628 
FXUS61 KCAR 161950
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
350 PM EDT MON APR 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CROSS THE
STATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE LOW TUESDAY.
EXPECT HIGHEST POPS IN THE NORTH TONIGHT...HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE
RELATIVELY DRY. HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12...GFS40 AND SREF
FOR POPS ALONG WITH SOME HAND EDITING. WILL ALSO INCLUDE SOME
PATCHY FOG OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WITH FLOW OFF
OCEAN...HOWEVER WIND SPEED IS A LITTLE STRONGER TONIGHT THEN LAST
NIGHT SO LOWER LEVELS MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER MIXED. FOR
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT HAVE INITIALIZED THE GRIDS WITH GMOS AND
WILL INCREASE TEMPERATURE SEVERAL DEGREES TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TERM.

HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
W/SOME COOLER AIR OVER THE CWA. THE AIRMASS IS SHOWN TO BE DRY PER
THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS. THEREFORE, PLAYED IT THIS WAY WITH NO
POPS IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BASICALLY CLEAR SKIES. THE
EXCEPTION TO THE THIS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN SITES TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SOME LLVL CLOUDS COULD HANG ON AS THE
UPPER TROF PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. ADJUSTED THE MINS FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT TO BRING THEM UP A FEW DEGREES AS NW WINDS HANG ON
NEAR 10 MPH OR SO ALLOWING FOR MIXING. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR
WEDNESDAY WILL ALLOWING FOR HEATING BUT NORTHERLY WIND SETTING UP
WILL AID IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. WEDNESDAY MAXES WILL BE SOME 10 TO
20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE TODAY(MONDAY). 

LOW PRES IS SHOWN BY THE GFS/NAM AND THE ECMWF TO PASS ACROSS
QUEBEC DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THERE IS MUCH MOISTURE W/THE FRONT. DECIDED TO
BLEND THE GFS/GMOS AND NAM FOR THE POPS LEADING TO SLIGHT CHC(20%)
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER AS WSW WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR MILDER
AIR TO STREAM INTO THE REGION. FOLLOWED THE MIDNIGHT CREW'S MAXES
W/AN ADJUSTMENT UPWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A COLD 
FRONT WILL WAVER ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH 
SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN 
COME FOR THE WEEKEND AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES NORTHEAST 
ALONG THE FRONT. MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING THAT HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTERED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC WILL NOSE INTO 
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO 
SATURDAY...PUSHING THE FRONT ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. WHILE THIS 
MAY ALLOW THE RAIN TO TAPER OFF A BIT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE 
WEEKEND IT WILL ALSO BRING COLDER AIR TO THE REGION. THIS MEANS THE 
PRECIPITATION MAY MIX WITH OR EVEN CHANGE TO ALL SNOW IN NORTHERN 
MAINE AT NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL LIFT ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY AND 
MONDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND NIGHT-TIME SNOW POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.

SHORT TERM: VFR RIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW. THE
ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS MVFR COULD TAKE PLACE. 

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 TO INITIALIZE
THE WIND GRIDS. WILL LOWER WIND SPEED TUESDAY BETWEEN 2 AND 4
KNOTS DUE TO THE EXPECTED MARINE LAYER OVER THE COLD SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE. FOR WAVES: HAVE INITIALIZED THE GRIDS WITH SWAN/NAM.
WILL LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS 1 FOOT TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM: NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS TERM. WIND GUSTS
OF 20-25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN, WIND WILL LET UP BELOW 20 KTS. GFS/NAM12 BLEND USED
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THEN USED A BLEND OF THE GMOS AND GFS. WINDS
WERE ADJUSTED DOWN FOR THE NIGHT-TIME. LOOK FOR WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2 TO 4
FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS: TUESDAY APRIL 17
CARIBOU:      69F (2005)
HOULTON:      71F (2005)
BANGOR:       77F (1976,1973)

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...MIGNONE
MARINE...MIGNONE/HEWITT
CLIMATE...MIGNONE