747 
FXUS61 KCAR 250210
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
910 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM QUEBEC LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AFTERWARDS...LOW PRESSURE FROM THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO THE MARITIMES. THIS LOW
WILL CROSS THE GULF OF MAINE ON FRIDAY.&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPDATE 2: IR SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE CWA STILL ABOVE FREEZING AT 9 PM.  

UPDATE: A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS APPROACHING
WESTERN ME THIS EVENING. WSR-88D RADAR DEPICTED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTHERN NY AND SOUTHERN QUEBEC ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT.
THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...THEREFORE NO
CHANGES. 


LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EASTWARD ACROSS QUEBEC OVERNIGHT 
WHILE REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE A SHARP 
UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MAINE. AS SUCH 
EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP TOWARD MIDNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN 
MAINE AND MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS 
WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN DISSIPATE DURING THE 
AFTERNOON AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL 
WILL BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES WILL 
QUICKLY DROP OFF AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LOWS 
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS NORTH TO MID AND UPPER 20S SOUTH. 
COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW. AS A 
RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY OR FALL ACROSS NORTHERN AND 
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS OCCURRING EARLY IN 
THE DAY. DOWNEAST MAINE WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE FRONT 
TOMORROW MORNING AND WILL HAVE MORE OF AN OPPORTUNITY TO WARM UP 
BEFORE THE FRONT MAKES ITS PUSH THROUGH. AS SUCH THERE WILL BE QUITE 
A SPREAD IN HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW...WITH THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY BARELY 
HITTING 20 WHILE DOWNEAST REACHES INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S.&&

.&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLDER...AT LEAST TO NEAR SEASONAL OVRNGT LOW TEMPS XPCTD WED NGT
WITH CLRG SKIES LATE AS CAN HI PRES APCHS FROM THE W. A WEAK
UPPER LVL TROF COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PD OF PTLY TO MSLY CLDY
SKIES AND AN ISOLD FLURRY WED EVE.

AFT THE HI CROSSES THE REGION THU AFTN...CLDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE W THU NGT AS A PROGRESSIVE S/WV TROF FROM THE
GREAT LKS MOVES E TOWARD THE FA. SN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
OVRSPREAD THE FA FROM THE WSW FRI MORN AS A WEAK SECONDARY SFC
LOW FORMS OVR THE GULF OF ME BY MIDDAY FRI. MODELS ARE SPLIT
REGARDING HOW FAR N THE TRANSITION ZONE TO RN WILL GET INTO OUR
FA BY MID TO LATE FRI AFTN...WITH THE 12Z OPNL GFS AND PARTICULARLY
THE CANGEM MODELS BRINGING MILD ATLC AIR FURTHER N THAN THE
CORRESPONDING NAM AND ECMWF MODEL RUNS. FOR THIS UPDATE...WE
DISCOUNTED THE CANGEM SOLUTION ATTM...WHICH WAS MUCH SLOWER AND
MUCH WARMER THAN THE OTHER MODELS...SINCE IT TRACKED ITS MAIN
SFC LOW W OF THE FA FRI NGT. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE BRING THE MAX
NWRD XTNT OF TRANSITIONAL PRECIP TO E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA AND ALL
RN AS FAR N AS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS BY LATE FRI AFTN...WITH N
CNTRL AND FAR NRN PTNS OF THE FA XPCTD TO GET ALL SN FROM THIS
EVENT. CONFIDENCE REGARDING THIS SCENARIO OF PRECIP TRANSITION IS
LOW GIVEN HOW FAR OUT WE STILL ARE FROM THIS EVENT AND THE LARGE
SPREAD OF MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THIS POINT.

QPF WILL ALSO BE A CHALLENGE WITH THIS EVENT...WITH SOME MODELS
SHOWING A MORE UNIFORM DISTRIBUTION OF STORM TOTAL QPF ACROSS THE
FA...AND OTHERS SHOWING A STRONG N TO S GRADIENT WITH A BULLSEYE
NEAR A DEVELOPING COASTAL FRONT ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST. FOR NOW...
ITS PRUDENT TO BLEND BOTH OF THESE SCENARIOS...WHICH RESULTS IN
ABOUT A A QUARTER INCH TOTALS ACROSS THE FAR N TO ARND 0.60 IN ALG
THE COAST. AREAS OF THE FA MAINTAINING ALL SN WITH THIS EVENT
COULD GET ENOUGH FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A WNTR WX ADV...EVEN ACROSS
THE FAR N WHERE HIER SN RATIOS COULD MAKE UP THE DIFFERENCE OF
LESSER QPF.

SNOW N AND MIXED PRECIP ACROSS THE S SHOULD TAPER TO MSLY SN SHWRS
BY LATE FRI NGT WITH MODEST ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOW OTHER S/WVS MOVG FROM THE GREAT LKS SAT
AND SUN...BUT LITTLE EVIDENCE ATTM THAT ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL
BE ORGANIZED TO PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF STEADY SN AND/OR MIXED
PRECIP DURG THESE PDS...SO WE KEPT WITH CHC SHWR POPS ATTM.
EVENTUALLY...ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR COULD WORK INTO OUR FA
FROM CNTRL CAN SUN NGT INTO ERLY NEXT WEEK...ACCOMPANIED BY COLDER
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN MVFR THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL VFR PERIODS. ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS FRONT MAY PRODUCE A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT KCAR/KPQI/KHUL.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM 
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW 25 KT AND GENERALLY 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO OVERNIGHT...WAVES WILL STAY ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH 
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND 
INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT AS COLDER AIR SPILLS 
OVER THE WATERS. WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AND 
TOMORROW AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE OFFSHORE. 


SHORT TO LONG TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE AT MARGINAL OR JUST
BLO SCA CRITERIA DURG THIS PTN OF THE FCST...XCPT PERHAPS SUN NGT
WHEN A MARGINAL GALE IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG LLVL COLD ADVCN OF
ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE WATERS FROM THE NW. WE USED A BLEND OF
NAM12... GFS40 AND GRIDDED GFS MOS FOR WINDS AND A BLEND OF WW3
AND SWAN GFS FOR WV HTS FOR THIS PTN OF THE FCST.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...OKULSKI
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...OKULSKI
MARINE...OKULSKI/VJN