717 
FXUS63 KOAX 012058
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
358 PM CDT SUN APR 1 2012

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE EXTENT OF ANY LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT WITH VERY MILD 
LOWS...THEN CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
POTENTIAL FOR WIND HEADLINES MONDAY.

AT 20Z SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL SOUTH 
DAKOTA WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA
TOWARD DES MOINES. AT 20Z...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 80S AND 90S 
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...50S AND 60S WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
15 TO 25 MPH. A NEW RECORD WAS SET AT NORFOLK AS THEY WERE AT 90
DEGREES BY 3PM. THE OLD RECORD WAS 88 IN 2003.  THE
DRYLINE/WINDSHIFT WAS EAST OF VALENTINE AND THEDFORD AS THEY HAD 
DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S/30S. 

TONIGHT THERE IS SOME GOOD THETA-E ADVECTION AND BOTH THE NAM/GFS
SHOW POOLING OF H85 DEWPOINTS OVER ECNTRL NEBRASKA INTO WRN IOWA
AT 00Z AND QUICKLY LIFTING THIS MOISTURE NORTHEAST THROUGH 06Z.
THERE MAY BE SOME LOW CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP...BUT THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING IT WILL BE CAPPED THIS EVENING. THERE WAS
SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND THIS MORNING AND LOW LEVEL RH LEVELS/LOW
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AGAIN FOR MONDAY MORNING. WILL MENTION FOG
AND SHOULD SEE SOME STRATUS. MILD SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD HOLD LOWS
TO THE MID 50S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 60S FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.

THE SURFACE FRONT BY 12Z SHOULD IN THE VICINITY OF A LINE FROM WAYNE 
TO COLUMBUS AND PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z. THE NEW
18Z NAM WAS A LITTLE FASTER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. THERE
IS SOME LIFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...HOWEVER THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
ENERGY LIFTS TO OUR NORTH. THERE WILL BE CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT AND
FOR NOW HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND COULD SEE
SOME LOW POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TOO.
STRONG WINDS ARE A CONCERN FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY
HAVE WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 40 MPH. MAY NEED A WIND
ADVISORY ESPECIALLY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE NORTHERN ENERGY TRACKS TO OUR NORTHEAST WHILE
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROF CLOSES OFF OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE STORM SYSTEM MAY CONTINUE SHOWER AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN IOWA
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  THEN FARTHER NORTH ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA WEDNESDAY...WITH LIKELY CHANCES ACROSS
THE SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.THE FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED 
WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN 
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN STARTS OUT WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE COOL 
SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND 
THE MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW OVER EASTERN KANSAS.  PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN 
FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE PRECIPITATION 
AREA AND THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF SOUTHEAST 
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA THURSDAY MORNING. 

MEANWHILE...A MUCH LARGER SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE ONSHORE...WITH A 
LARGE CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC 
NORTHWEST.  THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE WESTERN 
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EASTWARD FRIDAY 
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE 12Z GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE WEEKEND 
SYSTEM THAN THE 00Z RUN. THE PATTERN LOOKS VERY DYNAMIC AND THE 
SURFACE LOW LIFT NORTH FROM NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO ERN NORTH DAKOTA 
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.  0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH AND 
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...HOWEVER THE CAPE IS LACKING. THE 
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE 
LOW...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD 
OF AND WITH THE COLD FRONT.  TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED WILL 
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S 
THURSDAY...60S AND 70S FRI THRU SAT AND COLDER SUNDAY.  WIND 
HEADLINES MAY BE NEED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING WITH STRONG 
WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KOMA AND KLNK.

AVIATION CONCERNS INCLUDE LOW CLOUD/FOG POSSIBILITY LATE TONIGHT
AND THEN FRONTAL TIMING/WIND SHIFT ON MONDAY. FOR TODAY SRLY WINDS 
SHOULD INCREASE SOME INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AT KOFK WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS EXPECTED AT KOMA AND KLNK BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR TONIGHT...STRATUS WHICH DEVELOPED SW-S
OF THE REGION THIS MORNING COULD REDEVELOP FARTHER NEWD MONDAY
MORNING AHEAD OF ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT AND IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS
WERE FORECAST AT ALL SITES. SOME FOG COULD ACCOMPANY LOW CLOUDS
AND A PERIOD OF IFR VSBY RESTRICTION WAS INCLUDED AT KLNK WHICH
WAS CLOSEST TO SIMILAR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. COLD FRONT SHOULD
MAKE IT TO KOMA AND KLNK BEFORE 02/18Z WITH NW WINDS INCREASING
MARKEDLY BEHIND IT...BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER 02Z/18Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

ZAPOTOCNY/CHERMOK