051 
FXUS63 KOAX 190447
AFDOAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1147 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.

DEVELOPING MVFR CIGS NEAR FL025 WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL EASTERN
NEBRASKA TAF SITES SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. STRONG SOUTH WINDS GUSTING
NEAR 30KTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF MONDAY. RAIN
AND CIGS NEAR FL015 ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 12Z AND PERSIST
MUCH OF THE MORNING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KLNK
AND KOMA...MAINLY DURING THE 16Z TO 22Z TIME FRAME MONDAY...WITH
THESE STORMS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z.

DERGAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT SUN MAR 18 2012/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

DOING A QUICK MODEL PERFORMANCE REVIEW...APPEARS TO ME THAT THE GFS
HAS LEAD THE PACK HANDLING THIS SYSTEM. LAST WEEK THE GFS WAS
ADVERTISING UPPER LOW PRESSURE CLOSING AT THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROF NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION THEN CUTTING OFF OVER THE SRN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE THE ECM/CMC GENERALLY MEANDERED BETWEEN AN OPEN WAVE AND
CLOSED LOW...BUT NEVER SHOWED THE CUTTING OFF OVER THE SRN PLAINS. AT
ANY RATE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HEAVY PCPN EVENT ON THE HORIZON FOR
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT PCPN TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT WITHIN AREA
OF INCREASING TRANSVERSE AGEOSTROPHIC LIFT AS MID LYR FRONTOGENESIS
SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS ALONG WITH
STRENGTHENING DIFFERENTIAL DIVERGENCE. MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT
COUPLED WITH AMPLE FORCING WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLY MONDAY MORNING...LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE AXIS GET SHOVED A BIT TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY WITH MOVEMENT
OVER UPPER TROF AXIS. A BRIEF REPRIEVE THEN MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE PCPN
RETURNS ON TUESDAY. THIS ALL IN PART TO FLOW JUST NORTH THE CLOSING
UPPER LOW WILL FORCE MOISTURE TO RETROGRADE INTO THE REGION. AS OF
NOW...BETTER CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE ERN CWA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WHERE LIFT CAN TAP INTO A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT. ALSO...COMPOSITE
PARAMETER PROGS SHOW LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

DEE

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY IN THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW SET TO MEANDER ACROSS THE
CNTRL PLAINS THIS UPCOMING WEEK. ENSEMBLES THOUGH WOULD STILL INDC
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL PATH...AND SO WE WILL CONT TO NOT
GET TO SPECIFIC ABOUT THE DETAILS OF THE DAILY FORECAST. WILL CONT
TO MENTION RAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THU-FRI AND DRY THINGS OUT
FOR NEXT WEEK. MODELS INDC A LITTLE STRONG LOBE OF VORTICITY
ROTATING NEWD INTO THE AREA ON THU WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME ISO
THUNDER FOR THU/THU NIGHT BUT OTHERWISE IT SHOULD GENERALLY JUST BE
SHOWERS. WITH COLD MID LEVEL TMPS NEAR THE UPPER LOW OVER THE AREA
WE SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUN FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD EWD. WITH NO COLD AIR CONNECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE CUT OFF LOW WE WILL CONT TO SEE TMPS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD...THOUGH NOT THE RECORD SETTING WARMTH WE ARE CURRENTLY
SEEING.

JB

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$