National Weather Service Raw Text Product
Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDEAX Product Timestamp: 2012-01-02 23:26 UTC
Previous in Time Latest Product Next in Time
View All KEAX Products for 02 Jan 2012 View All AFD Products for 02 Jan 2012 View As Image Download As Text
209 FXUS63 KEAX 022326 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 526 PM CST Mon Jan 2 2012 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Brisk northwest winds continue to affect the region this afternoon as a tight pressure gradient remains sandwiched between the departing low across the Great Lakes and the building surface high across the plains. In addition, dewpoints have fallen into the single digits to negative single digits across most of the area this afternoon. This combined with dry and dormant grasses will present a heightened wild fire danger through the remainder of the afternoon. Conditions are expected to improve by this evening as RH values rise due to cooling temperatures and winds subside. The aforementioned surface ridge will settle across the forecast area tonight before shifting east of the area by tomorrow morning. Efficient radiational cooling effects should be in place tonight given clear skies to allow temperatures to dip into the the teens across most locations. Some areas across along the Iowa border may even sneak into the single digits by sunrise. An upper short wave trough will top the western US upper ridge tomorrow and into the northern plains. Ahead of this system, winds will swing around to the south and again become brisk by the late morning and afternoon hours. Given the dry air mass in place, only modest low level moistening is expected as southerly low level flow develops. This will again result in a heightened wild fire danger Tuesday afternoon. Increasing heights and thickness values will also be underway as brief short wave ridging slides overhead on Tuesday allowing afternoon temperatures to climb into the upper 30s across northeast Missouri to the upper 40s across east-central Kansas and west-central Missouri. Despite a weak frontal passage Tuesday night, a general warming trend will continue on Wednesday with temperatures again climbing into the 40s and even lower 50s across eastern Kansas and western Missouri. With little moisture available and the bulk of upper dynamics sliding north of the forecast area, expect to see a dry frontal passage. Deroche Medium range (Thursday-Monday)... Rather quiet weather conditions will continue across the central CONUS for the end of the week and through next weekend. Models are consistent in keeping long wave ridging across the CONUS through Friday, which will help to build an abnormally warm low-level airmass overhead. 850 temperatures for Thursday and Friday will climb well above +10C yielding temperatures in the 50s and perhaps 60s Thursday. A relatively weak cold front will slowly press southward on Friday. Cold air advection aloft lags well behind this front, so another day in the 50s will be likely. For the weekend, colder air will finally reach the areas as an elongated upper trough swings through the Northern Plains and Great Lakes regions on Saturday. Temperatures on Saturday will still find themselves slightly above normal, with near to slightly below normal temperatures on Sunday. Model differences begin to grow by the beginning of next week, but trends continue to support a continued streak of above normal temperatures and little precipitation. Dux && .AVIATION... For the 00Z TAFs...surface ridge will shift eastward across eastern KS and western MO overnight, maintaining clear skies through the period. Northwest winds will decrease over the next few hours, then back to the south by early morning as the ridge axis passes overhead. Hawblitzel && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ WFO EAX