064 
FXUS61 KRLX 270014
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
704 PM EST WED JAN 26 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY THIS EVENING. A SERIES OF 
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH 
SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES EARLY IN THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING EAST TOWARDS ATLANTIC COAST 
CREATING BANDED PRECIPITATION OVER OUR CWA. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN 
OVERNIGHT HAS WORKED TO SQUELCH THE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
LOWLAND COUNTIES WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER 
VALLEY. ANY REMAINING LIQUID PRECIP HAS MADE THE TRANSITION TO SNOW 
WITH HEAVIEST BAND OVER NORTHERN LOWLANDS AND THE MOUNTAINS. 

CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL OVER NORTHERN WV AS THE SYSTEM PIVOTS TO 
OUR SOUTH EAST. ENHANCED CLOUD SHIELD BEING ERODED AWAY ACROSS 
SOUTHEAST OH AS THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THERE FIRST. ALREADY 
BEGINNING TO SEE VSBYS CREEP BACK UP ALONG OHIO RIVER.

GETTING REPORTS BETWEEN 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY 
1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE LOWLANDS. SHOULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 
INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND AN ADDITIONAL TRACE TO 3 INCHES IN THE 
LOWLANDS...HEAVIEST OF THAT WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN LOWLANDS NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS.

WILL BE CHIPPING AWAY WESTERN MOST ADVISORIES WITH AFTERNOON
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOULD BE WANING THURSDAY AS WINDS TURN TO THE 
WEST/SOUTHWEST AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMES TOO SHALLOW TO SUPPORT 
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL.

MODELS THEN INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED 
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO 
FRIDAY.  HAVE BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ALONG AND 
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FRIDAY EVENING...WHICH 
SHOULD ACT TO DECREASE THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION.   
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO 
SPREAD SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.   

USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR THE HIGHS/LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. CAN NOT 
RULE OUT SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT BEST CHANCES ARE 
DEFINITELY NORTH OF THE AREA. BIG DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS 
AND ECMWF FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVING EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. WITH 
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN AND NAEFS MEAN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE 
MEAN...SIDED AGAINST THE GFS. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...USED A BLEND 
OF THE ECMWF AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FOR TUESDAY AND 
WEDNESDAY...LEANED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STORM PULLS AWAY...BUT AVIATION HEADACHES LINGER...AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS.  SOME SPOTTY LIGHT DRIZZLE...FREEZING DRIZZLE...OR 
LIGHT SNOW MAY STILL OCCUR FROM THE CKB-CRW CORRIDOR ON E...BUT 
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BETWEEN BKW AND EKN IN CENTRAL 
WV.  SO HAVE WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AOB 1 THSD FT AND VSBY 2 TO 4 
MILES. HIGHER MOUNTAINS RIDGES COULD STILL BE OBSCURED THROUGH AT 
LEAST 06Z THU.  

HAVE CEILINGS LIFTING INTO THE 1 TO 2 THSD FT RANGE IN THE OHIO 
RIVER VALLEY COUNTIES THIS EVENING...AND VSBY AOA 5 MILES.

THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE LOW 
LEVEL FLOW BACKS AROUND TO SOUTHWEST.  SO TIMING THE BREAKUP OF THE 
CLOUDS AOB 2 THSD FT IS DIFFICULT...BUT TRIED TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC 
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.  VSBY AOA 5 MILES
THROUGHOUT BY 16Z THU.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
     
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF LOW CEILING BREAK UP ON THURSDAY
COULD VARY IN EITHER DIRECTION.    

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 THU
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    M    L    L    L    L    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ032>040-
     046-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ010-011-
     015>020-024>031.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY/TAX
NEAR TERM...TAX
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...KTB