National Weather Service Raw Text Product

949 
FXUS64 KFWD 131453
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
853 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012

.UPDATE...
SENDING UPDATE FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
ALSO HAVE TRIMMED THE POPS/WEATHER TO EASTERN HALF PER RADAR. 84 

&&

.AVIATION...
THE WINTER PRECIPITATION HAS NEARLY ENDED AT ALL THE TAF
SITES...BUT A DIFFICULT FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS DUE TO CEILING AND FOG CONCERNS.

LINGERING LIGHT SNOW MAY CONTINUE AT KDAL THROUGH 12Z...BUT
OTHERWISE THE WINTER PRECIPITATION HAS TRANSITIONED TO ALL RAIN
ACROSS THE TAF SITES. ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST AND THIS WILL BE THE FINAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD. EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN TO CONTINUE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. THE CEILING FORECAST IS RATHER DIFFICULT IN
THE SHORT TERM AS CEILINGS VARY WILDLY ACROSS THE REGION. STILL
THINK LOW MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES BETWEEN 13-15Z
AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...EVEN AFTER THE RAIN HAS
ENDED. CEILINGS WILL CLEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS
WEST WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE MOVE IN BEHIND A
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ADDITIONAL
MVFR CIGS WILL RETURN TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...BUT ONLY ONE MODEL IS SUGGESTING THIS AND THINK THE
DRIER WEST WINDS WILL PREVENT THIS FROM HAPPENING. THUS WILL
PREVAIL VFR CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...FOG MAY BE ANOTHER PROBLEM OVERNIGHT. ONLY THE NAM
MODEL IS SUGGESTING FOG OVERNIGHT BUT WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE TONIGHT...WILL SIDE WITH THE
NAM AND INTRODUCE FOG AROUND 05Z WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IFR VISIBILITIES MAY
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE IN THE CEILING TRENDS
TODAY AND FOG TRENDS OVERNIGHT IS NOT VERY HIGH AND SEVERAL
ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO BE MADE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

82/JLD


&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012/
A MIX OF WINTER PRECIP WILL BE ON THE DECREASE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. A BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...BUT A FINAL WAVE OF LIGHTER PRECIPITATION
NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS LATER THIS
MORNING/THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK SURFACE LOW... CURRENTLY
CENTERED NORTHWEST OF CORPUS CHRISTI...WILL PARTIALLY HINDER THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SO A MIX OF
SLEET...SNOW AND RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ZONES THROUGH SUNRISE OR A BIT AFTER. WE HAVE TRIMMED THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONES OUT OF THE ADVISORY SINCE THE WINTER PRECIPITATION
HAS ENDED THERE BUT WILL LEAVE THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ZONES IN THE
ADVISORY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND
FREEZING AND SOME PRECIPITATION CONTINUES. WE WILL MOST LIKELY
TRIM OR END THE ADVISORY BEFORE 7 AM IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL LIQUID BEFORE MIDDAY AND
END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSING UPPER
TROUGH. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH COULD SUPPORT
AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SO WILL LEAVE ISOLATED STORMS
MENTIONED.

BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM...
COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH TEXAS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SURFACE BASED
CAPE APPROACHES 1000 J/KG. ALL STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE
REGION AND DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A PACIFIC COLD FRONT.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST LATE IN THE
WEEK AND APPROACH NORTH TEXAS ON THE WEEKEND. THE EXTENDED MODELS
DISAGREE ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND ON THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THEREFORE...WE WILL MENTION ONLY LOW POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

A SMALL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. OVERALL...BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEK EXCEPT FOR
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY.

79



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  47  39  62  52  68 /  30   5   5  30  30 
WACO, TX              49  38  66  54  69 /  30   5   5  30  40 
PARIS, TX             43  37  60  43  67 / 100  10  10  20  40 
DENTON, TX            46  33  60  50  69 /  30   5   5  30  30 
MCKINNEY, TX          43  34  59  48  69 /  70  10   5  20  40 
DALLAS, TX            47  39  60  52  68 /  50   5   5  20  40 
TERRELL, TX           43  39  61  51  67 / 100  10   5  20  40 
CORSICANA, TX         46  41  65  52  68 /  90  10   5  20  50 
TEMPLE, TX            52  38  72  57  70 /  30   5   5  30  40 
MINERAL WELLS, TX     55  34  62  50  69 /  10   5   5  40  30 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR 
TXZ091>095-102>104-117.


&&

$$

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