724 
FXUS64 KHGX 031132
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
532 AM CST SAT MAR 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.AVIATION...
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED JUST OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH
GUSTY NORTH NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS OUR COASTAL COUNTIES THIS MORNING HAVE
FORMED INTO A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FROM NEAR LBX TO GLS
TO BPT. THIS LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AFFECTING LBX AND GLS. AN ADDITIONAL
LINE OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA EXTENDS FROM NEAR SAT TO JUST WEST
OF CLL ALONG THE 850MB FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE METRO TERMINALS BUT COULD IMPACT CLL AND POSSIBLY
UTS THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH NORTH WINDS DECREASING AFTER SUNSET
AND BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CST SAT MAR 3 2012/ 

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN ITEM OF CONCERN FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE RAIN CHANCES.
THE COLD FRONT WAS ALREADY OFF THE COAST AT 430 AM THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE
AND HELPING TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST...THE 850 MB
TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTH AND OFF THE COAST BY MID MORNING AND HELP
END THE RAINFALL. BEFORE THAT OCCURS...SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY
RECEIVE MORE RAINFALL BEHIND THE FRONT THAT WHAT OCCURRED LAST
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE MAIN 500 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AND A
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET UP FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE MAIN ITEM
OF CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE MUCH DRIER AIR MASS FILTERING IN
FROM THE NORTH. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. TONIGHT THE FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE TREND
TOWARD LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S INLAND AWAY FROM THE HOUSTON AND
COLLEGE STATION METRO AREAS.

WESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AND 
TUESDAY WHILE ONSHORE SURFACE WINDS WILL RETURN. THIS WILL BRING A
WARMING TREND ACROSS SE TX THROUGH MID WEEK. THE GFS LOOKED
SUSPECT DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK PERIOD AND PREFERRED THE
ECMWF AND THE HIGHER MEMBER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. WITH THIS IN
MIND...UPPED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
ECMWF THEN PUSHES A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. MODEL
INSTABILITY FORECASTS SUGGEST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. 

40

MARINE...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED JUST OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AND WILL BRING  
STRENGTHENING OFFSHORE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS THIS 
MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS AND 
ELEVATED SEAS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH 
CAUTION IN THE BAYS AND ADVISORY FLAGS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. 
CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE 
BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO TEXAS. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH CAUTION OR ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BY MID WEEK. 38

FIRE WEATHER...
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY  
FROM 10 AM THROUGH 6 PM. NORTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL COMBINE 
WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT TO PRODUCE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN SATURDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION AGAIN. RH VALUES WILL BE BELOW 25 PERCENT AGAIN ON SUNDAY
BUT LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD HELP TO MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
38

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      65  40  71  46  74 /  10   0   0   0  10 
HOUSTON (IAH)              67  42  72  46  75 /  20   0   0   0  10 
GALVESTON (GLS)            67  48  67  55  71 /  30   0   0   0  10 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS 
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...
     BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...
     GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
     MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
     TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS 
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...38