National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDFSD
Dates interpreted at 00:00 UTC Found 2 products at the given pil and timestamp. Scroll down to see them all.
Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDFSD
Product Timestamp: 2012-01-30 21:10 UTC
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980 FXUS63 KFSD 302110 AFDFSD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 310 AM CST MON JAN 30 2012 .DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 310 AM CST/ WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DECK OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...WHILE LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT BEHIND A MEAGER COLD FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE RATHER MILD WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES MIXED IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. NOT MUCH COOLING EXPECTED TO FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...AS NEAR SURFACE AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ONLY DROP TO AROUND 0C OR SO. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER...ALBEIT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND SHOULD PEAK NEAR 50 IN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY... TO NEAR 40 IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. NOT A LOT HAPPENING IN THE INTERMEDIATE TERM. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING DRY WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ZONAL FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOME UPPER RIDGING. THEN AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE WEST OF THIS AREA THROUGHOUT THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE NICE WEATHER...WITHOUT A LOT OF WIND IN STORE AND MILD TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /MJF IN THE EXTENDED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FOR NOW...STUCK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. FOR THE DETAILS...DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE MAP LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN THE SPAGHETTI PLOTS EXHIBITED BY THE 12Z GFS 500MB FIELD SHOW A LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD BEGINNING AS SOON AS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MORPHING INTO A MESS BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND GEM GLOBAL ARE THE MOST BULLISH IN BRINGING A LARGE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION/SNOWFALL INTO THIS AREA IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THATS BECAUSE THEY CLOSE OFF THE UPPER LOW TO OUR S AND SW LATE THIS WEEK...BRINGING UP A TON OF SATURATION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...THEN MOVING IT ALL NORTHWARD. THE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH MORE SUBDUED. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THE UPPER LOW INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND THUS THE NORTHERN STREAM CUTS THIS AREA OFF THIS WEEKEND. THE UKMET HAS YET ANOTHER SOLUTION OF BRINGING THE UPPER LOW EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT IS WEAK. THE 84HR NAM IS OFF ON ITS OWN ALSO. AFTER PERUSING OVER THE GEM GLOBAL SPAGHETTI PLOTS...MOST OF ITS MEMBERS AND THE GEM ENSEMBLE MEAN AT 500MB DO BRING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND VERY SIMILAR TO THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF. FURTHERMORE...THE SPREAD OFF OF THE GFS SHOWS A HUGE AMOUNT OF VARIATION WITH THE BIG UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD. BECAUSE OF THIS...AND SINCE MANY GEM MEMBERS RESEMBLED THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF...DECIDED TO HEDGE TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST THAN OTHERWISE ADVERTISED BY THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND GEM. THIS MEANS ONLY CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME AND TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE MILD THAN WHAT THE DETERMINISTIC GEM AND GFS WILL ADVERTISE. BUT WILL MONITOR FOR CHANGES. /MJF && .AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/ VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS DO PICK UP AGAIN TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KT AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$
428 FXUS63 KFSD 302113 AFDFSD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 310 PM CST MON JAN 30 2012 .DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 310 PM CST/ WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DECK OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT...WHILE LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SWITCH AROUND TO THE WEST NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT BEHIND A MEAGER COLD FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE RATHER MILD WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES MIXED IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. NOT MUCH COOLING EXPECTED TO FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT...AS NEAR SURFACE AND MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ONLY DROP TO AROUND 0C OR SO. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER...ALBEIT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND SHOULD PEAK NEAR 50 IN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY... TO NEAR 40 IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA. NOT A LOT HAPPENING IN THE INTERMEDIATE TERM. ANOTHER QUICK MOVING DRY WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ZONAL FLOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOME UPPER RIDGING. THEN AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE WEST OF THIS AREA THROUGHOUT THE ROCKIES BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE NICE WEATHER...WITHOUT A LOT OF WIND IN STORE AND MILD TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. /MJF IN THE EXTENDED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. FOR NOW...STUCK WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. FOR THE DETAILS...DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE MAP LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EVEN THE SPAGHETTI PLOTS EXHIBITED BY THE 12Z GFS 500MB FIELD SHOW A LARGE DEGREE OF SPREAD BEGINNING AS SOON AS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MORPHING INTO A MESS BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND GEM GLOBAL ARE THE MOST BULLISH IN BRINGING A LARGE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION/SNOWFALL INTO THIS AREA IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. THATS BECAUSE THEY CLOSE OFF THE UPPER LOW TO OUR S AND SW LATE THIS WEEK...BRINGING UP A TON OF SATURATION AND WARM AIR ADVECTION...THEN MOVING IT ALL NORTHWARD. THE OTHER MODELS ARE MUCH MORE SUBDUED. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THE UPPER LOW INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND THUS THE NORTHERN STREAM CUTS THIS AREA OFF THIS WEEKEND. THE UKMET HAS YET ANOTHER SOLUTION OF BRINGING THE UPPER LOW EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT IS WEAK. THE 84HR NAM IS OFF ON ITS OWN ALSO. AFTER PERUSING OVER THE GEM GLOBAL SPAGHETTI PLOTS...MOST OF ITS MEMBERS AND THE GEM ENSEMBLE MEAN AT 500MB DO BRING A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS THIS WEEKEND VERY SIMILAR TO THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF. FURTHERMORE...THE SPREAD OFF OF THE GFS SHOWS A HUGE AMOUNT OF VARIATION WITH THE BIG UPPER LOW MOVING EASTWARD. BECAUSE OF THIS...AND SINCE MANY GEM MEMBERS RESEMBLED THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF...DECIDED TO HEDGE TOWARD A DRIER FORECAST THAN OTHERWISE ADVERTISED BY THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND GEM. THIS MEANS ONLY CHANCE POPS ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME AND TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE MILD THAN WHAT THE DETERMINISTIC GEM AND GFS WILL ADVERTISE. BUT WILL MONITOR FOR CHANGES. /MJF && .AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE/ VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY WITH WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS DO PICK UP AGAIN TO AROUND 10 TO 20 KT AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$