National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDFSD
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTCDisplaying AFOS PIL: AFDFSD
Product Timestamp: 2012-04-24 03:40 UTC
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125 FXUS63 KFSD 240340 AFDFSD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1040 PM CDT MON APR 23 2012 .DISCUSSION... QUIET NIGHT AHEAD AS WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN SOUTHERLY...THEN DECREASE A BIT TOWARDS 12Z AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN SD. WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS BUT FAIRLY MILD LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD LOWS IN MAINLY THE MIDDLE 40S LOOKS GOOD. /08 && .AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...WITH VARIABLE WINDS REMAINING BELOW 12KTS. && .PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT/ WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PLAINS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT...WITH PREFRONTAL SOUTHERLY GRADIENT. MOST OF THE WINDS FROM AFTERNOON ARE STRONGLY SUPPORTED BY DEEPER MIXING...SO EXPECT THAT WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUITE A BIT...WITH SOMEWHAT SLOWER EASING ON HIGHER SOUTH DAKOTA ELEVATIONS. WITH DRY AIR...A SMALL WINDOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE FOR TONIGHT EXISTS ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE EAST. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE ALONG WARM FRONT WILL STALL BOUNDARY AND PERHAPS BACK A BIT WESTWARD DURING THE MORNING...BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN OVERALL WITH WARMING TEMPS ALOFT. FLOW WILL BE WEAK...BUT ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND POTENTIAL TO BE A BIT SUPERADIABATIC...AND WILL SHADE JUST A BIT TOWARD WARMER SHALLOW MIXING START WEST...AND A BIT CLOSER TO COOLER MIXING IN THE EAST. /CHAPMAN A WEAK WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED...BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY LIFTING FROM NEAR 700 MB. HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS ALSO INDICATED A VERY SUBTLE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA...WITH WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT. HAVE KEPT MENTION ON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT AM UNSURE COOLING ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO TAP INTO THE INSTABILITY. COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN WITH EACH MODEL ITERATION...SO WENT AHEAD AND WARMED UP HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO CLOUD COVER CONSIDERATIONS. THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ARE MUCH COOLER AS LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHING IN LOW LEVEL EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION LATE THIS WEEK CONTINUES TO BE PROBLEMATIC AS TWO PHASED WAVES CREATING A LONG WAVE TROUGH BREAK DOWN WITH THE SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY LIFTING NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE OTHER PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THESE TWO SYSTEMS HANG AROUND THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE BETTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND CREATING UNSETTLED WEATHER. HAVE RAISED POPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHICH APPEAR TO BE THE TWO TIME PERIODS WHERE THERE IS A GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP. THE GFS CONTINUED TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY MORNING...AND EVEN THE ECMWF MIGHT SUGGEST SOME RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW. HAVE NOT ADDED MENTION OF SNOW AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS IN FUTURE PACKAGES. WITH REX BLOCK DEVELOPING FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FEEL THAT DRY AIR WILL BE AN ISSUE ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS EASTERLY FLOW DRAWS DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY HINT AT THE POTENTIAL OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS DEVELOPING IF THERE IS AMPLE LOW LEVEL HEATING. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED QUITE A BIT CLOSER TO 925HPA MIXOUT...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH CLOSER TO CONSRAW THAN CONSALL. WILL START TO SEE TEMPERATURES RECOVER ON MONDAY...THOUGH WILL STILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$