National Weather Service Text Product
AFOS product AFDTFX
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDTFX
Product Timestamp: 2011-01-14 04:29 UTC
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019 FXUS65 KTFX 140429 AFDTFX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 929 PM MST THU JAN 13 2011 .UPDATE... QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE AND IN TURN ALSO CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FLUCTUATE OVERNIGHT. COLD AIRMASS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE WARMER AIR SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND MID- LEVELS ARE KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES LOW SO DID LOWER POPS THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR SNOW SHOWERS...HOWEVER PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALSO DECREASED WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE SO MADE NO FURTHER CHANGES. MLS && .AVIATION... UPDATED 2350Z. MOIST WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WHILE ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO OSCILLATE BACK AND FORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CAUSING LARGE VARIATIONS IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION. AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES AS FOG AND LIGHT SNOW FORM ACROSS THE REGION. MPJ && .HYDROLOGY... ALL HYDROLOGIC PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AS OF THIS AFTERNOON. WATER LEVELS HAVE GONE BELOW FLOOD STAGE ON THE LOGAN AND MADISON RIVERS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND ISSUE UPDATES ON ANY NEW FLOODING REPORTED. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 PM MST THU JAN 13 2011/ TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THINGS ARE QUIETING DOWN A BIT OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS PACIFIC MOISTURE RACES EAST OF THE REGION. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN IS CONTINUING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...BUT HEAVY SNOWFALL IS NO LONGER EXPECTED...THUS THE ONLY LOCATION LEFT TO GENERALLY SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION FOR TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME VERY BRIEF PERIODS...LESS THAN ONE HOUR...OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE...BUT IT LOOKS TOO ISOLATED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY. THE COLD FRONT IS ALONG A LINE FROM DEARBORN TO MONARCH TO LEWISTOWN. SOUTH OF THIS LINE IT IS MILD...NORTH OF THIS LINE...IT IS QUITE COLD. THIS FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...AND REACH A LINE FROM JUST SOUTH OF FORT BENTON TO NORTH OF LEWISTOWN BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND ERODE SLOWLY DURING THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY ON FRIDAY...AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT THE HAVRE AREA WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FORECASTED...AN ADVISORY COULD BECOME NECESSARY...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS. FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AT THIS TIME. BRUSDA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUING TO EXHIBIT MODEST CONSISTENCY WITH EACH OTHER. A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA AS AN UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST DURING THE PERIOD. WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED PERIODS OF SNOW WILL RULE FROM THE START OF THE PERIOD THROUGH MONDAY WITH SUNDAY NIGHT SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW. BY TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THEIR SOLUTION WEDNESDAY FOR THE SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE EUROPEAN MODEL DEVELOPS A SPLIT FLOW AND SENDS MOST OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN DOES THE GFS MODEL. THE RESULT HAS THE GFS PAINTING A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE PICTURE FOR SNOW ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS ON THURSDAY AND BEGINS TO PUSH INTO WESTERN MONTANA RESULTING IN DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AS ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND THEN RETREAT NORTH AT VARIOUS TIMES DURING THE PERIOD. GENERALLY THE NORTHEAST WILL STAY IN THE COLD AIR AND WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 6 34 19 37 / 30 30 30 30 CTB -2 15 4 28 / 30 30 30 30 HLN 31 38 22 35 / 50 50 40 30 BZN 34 40 22 36 / 40 40 40 30 WEY 27 30 18 29 / 90 80 70 50 DLN 30 39 26 37 / 70 40 40 40 HVR -2 10 -5 9 / 60 60 80 30 LWT 18 35 15 35 / 30 40 50 40 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. && $$ SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
271 FXUS65 KTFX 140433 AFDTFX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 929 PM MST THU JAN 13 2011 .UPDATE... QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL MONTANA WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE AND IN TURN ALSO CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FLUCTUATE OVERNIGHT. COLD AIRMASS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE WARMER AIR SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND MID- LEVELS ARE KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES LOW SO DID LOWER POPS THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR SNOW SHOWERS...HOWEVER PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ALSO DECREASED WINDS ALONG THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE SO MADE NO FURTHER CHANGES. MLS && .AVIATION... UPDATED 2350Z. MOIST WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WHILE ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO OSCILLATE BACK AND FORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CAUSING LARGE VARIATIONS IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND PREVAILING WIND DIRECTION. AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES AS FOG AND LIGHT SNOW FORM ACROSS THE REGION. MPJ && .HYDROLOGY... ALL HYDROLOGIC PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED AS OF THIS AFTERNOON. WATER LEVELS HAVE GONE BELOW FLOOD STAGE ON THE LOGAN AND MADISON RIVERS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND ISSUE UPDATES ON ANY NEW FLOODING REPORTED. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 PM MST THU JAN 13 2011/ TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THINGS ARE QUIETING DOWN A BIT OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS PACIFIC MOISTURE RACES EAST OF THE REGION. A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN IS CONTINUING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...BUT HEAVY SNOWFALL IS NO LONGER EXPECTED...THUS THE ONLY LOCATION LEFT TO GENERALLY SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. EXPECT SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION FOR TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME VERY BRIEF PERIODS...LESS THAN ONE HOUR...OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE...BUT IT LOOKS TOO ISOLATED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY. THE COLD FRONT IS ALONG A LINE FROM DEARBORN TO MONARCH TO LEWISTOWN. SOUTH OF THIS LINE IT IS MILD...NORTH OF THIS LINE...IT IS QUITE COLD. THIS FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS MIDNIGHT...AND REACH A LINE FROM JUST SOUTH OF FORT BENTON TO NORTH OF LEWISTOWN BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND ERODE SLOWLY DURING THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY ON FRIDAY...AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT THE HAVRE AREA WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FORECASTED...AN ADVISORY COULD BECOME NECESSARY...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS. FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AT THIS TIME. BRUSDA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUING TO EXHIBIT MODEST CONSISTENCY WITH EACH OTHER. A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA AS AN UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY AMPLIFIES OVER THE WEST COAST DURING THE PERIOD. WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT...SCATTERED PERIODS OF SNOW WILL RULE FROM THE START OF THE PERIOD THROUGH MONDAY WITH SUNDAY NIGHT SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW. BY TUESDAY...A STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THEIR SOLUTION WEDNESDAY FOR THE SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE EUROPEAN MODEL DEVELOPS A SPLIT FLOW AND SENDS MOST OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN DOES THE GFS MODEL. THE RESULT HAS THE GFS PAINTING A GREATER AREAL COVERAGE PICTURE FOR SNOW ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS ON THURSDAY AND BEGINS TO PUSH INTO WESTERN MONTANA RESULTING IN DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN AS ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND THEN RETREAT NORTH AT VARIOUS TIMES DURING THE PERIOD. GENERALLY THE NORTHEAST WILL STAY IN THE COLD AIR AND WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. ELSEWHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 6 34 19 37 / 30 30 30 30 CTB -2 15 4 28 / 30 30 30 30 HLN 31 38 22 35 / 50 50 40 30 BZN 34 40 22 36 / 40 40 40 30 WEY 27 30 18 29 / 90 80 70 50 DLN 30 39 26 37 / 70 40 40 40 HVR -2 10 -5 9 / 60 60 80 30 LWT 18 35 15 35 / 30 40 50 40 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS