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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDTSA Product Timestamp: 2012-03-15 08:17 UTC
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056 FXUS64 KTSA 150817 AFDTSA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 317 AM CDT THU MAR 15 2012 .DISCUSSION... MILD/HUMID CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS GENERALLY HOVERING AROUND 60F AREAWIDE. RADAR REMAINS QUIET...ALTHOUGH KEEPING AN EYE ON A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE NOTED ON CURRENT WATER VAPOR OVER WRN OK. THIS MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR ERN OK/WRN AR LATER THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY...BUT SHOULD SEE DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE/FAR WRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY COULD MAY A RUN FOR ERN OK FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. LATEST EXTENDED MODELS HAVE COME INTO REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE WRN U.S. TROF FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DEEP MERIDIONAL FLOW WILL LOCK IN GULF MOISTURE...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO THE ROCKIES AND HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE PLAINS. GIVEN THE SLOW EWD MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER WAVE...A PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WILL BE A STRONG POSSIBILITY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ALONG WITH AT LEAST A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER RISK. HAVE UPPED POPS AND QPF FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...AND WILL LIKELY SEE THESE VALUES RAISED EVEN FURTHER WITH LATER FORECASTS. THE SRN STREAM ENERGY MAY CLOSE OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS BY MID-WEEK...AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT E OF THE REGION BY LATE WEEK. UNSETTLED TO SAY THE LEAST. HAVE CONTINUED TO STAY CLOSE TO MEX GUIDANCE...WITH COOLER WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES E AND NWLY SFC FLOW DEVELOPS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 79 62 79 62 / 20 10 20 40 FSM 80 60 80 59 / 50 20 20 40 MLC 77 64 77 64 / 40 10 20 50 BVO 80 58 80 60 / 20 10 20 40 FYV 76 58 77 58 / 50 20 20 30 BYV 77 59 78 60 / 50 20 20 30 MKO 78 60 78 60 / 40 10 20 40 MIO 81 62 81 63 / 20 10 20 40 F10 78 62 77 63 / 30 10 20 40 HHW 77 62 75 61 / 40 10 20 30 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....18