081 
FXUS63 KAPX 301100
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
600 AM EST MON JAN 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 325 AM/

THE CHILL OF WINTER WILL END TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE 
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL TRIGGER A BURST OF LIGHT SNOW TODAY...WITH A 
COUPLE OF INCHES OF NEW SNOW BLANKETING ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. 
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... 
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL INTRODUCE 
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A LITTLE 
RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. THEN DRY AND FAIR WEATHER IS 
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 325 AM/...TODAY

PROLONGED W/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WIND 
DOWN EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO FALLING INVERSION HEIGHTS... 
LOW LEVEL DRYING AND BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS AS THE NARROW SURFACE 
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. KMQT RADAR STILL 
SHOWS A WELL-ORGANIZED DOMINANT BAND OF LAKE SNOW STREAMING INTO 
PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY. HOWEVER...THIS BAND WILL SOON BEGIN TO 
SHIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF THE COUNTY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE SW. 
REGIONAL SURFACE OBS ARE ALREADY SHOWING THIS TREND...AND SOON THIS 
PERSISTENT BAND WILL RESPOND.

IN THE MEANTIME...UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW A STEADY INCREASE IN MID 
LEVEL RETURNS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS MOIST 
ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE NE OF AN APPROACHING WARM 
FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NE INTO SRN LWR MICHIGAN BY THIS 
AFTERNOON. IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT (I285) WILL CONTINUE TO 
DEVELOP ALONG AND NE OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH DEEP MOISTURE POOLING 
ALONG AND NE OF THE FRONT AS WELL. BROAD AREA OF  700-500 MB OMEGA 
AND DIV-Q DEVELOP IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT BY MIDDAY ON THE NOSE OF 
A MODEST 300 MB JET MAX DIVING SE OUT OF S CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE 
WRN GREAT LAKES. WINDOW OF BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE GENERALLY 
6 TO 8 HOURS...BUT WE COULD SEE UP TO A HALF AN INCH PER HOUR 
SNOWFALL RATES DURING THIS TIME. SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE 
DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS STRENGTHENING  LOW LEVEL WAA 
MAKES SNOW INCREASINGLY WET. MODELS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME SLEET MAY 
MIX WITH THE SNOW IN OUR FAR SE COUNTIES BEFORE DIMINISHING TO SOME 
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING THANKS TO DRY 
MID LEVEL AIR NOSING INTO THE REGION AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES. 
STILL EXPECT A GENERAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FROM THIS EVENT.

LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF ERN UPR...THE 
STRAITS AND FAR NW LWR MICHIGAN AS FLOW BRIEFLY SHIFT TO THE 
SW...PROVIDING THAT FAMOUSLY LONG NRN LAKE MICHIGAN FETCH. THIS 
OCCURS WHICH DELTA T'S ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION. 
HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED...THIS SW FLOW IS BRIEF THIS MORNING AND LOW 
LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE SOUTH AND EVEN SE DURING 
THE AFTERNOON. THUS...AT THIS TIME...EXPECT THE TYPICAL SW FLOW 
AREAS WILL SEE SOME BRIEF ENHANCEMENT...AMOUNTING TO MAYBE AN 
ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW. CERTAINLY THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE 
MONITORED FOR MORE PERSISTENT LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAN CURRENTLY 
EXPECTED...WHICH COULD LEAD TO ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL IF LOW 
LEVEL WINDS ARE SLOWER TO BACK TO THE SOUTH.

RUNYAN

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 325 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND

WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD...REACHING THE STRAITS BY 
12Z TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY STALL IN THIS AREA AS THE 
ASSOCIATED UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST THRU LAKE SUPERIOR 
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION 
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...GRADUALLY ENDING OUR LIGHT 
SYNOPTIC SNOW THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL 
TRANSITION TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG AS AMPLE LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND DECENT SHEAR DEVELOPS AT 
THE TOP OF THAT MOIST LAYER. EXPECT BEST CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE 
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN THANKS 
TO UPSLOPE FLOW AND TO ERN UPR MICHIGAN JUST NORTH OF THE STALLED 
WARM FRONT. LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG 
WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE BUT 
LIGHT PRECIP AGAIN INCREASES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE 
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE PRECIP WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT GIVEN 
LIMITED MOISTURE AS SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR STILL HOLDS OVER THE 
REGION...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WARM AIR MAKES ONE LAST SURGE 
NORTHWARD IMMEDIATELY HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON WILL SURGE INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS ERN UPR MICHIGAN AND 
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN. NO DOUBT THE WARM 
AIR AND LIGHT RAIN WILL ERODE AT LEAST SOME OF OUR SNOWPACK. HIGH 
TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL SURGE INTO THE UPPER 30S

THE LOW WILL SLIDE NORTH OF ERN UPR MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING... 
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THRU OUR CWA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. ANY REMAINING 
LIGHT LIQUID PRECIP WILL BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW LATE 
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING BY WEDNESDAY AS ALL MID/UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE STRIPS AWAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL 
LIKELY STICK AROUND THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT DRY WEATHER IS 
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL 
ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO 
NEAR 40 DEGREES.

RUNYAN

REST OF THE FCST BEGINNING 12Z/THU: 

MODELS: PMDEPD REVIEWED. THE GENERAL THEME WILL BE AN AMPLIFYING WRN 
N AMERICA RIDGE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK...GRADUALLY FOLDING OVER FRI. 
ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAKING WILL RESULT IN THE TROF /FCST TO MOVE 
ONSHORE ON THE W COAST WED MRNG/ TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SRN ROCKIES THU 
AND EJECT ONTO THE SRN PLAINS FRI. THIS ULTIMATELY LEADS TO 
CYCLOGENESIS /S OF THE GTLKS/ ALONG THE FRONT THAT MOVES THRU HERE 
WED. THIS FITS THE UPPER PATTERN AND MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON 
THIS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER... SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN 
WHICH TROF INITIATES IT...WHEN AND WHERE. THIS HAS POTENTIAL TO BE 
AT LEAST A MDT WINTER STORM OVER MUCH OF THE ERN USA. NO GUARANTEES 
IT AFFECTS NRN MI...BUT ITS WITHIN THE RANGE OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES.

UNCERTAINTY IS SO GREAT THAT WINTER STORM PACIFIC RECON FLIGHTS WILL 
BE FLOWN EARLY THIS WEEK. AS ONE EXAMPLE...12Z/29 GFS ENS EXTREMES 
PLACE A CLOSED 500 MB LOW ON IN THE IN-IL BORDER AND ANOTHER OVER NM!

00Z GFS ENS SUGGEST THIS UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM AN INTENSE /SUB 970/ 
LOW FCST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF AK THU. THIS RESULTS IN DOWNSTREAM 
PROBLEMS WITH THE RIDGE AMPLITUDE.

TEMPS: ABOVE OR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THRU NEXT MON. SOME LOCATIONS MAY 
SEE MULTIPLE DAYS OF 40+F. THU AND FRI LOOK DRY OR NO APPRECIABLE 
PCPN. SAT AND SUN ARE UP FOR QUESTION.

THE DAILIES AS WE SEE THEM NOW: 

THU: A SHRTWV TROF WILL BE OVERHEAD AT DAYBREAK BUT DEPART AS THE 
TRAILING RIDGE MOVES IN. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OH 
VALLEY. PROBABLY M/CLOUDY TO START BUT BECOMING P/CLOUDY. FCST IS 
DRY FOR NOW. WE'RE CURRENTLY FCSTG 32-37F...BUT ANY APPRECIABLE SUN 
AND THESE TEMPS COULD BE 3-5F TOO COOL. WE'VE NOTED 00Z MEX HAS 40F 
AT TVC.

FRI: WE MAY HAVE AN INCONSEQUENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACH FROM THE 
N. STRONG POSITIVELY ORIENTED SFC HIGH EASES IN FROM THE NRN PLAINS. 
CONTINUED DRY. LOW-LEVEL NE FLOW DEVELOPS. IT'S STILL LOOKING MILD. 
MEX HAS 41F AT TVC.

SAT-SUN: HIGH PRES ARCS W-NW-N OF THE GTLKS. LOW PRES COULD BE 
APPROACHING FROM THE S. 00Z GFS ENS HAS 12 MB SPREAD CENTERED NEAR 
MLI. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE MARGINAL SUGGESTING WE MAY HAVE TO 
DEAL WITH MULTIPLE PCPN TYPES. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD STAY TUNED AS WE 
ARE ABLE TO DETERMINE FCST DETAILS.

KEEP IN MIND THAT ESPECIALLY SAT-SUN COULD BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL 
CHANGES.  

PATTERN BEYOND SUN FEB 5TH: AFTER MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS 
UPCOMING WEEK...WE CONTINUE TO SEE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN TO WINTER 
SOMETIME DURING THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF FEB. THE CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK 
NOW HAS TEMPS FCST NEAR NORMAL /SOMETHING WE'VE NOT SEE OFTEN THIS 
WINTER/. THIS MEANS COLDER TEMPS RETURN. THE GFS ENS ARE RESOLVING A 
PIECE OF ARCTIC COLD BREAKING OFF NEAR THE POLE NEXT SUN AS WRN N 
AMERICA RIDGE EXPANDS FURTHER N ABOVE THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. THIS CUTS 
OFF THE MILD PACIFIC FLOW OVER CANADA...RESULTING IN A MORE N-S 
ORIENTATION. BOTH 00Z ECMWF/GFS RUNS HAVE IT.

HALBLAUB

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 325 AM/

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO 
FALL JUST SHORT OF SCA CRITERIA. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...AND SCA'S MAY BE 
NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 600 AM/...VALID FOR 12Z TAFS

WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW DRIVEN BY WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL DEVELOP 
FROM SW TO NE ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU 
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR 
THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND 
AREAS OF FOG THIS EVENING...MAINLY IMPACTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN 
REGIONS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

685 
FXUS63 KAPX 301100
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
600 AM EST MON JAN 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 325 AM/

THE CHILL OF WINTER WILL END TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE 
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL TRIGGER A BURST OF LIGHT SNOW TODAY...WITH A 
COUPLE OF INCHES OF NEW SNOW BLANKETING ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN. 
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... 
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS WILL INTRODUCE 
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A LITTLE 
RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY. THEN DRY AND FAIR WEATHER IS 
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 325 AM/...TODAY

PROLONGED W/NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WIND 
DOWN EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO FALLING INVERSION HEIGHTS... 
LOW LEVEL DRYING AND BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS AS THE NARROW SURFACE 
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION. KMQT RADAR STILL 
SHOWS A WELL-ORGANIZED DOMINANT BAND OF LAKE SNOW STREAMING INTO 
PORTIONS OF CHIPPEWA COUNTY. HOWEVER...THIS BAND WILL SOON BEGIN TO 
SHIFT NORTHWARD OUT OF THE COUNTY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO THE SW. 
REGIONAL SURFACE OBS ARE ALREADY SHOWING THIS TREND...AND SOON THIS 
PERSISTENT BAND WILL RESPOND.

IN THE MEANTIME...UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW A STEADY INCREASE IN MID 
LEVEL RETURNS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS MOIST 
ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE NE OF AN APPROACHING WARM 
FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NE INTO SRN LWR MICHIGAN BY THIS 
AFTERNOON. IMPRESSIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT (I285) WILL CONTINUE TO 
DEVELOP ALONG AND NE OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH DEEP MOISTURE POOLING 
ALONG AND NE OF THE FRONT AS WELL. BROAD AREA OF  700-500 MB OMEGA 
AND DIV-Q DEVELOP IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT BY MIDDAY ON THE NOSE OF 
A MODEST 300 MB JET MAX DIVING SE OUT OF S CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE 
WRN GREAT LAKES. WINDOW OF BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL BE GENERALLY 
6 TO 8 HOURS...BUT WE COULD SEE UP TO A HALF AN INCH PER HOUR 
SNOWFALL RATES DURING THIS TIME. SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS WILL BE 
DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS STRENGTHENING  LOW LEVEL WAA 
MAKES SNOW INCREASINGLY WET. MODELS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME SLEET MAY 
MIX WITH THE SNOW IN OUR FAR SE COUNTIES BEFORE DIMINISHING TO SOME 
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING THANKS TO DRY 
MID LEVEL AIR NOSING INTO THE REGION AS THE WARM FRONT ARRIVES. 
STILL EXPECT A GENERAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FROM THIS EVENT.

LAKE ENHANCEMENT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF ERN UPR...THE 
STRAITS AND FAR NW LWR MICHIGAN AS FLOW BRIEFLY SHIFT TO THE 
SW...PROVIDING THAT FAMOUSLY LONG NRN LAKE MICHIGAN FETCH. THIS 
OCCURS WHICH DELTA T'S ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR LAKE SNOW PRODUCTION. 
HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED...THIS SW FLOW IS BRIEF THIS MORNING AND LOW 
LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BACK TO THE SOUTH AND EVEN SE DURING 
THE AFTERNOON. THUS...AT THIS TIME...EXPECT THE TYPICAL SW FLOW 
AREAS WILL SEE SOME BRIEF ENHANCEMENT...AMOUNTING TO MAYBE AN 
ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW. CERTAINLY THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE 
MONITORED FOR MORE PERSISTENT LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAN CURRENTLY 
EXPECTED...WHICH COULD LEAD TO ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL IF LOW 
LEVEL WINDS ARE SLOWER TO BACK TO THE SOUTH.

RUNYAN

&&

.LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 325 AM/...TONIGHT AND BEYOND

WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD...REACHING THE STRAITS BY 
12Z TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY STALL IN THIS AREA AS THE 
ASSOCIATED UPSTREAM SURFACE LOW TRACKS EAST THRU LAKE SUPERIOR 
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION 
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...GRADUALLY ENDING OUR LIGHT 
SYNOPTIC SNOW THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES WILL 
TRANSITION TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG AS AMPLE LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND DECENT SHEAR DEVELOPS AT 
THE TOP OF THAT MOIST LAYER. EXPECT BEST CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE 
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN THANKS 
TO UPSLOPE FLOW AND TO ERN UPR MICHIGAN JUST NORTH OF THE STALLED 
WARM FRONT. LOW CLOUDS...PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG 
WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE BUT 
LIGHT PRECIP AGAIN INCREASES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE 
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WHILE PRECIP WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT GIVEN 
LIMITED MOISTURE AS SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR STILL HOLDS OVER THE 
REGION...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE ALL LIQUID 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE WARM AIR MAKES ONE LAST SURGE 
NORTHWARD IMMEDIATELY HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON WILL SURGE INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS ERN UPR MICHIGAN AND 
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN. NO DOUBT THE WARM 
AIR AND LIGHT RAIN WILL ERODE AT LEAST SOME OF OUR SNOWPACK. HIGH 
TEMPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL SURGE INTO THE UPPER 30S

THE LOW WILL SLIDE NORTH OF ERN UPR MICHIGAN TUESDAY EVENING... 
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THRU OUR CWA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. ANY REMAINING 
LIGHT LIQUID PRECIP WILL BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW LATE 
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING BY WEDNESDAY AS ALL MID/UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE STRIPS AWAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL 
LIKELY STICK AROUND THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT DRY WEATHER IS 
EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL STILL BE WELL 
ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO 
NEAR 40 DEGREES.

RUNYAN

REST OF THE FCST BEGINNING 12Z/THU: 

MODELS: PMDEPD REVIEWED. THE GENERAL THEME WILL BE AN AMPLIFYING WRN 
N AMERICA RIDGE THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK...GRADUALLY FOLDING OVER FRI. 
ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAKING WILL RESULT IN THE TROF /FCST TO MOVE 
ONSHORE ON THE W COAST WED MRNG/ TO AMPLIFY OVER THE SRN ROCKIES THU 
AND EJECT ONTO THE SRN PLAINS FRI. THIS ULTIMATELY LEADS TO 
CYCLOGENESIS /S OF THE GTLKS/ ALONG THE FRONT THAT MOVES THRU HERE 
WED. THIS FITS THE UPPER PATTERN AND MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON 
THIS FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER... SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN 
WHICH TROF INITIATES IT...WHEN AND WHERE. THIS HAS POTENTIAL TO BE 
AT LEAST A MDT WINTER STORM OVER MUCH OF THE ERN USA. NO GUARANTEES 
IT AFFECTS NRN MI...BUT ITS WITHIN THE RANGE OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES.

UNCERTAINTY IS SO GREAT THAT WINTER STORM PACIFIC RECON FLIGHTS WILL 
BE FLOWN EARLY THIS WEEK. AS ONE EXAMPLE...12Z/29 GFS ENS EXTREMES 
PLACE A CLOSED 500 MB LOW ON IN THE IN-IL BORDER AND ANOTHER OVER NM!

00Z GFS ENS SUGGEST THIS UNCERTAINTY STEMS FROM AN INTENSE /SUB 970/ 
LOW FCST TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF AK THU. THIS RESULTS IN DOWNSTREAM 
PROBLEMS WITH THE RIDGE AMPLITUDE.

TEMPS: ABOVE OR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THRU NEXT MON. SOME LOCATIONS MAY 
SEE MULTIPLE DAYS OF 40+F. THU AND FRI LOOK DRY OR NO APPRECIABLE 
PCPN. SAT AND SUN ARE UP FOR QUESTION.

THE DAILIES AS WE SEE THEM NOW: 

THU: A SHRTWV TROF WILL BE OVERHEAD AT DAYBREAK BUT DEPART AS THE 
TRAILING RIDGE MOVES IN. SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE OH 
VALLEY. PROBABLY M/CLOUDY TO START BUT BECOMING P/CLOUDY. FCST IS 
DRY FOR NOW. WE'RE CURRENTLY FCSTG 32-37F...BUT ANY APPRECIABLE SUN 
AND THESE TEMPS COULD BE 3-5F TOO COOL. WE'VE NOTED 00Z MEX HAS 40F 
AT TVC.

FRI: WE MAY HAVE AN INCONSEQUENTIAL BACKDOOR FRONT APPROACH FROM THE 
N. STRONG POSITIVELY ORIENTED SFC HIGH EASES IN FROM THE NRN PLAINS. 
CONTINUED DRY. LOW-LEVEL NE FLOW DEVELOPS. IT'S STILL LOOKING MILD. 
MEX HAS 41F AT TVC.

SAT-SUN: HIGH PRES ARCS W-NW-N OF THE GTLKS. LOW PRES COULD BE 
APPROACHING FROM THE S. 00Z GFS ENS HAS 12 MB SPREAD CENTERED NEAR 
MLI. THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE MARGINAL SUGGESTING WE MAY HAVE TO 
DEAL WITH MULTIPLE PCPN TYPES. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD STAY TUNED AS WE 
ARE ABLE TO DETERMINE FCST DETAILS.

KEEP IN MIND THAT ESPECIALLY SAT-SUN COULD BE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANTIAL 
CHANGES.  

PATTERN BEYOND SUN FEB 5TH: AFTER MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THIS 
UPCOMING WEEK...WE CONTINUE TO SEE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN TO WINTER 
SOMETIME DURING THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF FEB. THE CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK 
NOW HAS TEMPS FCST NEAR NORMAL /SOMETHING WE'VE NOT SEE OFTEN THIS 
WINTER/. THIS MEANS COLDER TEMPS RETURN. THE GFS ENS ARE RESOLVING A 
PIECE OF ARCTIC COLD BREAKING OFF NEAR THE POLE NEXT SUN AS WRN N 
AMERICA RIDGE EXPANDS FURTHER N ABOVE THE ARCTIC CIRCLE. THIS CUTS 
OFF THE MILD PACIFIC FLOW OVER CANADA...RESULTING IN A MORE N-S 
ORIENTATION. BOTH 00Z ECMWF/GFS RUNS HAVE IT.

HALBLAUB

&&

.MARINE.../ISSUED AT 325 AM/

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO 
FALL JUST SHORT OF SCA CRITERIA. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...AND SCA'S MAY BE 
NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 600 AM/...VALID FOR 12Z TAFS

WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW DRIVEN BY WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL DEVELOP 
FROM SW TO NE ACROSS NRN LWR MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU 
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR 
THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE AND 
AREAS OF FOG THIS EVENING...MAINLY IMPACTING THE HIGHER TERRAIN 
REGIONS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$