705 
FXUS61 KBGM 181804
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
104 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A A FEW SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. THE
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW LINGERING
FLURRIES IN THE FINGER LAKES REGION SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS QUIET WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10AM UPDATE...THE SNOW SQUALL HAS ALL BUT FELL APART ON ITS TREK
EAST. WITH NOT MUCH DEVELOPING BEHIND IT, WHICH IS CONTRARY TO THE
HRRR AND IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE FOR THE NAM, HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST
GRIDS ONCE AGAIN TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE.

9AM UPDATE...A SNOW SQUALL IS MOVING ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF SCHEDULE. THIS IS A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW...LASTING FROM
ABOUT 15 TO 20 MINUTES. VSBYS OF 1/4SM HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH
THIS SQUALL. GIVEN THIS, HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST ACCORDINGLY AND
ISSUED SPS DUE TO TRAVEL CONCERNS. ACCUMULATION WISE, NOT
EXPECTING MORE THAN ON HALF INCH UNDER THE HEAVIEST OF SNOW, AND
PROBABLY ONLY A COUPLE OF TENTHS OTHERWISE. 

645 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED FASTER BY ABOUT 3 HOURS...DUE TO APPARENT 
FASTER PACE BY SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO...AND THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED OCCLUDED FRONT NOW ALREADY CLOSING NEAR THE
WESTERN TIP OF NEW YORK. COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE
TRIPLE POINT...ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO NORTHERN OHIO. MODELS...EVEN
THE MORE RAPIDLY UPDATING HIGHER RESOLUTION ONES...ARE TRYING TO
CORRECT TOWARDS REALITY BUT ARE STILL WOEFULLY BEHIND. THIS
FORECAST UPDATE OF COURSE HAS RAMIFICATIONS ON SKY/PRECIP
TYPE/TEMPERATURE AS WELL...AND ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE AS NEEDED. 

THE GENERAL STORY REMAINS THE SAME HOWEVER...MIXED RAIN/SNOW
MOVING IN...WITH SOME WET SNOW SQUALLS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. IN CENTRAL NY...MAINLY INCH OR LESS 
ACCUMULATION OF WET SNOW...HIGHEST FOR THE HILLTOPS. INTO
NORTHEAST PA AND ESPECIALLY WYOMING VALLEY...LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
PROBABLY END UP WITH ONLY COLD RAIN SHOWERS...WITH WET SNOW
SHOWERS LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 
WHAT IS LEFT OF LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AROUND AND NORTH OF THRUWAY
IS COMING TO AN END AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ALOFT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS WITHIN A BRIEF BREAK IN CLOUDS AHEAD OF
NEXT SYSTEM ALREADY INBOUND. IN FACT...A MID DECK IS ALREADY
REACHING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE CAW.

SURFACE LOW OVER IS CURRENTLY OVER THE THUMB OF LOWER MICHIGAN
AND ZIPPING EAST. WARM AIR ADVECTION SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL SPREAD
A LITTLE BIT OF VERY LIGHT SNOW OR MIXED LIGHT SNOW/RAIN OVER
ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA MID MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BIGGER CONCERN IS WITH THE COLD FRONT...OR
PERHAPS BETTER DESCRIBED AS OCCLUDING FRONT. IT MOVES THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON WEST...TO LATE AFTERNOON CENTRAL...TO EARLY EVENING
EAST. ACCOMPANYING UPPER WAVE IS FAIRLY SHARP...WHICH WILL HELP
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES TO POINT THAT THERE WILL EVEN BE A SMALL BIT
OF CAPE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE LAKE PLAIN. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THAT
SHOWERS THAT FORM ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE SQUALLY. THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE ON MILD SIDE TODAY...I SUSPECT THAT
WITH THE SEMI-CONVECTIVE SHOWERS...QUICK COOLING WILL OCCUR WITH A
BURST OF WET SNOW...ESPECIALLY HILLTOPS. SO WHILE EXPECTING LESS
THAN AN INCH ACCUMULATION FOR VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA...IT WILL
PROBABLY COME IN A VERY SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME...WHICH COULD SLICK
UP ROADS BRIEFLY...PARTICULARLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SURFACE LOW LOSES DEFINITION...BUT A TROUGH/SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ZONE WILL HANG BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING. LOW
LEVEL SYNOPTIC MOISTURE LINGERING WITH THAT TROUGH...AND A 
NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO...WILL ALLOW SOME SNOW
SHOWERS TO PERSIST IN CENTRAL NEW YORK TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FINGER 
LAKES REGION. AGAIN THOUGH...EXPECTING MAINLY LESS THAN AN INCH OF
ADDITIONAL SNOW...WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ALREADY BEGINNING
QUICKLY ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY...THEN SETTLES OVERHEAD
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THOUGH THE BIG PICTURE IS
QUIET...DETAILS REVEAL THAT THERE IS MORE THAN MEETS THE EYE.
850MB TEMPERATURES SUNDAY IN THE LOWER MINUS-TEENS CELSIUS AND A
NORTH- NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS...WILL PROBABLY KEEP
STRATOCUMULUS DECK FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA...DESPITE VERY DRY
AIR MASS OVERALL. 925 RH FIELD IN THE NAM DEPICTS THIS WELL. BEST
CLOUD COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION TO SOUTHERN
TIER/SUSQUEHANNA REGIONS OF NEW YORK. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW
LINGERING FLURRIES SUNDAY MORNING. BECAUSE OF THE
STRATOCUMULUS...OPTED TO SIDE WITH THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE VERSUS
THE MAV FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY.

A FAIR AMOUNT OF THIS CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AS THE SURFACE HIGH FINALLY REACHES THE AREA
WITH VERY DRY AIR...WHAT REMAINS OF THE CLOUDS SHOULD FINALLY MIX
OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON. MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS MAINLY CLEAR...THOUGH
HIGH CIRRUS MAY TRY TO EDGE IN FROM THE WEST TOWARDS 12Z
TUESDAY...WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. EXPECTING GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS...AND THUS MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ON LOW END OF
MODEL GUIDANCE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE...
MODELS SIMILAR. ACTIVE MILD PATTERN CONTINUES. LARGE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSH OFF TO THE EAST EARLY
TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SNOW. ECMWF FASTER AND STRONGER
BUT STILL NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A LAKE RESPONSE. THU TO FRI A LARGE
SFC LOW TRACKS EAST JUST TO THE NORTH SO PROBABLY SNOW TO RAIN
THEN BACK TO SNOW. BEHIND THIS STORM NOT PARTICULARLY COLD FOR
MUCH OF A LAKE RESPONSE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. AGAIN SHORT LIVED
COLDER SPELL WITH A ZONAL FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1230 PM UPDATE...
MAINLY VFR AT PRESENT. SNOW SHOWERS STILL WILL AFFECT RME AND AVP
WITH THE INITIAL FRONT. CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY FALL TO IFR VSBYS
AND MVFR CIGS THE NEXT 2 HOURS. 

SFC LOW OVER EAST END OF LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TRACK
EAST THIS AFTN AND EVENING. COLDER AIR COMING IN ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW NOW SETTING OFF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS IN WRN NY. THESE
WILL MOVE EAST AND AFFECT CENTRAL NY TERMINALS STARTING 21Z. AGAIN
IFR VSBYS MOST LIKELY AT RME WITH MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS REST OF NY
IN SNOW SHOWERS.

TONIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO NW...CIGS WILL FALL
TO MVFR IN NY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ITH AND
SYR. LATE TONIGHT WITH NNW FLOW...WAA AND SOME DRIER AIR
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WITH ITH AND BGM HOLDING ONTO THE
MVFR CIGS THE LONGEST. ELM RME SYR SHOULD RISE TO VFR AROUND 12Z
SUNDAY.

S TO SW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS SHIFTING TO WEST THIS AFTN AT 10 KTS.
NW WINDS AT 5 TO 8 KTS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. 

.OUTLOOK...

SUN/MON/TUE MORN...MAINLY VFR. SUNDAY POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AT ITH
FROM LAKE INDUCED CLOUDS FROM CAYUGA LAKE.

TUE AFTN/THU...MVFR IN MIXED PRECIP.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SLI
NEAR TERM...MDP/SLI
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...TAC