SYNOPTIC 
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGE WILL BUILD 
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHILE A WEAK TROUGH GRADUALLY WORKS OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. NEAR THE SURFACE...AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY 
FLOW PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH MORE TYPICAL ONSHORE FLOW 
PATTERN RETURNING ON SUNDAY.

FORECAST-WISE...THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE QUIET EXCEPT FOR SOME WIND 
ISSUES DUE TO THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. CLOUD-WISE...THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW IS PRODUCING SOME STRATOCU ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT 
THIS STRATOCU TO DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH SUNNY AFTERNOON SKIES 
FOR ALL AREAS. FOR TONIGHT/SATURDAY...SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR FOR ALL 
AREAS WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OFF TO THE WEST AND STRENGTHENING 
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER BY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY...THE 
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MAY SPIN UP AN EDDY WHICH
WOULD BRING SOME STRATUS INTO THE LAX COASTAL PLAIN. ALSO...WILL 
EXPECT SOME STRATUS TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE SALINAS VALLEY SUNDAY 
MORNING. 

AS FOR WINDS...MAIN STORY WILL BE THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE THE GRADIENTS (SBA-SMX) 
AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADVISORY-LEVEL 
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND 
TONIGHT. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY FROM 
300 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 300 AM FRIDAY MORNING. THE STRONG WINDS 
WILL LIKELY MAKE A REPEAT VISIT FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT TOO EARLY TO TELL 
IF WINDS COULD POTENTIALLY BE ADVISORY-LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHER 
THAN SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY...THERE WILL ALSO BE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN 
THE OTHER USUAL PLACES SUCH AS THE I-5 CORRIDOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF 
DAYS...BUT IN THESE AREAS THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 
ADVISORY LEVELS. 

AS FOR TEMPS...IT SHOULD BE A VERY NICE WEEKEND FOR LATE APRIL. 
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. HOWEVER FOR 
SATURDAY WILL EXPECT A VERY NICE JUMP IN TEMPS DUE TO THE UPPER 
RIDGE AND NORTHERLY FLOW. IN FACT...MOST AREAS SHOULD BE ANYWHERE 
FROM 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ON SUNDAY...WILL EXPECT SOME SLIGHT 
COOLING BUT WITH MOST AREAS STILL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. 

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...FOR THE EXTENDED...MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD 
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...INDICATING A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN. 
AT UPPER LEVELS...BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN A BROAD RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...DECENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL 
PREVAIL MONDAY/TUESDAY...THEN WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AND 
THURSDAY.

FORECAST-WISE...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT 
WEEK. OVERALL...SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT FOR THE 
EVERY PESKY MARINE LAYER STRATUS. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW...STRATUS
SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. 
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK...STRATUS COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON 
DECREASE WITH BUILDING RIDGE AND WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW. 

WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE INFLUENCE...TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW 
SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY...EXPECT AFTERNOON 
TEMPS TO CLIMB TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS. 

&&

.AVIATION...27/1140Z...

WILL BE UPDATED WITH THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. 

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...KAPLAN
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

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