403 
FXUS64 KBMX 302110
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
310 PM CST MON JAN 30 2012

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS 
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.  CLEAR SKIES FOR THE 
MOST PART...MAYBE A COUPLE OF HIGH WHISPY CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 
PART OF THE STATE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS.  
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN HEADING OUR WAY TONIGHT...BUT BECAUSE OF 
THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE...IT WON'T BRING IN ANY RAIN FOR US.  
WHAT IT WILL DO IS BRING IN SOME CLOUD COVER AND START US DOWN THE 
PATH OF MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER ON 
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.  I BELIEVE WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT JUST RAIN 
WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAYBE A PASSING RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT WITH NO 
SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED 500MB TROUGH CAUSING 
THIS SYSTEM...THERE JUST DOESN'T LOOK TO BE ENOUGH ENERGY OR 
INSTABILITY TO CAUSE ANYTHING STRONG...LET ALONE SEVERE.  SOLUTIONS 
VARY FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT TAKING A COMBINATION OF EACH...WITH 
SUGGESTION FROM HPC BEING THE LATEST...WILL HOLD FIRM WITH A 
THURSDAY MORNING PASSAGE.

MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN BEYOND 
THURSDAY...BUT THERE ARE A FEW SIMILARITIES TO HELP WITH THE MEDIUM 
AND LONG RANGE FORECAST TODAY.  THE EURO...WHICH HAS BEEN THE 
WETTEST SOLUTION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS...REMAINS WET.  THIS IS 
GOOD BECAUSE IT IS FINALLY OFFERING SOME CONTINUITY IN SOLUTION.  
ADDITIONALLY...THE GFS IS LEANING TOWARDS A WETTER SOLUTION OVER THE 
WEEKEND AS WELL.  BECAUSE WE WERE POP-LESS PAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON 
IN OUR LAST FORECAST PACKAGE...I'M NOT GOING TO PUT IN WHOLESALE 
CHANGES...BUT I WILL INCREASE POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND 10-20 
PERCENT.  THIS WILL GIVE US A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH PERIOD THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND...AND CLEAR THINGS OUT FOR MONDAY.  I'M STILL NOT INCREDIBLY 
CONFIDENT IN THAT FORECAST...BUT LIKE I SAID THINGS ARE LEANING THAT 
WAY.  THIS WOULD ALSO MEAN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES BOTH DURING 
THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE.  HAVE ADJUSTED 
THESE ACCORDINGLY AS WELL.

THE PARTICULARS ABOUT THE ADDITIONAL RAIN ARE ALSO IN QUESTION.  THE 
GFS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY MORE POTENT SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY...WITH THE EURO 
SUGGESTING ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT MORE OF A POST-FRONTAL 
SOLUTION.  WILL JUST INCLUDE CHANCE THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON 
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND SEE IF THE NEXT COUPLE OF RUNS BRING 
ANY MORE CONTINUITY IN THE LONG TERM.

27

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. WEAK FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF A 
SURFACE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS BELOW 
10KTS...WITH SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS THE SOUTH. 

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     35  66  47  66  51 /   0  10  10  40  50 
ANNISTON    34  67  48  66  52 /   0  10  10  40  40 
BIRMINGHAM  37  67  52  67  53 /   0  10  10  50  40 
TUSCALOOSA  37  69  53  68  53 /   0  10  20  50  40 
CALERA      37  67  51  66  54 /   0  10  10  40  40 
AUBURN      37  66  49  65  52 /   0  10  10  40  30 
MONTGOMERY  39  69  51  66  54 /   0  10  10  50  30 
TROY        39  69  49  66  53 /   0  10  10  50  30 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

&&

$$

27/14