079 
FXUS64 KCRP 312046
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
246 PM CST TUE JAN 31 2012

.SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FCST ISSUE 
TONIGHT WILL BE FOG. AM EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO DVLP 
OVERNIGHT...COULD EVEN BECOME WIDESPREAD...BUT AM NOT SURE IF DENSE 
FOG WILL BE WIDESPREAD OR MORE LOCALIZED. THE FCST SOUNDINGS LOOK 
CONDUCIVE FOR DENSE FOG AND MOS GUIDANCE HAS CAT 1 FOR VSBY'S...BUT 
WILL LET EVENING SHIFT MONITOR TRENDS TO DETERMINE IF WIDESPREAD 
DENSE FOG WILL DVLP WARRANTING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. ON WED...THE MODELS
PROG AN INVERTED COASTAL TROF TO DVLP AND A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTD TO MOVE S TOWARD THE AREA BUT THEN MELDS WITH THE ALREADY
NE FLOW FROM THE TROF...LEADING TO AN INDISTINCT STALLED BDRY
SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA. MODELS PROG A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE
TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA...AND COMBINE WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FROM THE STALLED BDRY...RESULTING IN 
PRECIP. KEPT JUST A SLIGHT CHC FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND NE CWA
DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS. GIVEN THE WEAK TO MOD
CAPE FCSTD FOR WED...DID LEAVE MENTION OF TSRA'S IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE BDRY LIFTS/DISSIPATES THROUGH WED EVE. AREAS OF FOG ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN WED NIGHT. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABV NORMAL THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM.

&&

.MARINE...A WEAK TO MODERATE SE FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT THEN 
RELAXES ON WED AS A BOUNDARY ENTERS AND STALLS ACROSS S TX AND 
RELAXES THE GRADIENT. A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED THRU WED AND 
WED NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND GULF MOISTURE WILL COMBINE 
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHRA'S AND TSRA'S ON WED.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A QUASI-STATIONARY FNTL 
BNDRY LYING ACROSS THE NRN CWA ON THU MORNING WL GRADUALLY MOVE 
NORTH OF THE CWA BY THU AFTN AS A WARM FRONT. THE ECMWF/CANADIAN 
SOLNS PROG A SRN STREAM S/WV INTERACTING WITH THIS BOUNDARY TO 
PRODUCE SCATTERED PCPN ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON THU.  
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE A WEAKER S/WV AND A MUCH DRIER 
AIRMASS IN PLACE. WL GO WITH A COMPROMISE FOR NOW AND GO WITH SLIGHT 
CHC POPS FOR THU. FOG WL LKLY BE DENSE AT TIMES THU MORNING FOR MANY 
LOCATIONS GIVEN THE LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND VERY MOIST BOUNDARY 
LAYER. AN INCREASING SE/S LLJ THU NIGHT INTO FRI WL LEAD TO BETTER 
CHANCES OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.  SO...WL MAINTAIN 
SLIGHT CHC POPS GOING INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. THE ONE EXCEPTION WL BE 
ACROSS THE ERN ONE-THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER 
MOISTURE WL LKLY BE DEEPER.  WL PLACE CHC POPS IN THIS RGN.  AS FOR 
THE TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...WL LEAN TWDS THE MIDDLE OF THE 
ROAD GFS SOLN WHICH PROGS THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA ON SATURDAY 
MORNING. FRONTAL FORCING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO 
WARRANT CHC POPS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY 
MORNING. PER BOTH THE CANADIAN AND GFS SOLNS...A DRYING TREND IS 
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WL LKLY BE ON 
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN ADDITIONAL SRN STREAM S/WV ENERGY ADVECTS 
LIFT/MOISTURE OVER THE COOL DRY AIRMASS. FOR NOW...WL GO WITH SLIGHT 
CHC POPS FOR THIS SYSTEM. ADJUSTED TEMPS SLIGHTLY UPWARD IN ADVANCE 
OF THE FRONT AND SLIGHTLY DOWNWARD AFTER THE FRONT. ESSENTIALLY 
CONSENSUS MODEL TEMPS WERE USED THROUGH MUCH OF THE FCST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    63  79  63  77  65  /  10  10  10  20  20 
VICTORIA          63  77  60  75  63  /  10  20  10  20  20 
LAREDO            64  83  65  82  64  /  10  10  10  20  20 
ALICE             63  82  62  79  64  /  10  10  10  20  20 
ROCKPORT          65  75  65  72  64  /  10  20  10  20  20 
COTULLA           62  79  62  77  62  /  10  10  10  20  20 
KINGSVILLE        63  82  63  80  65  /  10  10  10  20  20 
NAVY CORPUS       66  75  65  74  64  /  10  10  10  20  20 

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TE/81...SHORT TERM
MB/80...LONG TERM