176 
FXUS64 KLIX 190841
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
341 AM CDT THU APR 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM VIRGINIA TO THE WESTERN
GULF EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. UPPER FLOW IS ZONAL THIS MORNING. OTHER
THAN A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST...MOST AREAS
ARE CLEAR THIS MORNING. AWAY FROM MARINE INFLUENCES...TEMPERATURES
ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

ANTICIPATE QUIET WEATHER FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. ON FRIDAY...AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE GREAT
BASIN...AN UPPER TROF BEGINS DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS. BY
FRIDAY EVENING...THE TROF WILL BE OVER EAST TEXAS. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT TO THE
TEXAS COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE...WITH CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE COME AROUND TO A COMMON SOLUTION OF AN UPPER
LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE WESTERN GULF SATURDAY MORNING AND BE
SITUATED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH OF NEW ORLEANS BY SATURDAY EVENING.
THIS IS CONSIDERABLY SOUTH OF SOLUTIONS FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THIS
WILL ALSO KEEP THE SURFACE LOW WELL OFF THE COAST...AND WILL HAVE
THE EFFECT OF KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE AS WELL.
WILL LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOMEWHAT TO THE CHANCE
RANGE...AND IF MOS GUIDANCE IS ANY INDICATION...WE MAY STILL BE A
LITTLE TOO HIGH ON POPS. AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT.

HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE THROUGH
SATURDAY...FOLLOWING THE TREND FROM WEDNESDAY. WILL BACK OFF ON
THE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN CONCERNS IN THE HWO WITH THE
FURTHER SOUTHWARD TRACK OF THE LOW. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

THE ONLY RAIN CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE WITH THE
UPPER LOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH TUESDAY...BEFORE AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
NEXT FRIDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TAP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. 35

&&

.AVIATION...

NO REAL ISSUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 30-36 HRS AS VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH 12/18Z FRI. BY THAT TIME LOW
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO INCREASE AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD
OF OUR WEEKEND SYSTEM. THE ONLY POSSIBLE HICCUP WILL BE THE
TYPICAL PROBLEM TERMINALS THAT SEE BR DEVELOP FROM AROUND 9-13Z.
/CAB/

&&

.MARINE...

RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND
MUCH OF FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION AND TO THE
EAST. BY FRI NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL START TO CHANGE. BY LATE FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING THE SFC LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NRN
GULF WILL LEAD TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW INITIALLY. SAT AFTN
THROUGH SAT NIGHT THE SFC LOW WILL SLOWLY PUSH TO THE EAST AND
DEEPEN ACROSS THE NRN GULF. THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND AS THE
SFC LOW PUSHES EAST OF OUR AREA A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NW AND PICK UP
SIGNIFICANTLY. BY SAT NIGHT STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL COMMENCE AND
WE COULD EVEN SEE GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTER AND
INNER WATERS WHILE HIGH END SCY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
LAKES AND SOUNDS. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH SUN AND SUN
NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY STARTING TO RELAX MON MORNING. IF THE MDLS
CONTINUE TO HOLD SERVE A GALE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED DURING
THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TONIGHT OR DAY SHIFT TOMORROW. /CAB/

&&

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE...BLUE.
DEPLOYED...ER-METS TO NEW ORLEANS FOR NAVY WEEK STAGING ACTIVITIES.
ACTIVATION...NONE. 
ACTIVITIES...SUPPORTING NOLA NAVY WEEK. 
             MONITORING HAZARDS POTENTIAL FOR UPCOMING WEEKEND.
                                                 
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED  
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY 
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES 
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR AND/OR
         DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE  

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  81  56  81  59 /   0   0  10  20 
BTR  82  58  82  62 /   0   0  10  30 
ASD  81  59  82  62 /   0   0  10  20 
MSY  80  60  81  64 /   0   0  10  20 
GPT  80  60  80  64 /   0   0  10  20 
PQL  80  57  80  61 /   0   0  10  20 

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$