478 
FXUS63 KIND 051442
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1042 AM EDT THU APR 5 2012

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

A FRONT STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN AND 
ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS THE SOUTH EARLY TODAY...THEN AS THIS FRONT 
DROPS FARTHER SOUTH CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA 
BY THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING EAST ACROSS 
THE PLAINS DIVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND WILL CAUSE 
TEMPERATURES TO FALL ACROSS THE AREA TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS AND 
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN 
THE SHORT TERM. A COUPLE OF WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH WILL BRING 
LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THE DAY/...

RAW E/NE FLOW MAKING FOR A COOL MORNING OVER CENTRAL INDIANA UNDER
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS AS OF 14Z WERE MAINLY HOLDING IN THE
MID AND UPPER 40S DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER.

AREA OF PRECIP THAT WAS PRESENT OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAS REALLY DROPPED OFF IN COVERAGE OVER THE LAST
THREE HOURS AS LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IS INFILTRATING FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND BETTER FORCING ALOFT IS SHIFTING SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW. WITH AN
AREA OF PRECIP JUST SOUTH OF DAVIESS/MARTIN COS...WILL MAINTAIN
LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE MID AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
WITH VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT OVER SOUTHERN
INDIANA...WILL MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION THROUGH NOON.
ELSEWHERE...APPEARS TOO MUCH DRY AIR IS PRESENT IN THE LOW LEVELS
FOR ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIP TO FALL.

OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOCUSED ON WINDS...TEMPS AND THE
CLOUD COVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. CURRENT VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDING ALL
THE WAY INTO FAR NORTHERN INDIANA. CURRENT SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATING THESE CLOUDS MAY END UP TAKING MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON TO COMPLETELY SCATTER OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPS AND HAVE BUMPED HIGHS DOWN A COUPLE
DEGREES AS A RESULT. ALSO BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY BASED ON CURRENT OBS WITH SUSTAINED AT 15-20MPH AND GUSTS
CLOSER TO 25 TO 30MPH.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

SINCE MODELS DEPICT A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE REGION THIS 
ENTIRE PERIOD THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY (AND CLEAR TO MOSTLY 
CLEAR!)...HOWEVER CONCERN THEN TURNS TO FROST BOTH FRI AND SAT 
MORNINGS AS TEMPERATURE DIP NEAR OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. TONIGHT 
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE PERIOD. BASED ON THICKNESSES 
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS FOR FRIDAY MORNING LOOK VERY 
REASONABLE...HOWEVER AM VERY CONCERNED FOR THE SLIGHTLY STRONG LLVL 
WINDS THAT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHICH COULD PUT A HAMPER ON FROST 
FORMATION...EVEN IN COUNTIES TO THE NORTH WHERE SUB-FREEZING 
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE FORECAST. SURFACE WINDS OF 10KT OR GREATER 
LOOK LIKELY AS THE GRADIENT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH WHILE THE 
AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SYNOPSIS PULLS FARTHER 
AWAY TOWARD THE MID ATLC REGION. OPTED TO DROP THE FREEZE WATCH AND 
REPLACE THIS SAME AREA UNDER A FROST ADVISORY FOR AREAS TO 
WIDESPREAD FROST DEVELOPMENT AND PUT PATCHY FROST ELSEWHERE IN THE 
GRIDS...HOWEVER WITHOUT A HEADLINE. (WILL MENTION IT IN THE HWO 
HOWEVER.) 

DURING THE DAY FRIDAY SHOULD SEE AMPLE SUNSHINE WITH HIGH PRESSURE 
ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTER 
VERY CLOSE EXPECT WINDS TO DROP OFF TO LESS THAN 5 KTS. IDEAL 
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS COULD BE IN PLACE WITH THE LACK OF 
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AND THUS WENT COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. 
WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE FREEZING BUT ONLY UP TO THE MID 30S 
AND LIGHT WINDS INCLUDED PATCHY FROST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR 
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR 
THIS PERIOD FOR ADDITIONAL FROST/FREEZE HEADLINE WHICH MAY BE 
NEEDED. 

TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY...WHICH 
LOOKS LIKE A PLEASANT SPRING DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS 
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. 

NEXT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE SAT AND CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS LOOKING WEAKER AND DRY AS OF LATE SO BACKED
OFF ON POPS UNTIL AFTER 06Z SUNDAY AND KEPT ONLY 20-30% OVER THE
AREA ATTM. CENTRAL INDIANA SHOULD BE DRY BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY ON
SUNDAY...AND THE CONSOLIDATION OF ONE OR MORE UPPER LEVEL WAVES
INTO A COLD VORTEX OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONE OF THESE LOWS WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ASIDE
FROM THIS...AND A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...A DRY FORECAST DOMINATES THE EXTENDED.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS...AND PERHAPS EVEN
BELOW CLIMO ON A FEW DAYS...BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY SO.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 05/12Z TAFS/...

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR 
RESTRICTIONS IN DISSIPATING BAND OF SHOWERS OVER HUF/BMG.

UPPER LOW WILL PULL AWAY TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS 
WILL END AT HUF/BMG WITHIN THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD...WITH 
MIDLEVEL CLOUD REMAINING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR 
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ADVANCES INTO THE AREA.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTS TO 
AROUND 20KT ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES DURING THE DAY...SUBSIDING IN 
TYPICAL DIURNAL FASHION THIS EVENING.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ021-028>031-
035>046-048-049-057.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD