398 
FXUS62 KILM 141839
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
239 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SUMMER-LIKE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARM WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY SEASONABLE LATE WEEK TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH...NOW SOLIDLY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...AND BUILDING UPPER RIDGE TO REMAIN IN CONTROL OVERNIGHT.
DIURNAL CU ALONG WITH CLOUD ASSOCIATED WITH CLOUD COVER ALONG WEAK
COASTAL TROUGH OVER SC COUNTIES IS SLOWLY SPREADING NORTH. CLOUD
COVER WILL SPREAD OVER SOME OF THE NC COUNTIES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL START TO DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. AS
COASTAL TROUGH MOVES INLAND IT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER...LIMITING
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS DO
SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALOFT TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF CIRRUS
DROPPING DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES OVERNIGHT WITH 20 KT LOW LEVEL JET HELPING TO KEEP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED. COMBINATION OF WINDS AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S OVERNIGHT...
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE...CENTERED ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS WILL SUPPRESS THE CHANCES FOR ANY RAINFALL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS SAME RIDGE WILL BUILD A WARMER AIR MASS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE...WILL BRING A S TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MUCH HIGHER DEWPOINTS...MORE TYPICAL OF
MID APRIL. A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE ATOP THE MIXED LAYER WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON/EVE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BOTH DAYS. THESE
CLOUDS...WITH BASES 4-7 KFT...WILL LIKELY BE ENHANCED ALONG A
PRONOUNCED SEABREEZE WHICH WILL MAKE GOOD INLAND PROGRESS AS
HEATING INTENSIFIES INTO AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVE WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 20 MPH. WINDS ALONG AND ON
THE MARINE SIDE OF THE SEABREEZE BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO BE A
LITTLE HIGHER...GUSTING TO 25 MPH.

TEMP PROFILES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 80S BOTH SUN AND MON...HIGHEST
MON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST WHERE MARINE
INFLUENCES WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM GETTING OUT OF THE LOWER TO MID
70S...COOLEST ON SUN. MINIMUM TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH PERHAPS A FEW MID 60S MON NIGHT ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS WILL RESIDE. 

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...MID TO UPPER RIDGE WILL BE SLIPPING OFF SHORE 
AND WEAKENING THROUGH TUESDAY AS H5 TROUGH PUSHES COLD FRONT TOWARDS 
AREA. LATEST GFS SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS BY LATE 
TUES AND REACHING THE COAST BY WED. A DEEP MOIST SW FLOW WILL 
DEVELOP AHEAD OF FRONT ON TUES. SHOULD SEE BEST CHC OF PCP FURTHER 
INLAND LATE TUES INTO EARLY WED AND THEN ALONG THE COAST WED BEFORE 
FRONT MOVES OFF SHORE. PCP WATER VALUES INCREASE UP TO 1.5 INCHES 
LATE TUES JUST NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...WITH STEERING FLOW FROM THE 
SW AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. WILL KEEP BETTER CHC OF PCP INLAND LATE TUES 
INTO TUES NIGHT. AS FRONT SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE COAST BY WED...A MORE 
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD GUIDE ANY STORMS TOWARD THE COAST 
BRINGING A GREATER CHC OF PCP FOR COASTAL AREAS ON WED. GFS SHOWS 
PCP WATER VALUES DECREASING TO LESS THAN AN INCH BY LATE WED AS MID 
TO UPPER TROUGH PUSHES FRONT OFF SHORE WITH A DEEPER NW FLOW 
DEVELOPING. THIS DEEPER NW FLOW WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO AREA LATE 
WED INTO THURS WITH PCP WATER VALUES DOWN AROUND A HALF INCH. 

AS RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ON TUES THE HEIGHTS WILL BE DECREASING 
AND 850 TEMPS SHOW A SLIGHT DROP...BUT OVERALL EXPECT ANOTHER WARM 
DAY WITH TEMPS UP AROUND 80. THE STRONGER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE 
FLOW SHOULD KEEP SEA BREEZE PINNED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND HELP 
BRING WARMER TEMPS ALONG THE COAST. BY LATE TUES INTO WED EXPECT 
MORE CLOUD COVER AND GREATER CHC FOR PCP WHICH WILL BRING WARMER 
TEMPS OVERNIGHT...AROUND 60 WHILE LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR 
WED. SOME CAA BEHIND FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70S IN A COOLER 
AND DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW ON THURS. 

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER AREA ON THURS WILL MOVE OFF SHORE BY LATE 
THURS AND SFC FLOW SHIFTS AROUND WITH A WEAK RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. 
WHILE THE MID TO UPPER FLOW REMAINS MORE ZONAL OVER THE 
SOUTHEAST...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT 
EAST OVERNIGHT THURS WHICH SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF AREA. WITH 
DEEP DRIER W-NW FLOW STILL PRESENT ABOVE THE SURFACE...NOT EXPECTING 
MUCH IN TERMS OF WEATHER. A DEEPER RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP FRI 
THROUGH SAT AHEAD OF NEXT SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD MOVE 
THROUGH AREA FROM THE NW OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL WARM UP FRI 
AND SAT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST
FLOW TO RETURN. THE GRADIENT INCREASES WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS
EVENING...BUT SHOULD STAY ABOVE 5 KTS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT...
LITTLE OR NO FOG EXPECTED. SUNDAY...ANOTHER EXCELLENT AVIATION DAY
WITH LIGHT WINDS...POSSIBLE HIGH STRATA CU CEILING BASED ON TIME
HEIGHT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM SATURDAY...LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...UNDER 10 KT...WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND VEER TO
SOUTHWEST AS CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER OFF THE COAST.
ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED WITH WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KT THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT THIS AFTERNOON BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FT
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN COMPONENT WILL BE A SOUTHWEST WIND WAVE ALONG
WITH A SMALL EASTERLY SWELL.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL KEEP SW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. A PRONOUNCED
SEABREEZE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING...BACKING WINDS TO
SSW NEAR SHORE INTO THE EVE. WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS WHERE THE THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTEST.
WINDS UP TO 15 TO 20 KT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVE
HOURS. SEAS WILL BE A FUNCTION OF A PERSISTENT SW TO SSW WIND AND
A WEAK 8 TO 9 SECOND SE SWELL. WILL CAP HEIGHTS AT 4 FT...ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE SOME 5 FT SEAS JUST BEYOND 20 NM.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SATURDAY...A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND HIGH 
PRESSURE LOCATED OFF SHORE ON TUES WILL BEGIN TO VEER AROUND LATE 
DAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. NOT EXPECTING 
GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN TOO MUCH AHEAD OF FRONT AND THEREFORE WILL 
MAINTAIN A MODERATE S-SW FLOW UP TO 15 KTS ON TUES. COLD FRONT 
SHOULD REACH THE COAST WED MORNING MOVING THROUGH BY WED AFTN. WINDS 
WILL VEER AROUND TO THE N-NW BEHIND FRONT WED AND WILL CONTINUE TO 
VEER AROUND TO THE NE BY WED NIGHT. BY THURS WINDS WILL BECOME MORE 
ON SHORE BEFORE A RETURN FLOW SETS UP AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF 
SHORE. WITH FLOW REMAINING 10 TO 15 KTS THE SEAS WILL NOT BUILD TOO 
MUCH. EXPECT SEAS TO REMAIN 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 
SOME 4 FTERS IN OUTER WATERS IN SLIGHT SURGE BEHIND FRONT WED 
EVENING. WNA SHOWING A LONGER PERIOD UP TO 12 SECOND NE SWELL MOVING 
INTO WATERS ON THURS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...III/DL