464 
FXUS62 KMHX 161452
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1052 AM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE TODAY AND LINGER NEAR OR JUST SOUTH
OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...BATCH OF SHRA OVER MAINLY SRN TIER CONTS TO 
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E. THIS MATCHES UP WITH CURRENT POPS SO NO SIGNIF 
CHANGES PLANNED. OUTSIDE OF SHRA AREA TEMPS ARE RISING AND SHLD 
REACH AROUND 80 AWAY FROM WTR WITH LOWER 70S BEACHES. AS TEMPS RISE 
INSTAB WILL INCREASE AND WILL HAVE SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA 
DEVELOP LATER...AGAIN BEST CVRG LOOKS TO BE INLAND WHERE LIFT MAY BE 
ENHANCED A BIT FROM NEXT APPROACHING SRT WAVE. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM FRIDAY...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND BEST LIFT OVER THE
NORTHERN AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS...WHERE SPECIFIC HUMIDITY
VALUES OF 12 G/KG ARE EXPECTED. STILL THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS
VERY WEAK AND POPS OF 20 TO 40 PERCENT...WITH THE HIGHEST NORTH
COAST...ARE EXPECTED WITH FAIRLY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS. ANOTHER MILD
NIGHT UPCOMING WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRI...THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A 
LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND AN UPPER TROUGH 
DIGGING INTO THE WRN CONUS...WHICH SLOWLY MIGRATES EWD AND DEVELOPS 
INTO A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS BY MID THE MIDDLE OF NEXT 
WEEK. AT THE SURFACE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA SAT 
AND THEN REMAINS ACROSS OR JUST S OF ERN NC THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY 
NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND 
COAST SAT AND GRADUALLY MOVE SWD ACROSS THE WRN NORTH ATLANTIC 
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 

THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS AMONG THE 
MODELS AND INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS TO MAKE THE FORECAST A BIT 
CHALLENGING. SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES INCLUDE THE PLACEMENT OF THE 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE STRENGTH OF THE COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE AND 
THE STRENGTH AND MIGRATION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT RIDES OVER THE 
RIDGE SUN AND WHETHER WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA 
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF. ALL MODELS INDICATING 
FAIRLY HIGH 1000-500MB RH PERSISTING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SO 
THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE AVAILABLE FORCING FOR EACH DAY. THE BEST 
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE SAT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
MOVING INTO THE AREA AND THE REGION REMAINING FAIRLY UNSTABLE (LI'S 
RANGE FROM -3C TO -7C IN THE MODELS). SUN LOOKS THE LEAST UNSTABLE 
AT THIS TIME WITH SFC HIGH PRES RIDGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE 
NE...BUT COULD SEE WEAK FORCING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RIDES OVER 
THE RIDGE TOWARD THE REGION. INSTABILITY GRADUALLY INCREASES  
MON-WED AS THE HIGH WEAKENS WHILE SLIDING SWD AND COULD SEE A FEW 
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON ESP TUE AND WED WHEN 
SOME MODELS INDICATING HIGHER INSTABILITY AND WEAK SFC TROUGHS 
LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONFERENCE. 
FOR THE MOST PART IT LOOKS MORE LIKE A SUMMERTIME PATTERN AND BEYOND 
SAT WILL INDICATE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EACH 
AFTERNOON INLAND WITH NOCTURNAL STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF 
STREAM WITH TROUGHING PERSISTING COMBINED WITH LAND BREEZE 
ENHANCEMENT OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP THU DRY FOR NOW BUT SOME MODELS 
(ECMWF) KEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ANOTHER DAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS 
POSSIBLE. ONE THING TO NOTE ABOUT THE MODELS IS THAT I AM 
DISCOUNTING THE SPURIOUSLY STRONG LOW PRES SYSTEM THE NAM IS 
DEVELOPING SUN AND MON E OF CAPE HATTERAS. 

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS 
WELL. HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 70S EACH AFTERNOON INLAND WITH ONSHORE 
FLOW KEEPING THE OBX A LITTLE COOLER IN THE M/U60S WHILE LOWS 
EXPECTED IN THE 50S EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 7 AM FRIDAY...SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING ESPECIALLY AT KOAJ. ALSO SEEING A BAND OF LOWER CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AT THIS TIME. WILL INDICATE SOME
LOW CIGS/VSBYS OVER THRU ABOUT 14Z THEN CEILINGS SHOULD RISE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR TSTMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. LATEST
MOS GUIDANCE INDICATE MORE MVFR VSBYS IN FOG BY LATE TONIGHT. 

LONG TERM /FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY/... 
AS OF 300 AM FRI...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA WITH 
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SAT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS THOUGH CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS. 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SFC BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA SUN 
THROUGH TUE AND COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS DEVELOP MAINLY 
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT THE TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH 
LOW LEVEL RH'S BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING 
FOG OR STRATUS EACH DAY AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM FRIDAY...SW WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE A BIT THIS AFTN 
BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH AND SFC TRF/FRONT TO THE NW. NO CHANGES 
PLANNED WITH SW WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KTS AND SEAS MAINLY 2 
TO 4 FT...POSS 3 TO 5 OUTER CNTRL WTRS. WINDS SHLD DIMINISH 
OVERNIGHT AND POSS SHIFT TO THE NW LATE AS BNDRY DRIFTS S INTO THE 
AREA. 

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 
AS OF 300 AM FRI...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO ERN NC SAT BUT 
THEN BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION 
LATE SAT AND GRADUALLY WASHES OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRES 
SLIDES S OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. COULD SEE A COASTAL TROUGH MOVE 
ONSHORE TUE AS THE HIGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE NC COAST. LIGHT WINDS 
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY AOB 10 KT...PERHAPS UP TO 15 
KT EARLY SAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WIND EXPECTED TO BECOME NELY BEHIND 
THE FRONT...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO ELY SUN AND MON AND SELY TUE. 
SOME LINGERING 4 FT SEAS POSSIBLY SAT MORNING BUT GENERALLY EXPECT 
2-3 FT SEAS THROUGH THE LONG TERM.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...CTC/SK
MARINE...RF/CTC/SK