954 
FXUS63 KFSD 081704
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1054 AM CST THU MAR 8 2012


.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 1054 AM CST/
SUNNY SKIES WILL REMAIN THE RULE TODAY OUTSIDE OF SOME HIGH CLOUDS 
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR FAR NORTHEAST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD 
OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK 
SO HAVE ONLY MADE VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. DID BUMP UP WINDS SLIGHTLY 
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE BUFFALO RIDGE AREA WHERE 20 TO 25 KT 
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 325 AM CST/
WILL BE A WARMER DAY ACROSS THE CWA WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF 
NEXT COLD FRONT. MAY SEE A FEW CLOUDS OVER NORTHEAST CWA THIS 
MORNING...BUT OVERALL A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS 
AFTERNOON WITH MIXING. H925 TEMPERATURES WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 
40S...WITH 50 TO 55 ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER. 

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS CWA TONIGHT AND WILL 
SWITCH WINDS TO NORTH OR NORTHEAST WITH LOW LEVEL COOLER AIR. DID 
LOWER LOWS A FEW DEGREES TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL 
DEVELOP ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 
EASTERN CWA WILL STRUGGLE A BIT TO WARM ON FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW 
WILL BE MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OFF OF HIGH SO EAST OF I29 WILL 
LIKELY ONLY SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50. FURTHER 
WEST...STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS MORE 
SOUTHWEST WILL PUSH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH WARMEST 
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST. LIKELY TO SEE A VERY HIGH TO 
EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL 
ISSUE AN RFD TO MENTION THIS.

ANOTHER MILD DAY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND DID BUMP UP HIGHS A FEW 
DEGREES. WILL SEE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S...BUT CANT RULE OUT A 70 
DEGREE READING. AGAIN WILL SEE A VERY HIGH AND POSSIBLY EXTREME FIRE 
DANGER OVER CWA ON SATURDAY. SOME CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE 
SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS SYSTEM BEGINS EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF 
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SYSTEM IS SLOWER THAN PROGGED AND WILL HOLD 
OFF ANY MENTION OF RAIN CHANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. 
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND MORE 
HIGH CLOUDS...HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE ABOUT 5 
DEGREES COOLER THAN SATURDAY. WITH SYSTEM A LITTLE SLOWER...DID 
INCREASE RAIN CHANCE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS 
SYSTEM AS EC AND GEM A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST SO RAIN MAY 
HAVE GREATER COVERAGE EAST OF I29 SUNDAY NIGHT. IF THIS 
HAPPENS...THEN MONDAY WILL BE COOLER ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO RAIN 
COOLED AIR AND MORE CLOUD COVER. COULD END UP BEING A LOT COOLER 
ACROSS THE EAST ON MONDAY IF THIS ENDS UP BEING THE CASE. SOMETHING 
TO WATCH AND ADJUST TODAY IF NECESSARY. DID LOWER TEMPS A FEW 
DEGREES ACROSS THE EAST ON MONDAY.

MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH GFS BEING 
FASTER WITH SUNDAYS SYSTEM...GFS BRINGS COLD FRONT THROUGH CWA ON 
TUESDAY WHILE EC HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WHILE GFS BRINGS WARMER 
AIR BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY. SO IF GFS IS RIGHT FOR TUESDAY...THEN 
HIGHS WOULD BE IN THE 50S WITH EC SOLUTION IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S 
AND THEN VICE VERSA ON WEDNESDAY WITH GFS TEMPERATURES WARMER. FOR 
NOW WILL NOT ADJUST TOO MUCH FROM CURRENT FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND 
WEDNESDAY.  

MILD WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH ALL OF NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL 
FOR RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEKEND. 

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY 
WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS 
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE 
SOUTHEAST BY AROUND 15Z FRI. COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP 
IN THE KHON AREA AFTER 09Z WHICH WILL DISSIPATE AROUND 12 TO 14Z. 

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$