AFOS product AFDTFX
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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDTFX
Product Timestamp: 2011-01-11 11:40 UTC

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280 
FXUS65 KTFX 111321
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
440 AM MST TUE JAN 11 2011

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOVING BACK TOWARDS THE
TEENS. WARM WEST- SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH 30 DEGREES
IN SOME SOUTHWEST MONTANA LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE STARTING MIDDLE OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY...HAVE KEPT HIGH
POPS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP CONTINUE TO BE ALONG THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS LIKELY. WITH THESE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AMONGST MOST OF
THE MODEL OUTPUT...A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000
FEET HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT AND LEWIS AND CLARK ZONES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A STRONG PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM THE WEST ALLOWING 12 HOUR SNOWFALL
TOTALS THURSDAY TO REACH OVER A FOOT IN THESE LOCATIONS. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THURSDAY WITH MOST OF THE PLAINS LIKELY SEEING
ANYWHERE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RATHER COMPLEX AND UNSETTLED 
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FLOW ALOFT 
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE 
CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW. SHORT 
WAVE ENERGY MOVING WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE 
OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTY WARNING 
AREA. WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLY 
AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. 
COLDER AIR MOVES BACK OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THOUGH THE 
MODELS EXHIBIT SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE 
COLDER AIR WILL SLIDE. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST 
COAST TO START NEXT WEEK...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA WILL 
BRING A LITTLE DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON 
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES ON FRIDAY BEFORE DROPPING BELOW 
SEASONAL AVERAGES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE 
CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. 
PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KHVR THROUGH EARLY MORNING. VFR 
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN AREAS WHERE FOG HAS FORMED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOODING HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE MADISON RIVER NEAR ENNIS IN MADISON 
COUNTY AND HAS AFFECTED PARTS OF HIGHWAY 287. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED 
TO REMAIN ABOVE BANK-FULL AND THUS THE FLOOD WARNING WILL CONTINUE 
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL 
OFFICIALS WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   9   2  25  16 /   0   0  20  20 
CTB   7  -4  18   9 /   0  10  30  30 
HLN   9   5  28  19 /   0  10  50  40 
BZN   9   4  27  15 /   0  10  40  40 
WEY  11  -6  20  13 /   0  10  60  60 
DLN  10   6  27  20 /   0  10  50  50 
HVR  -2 -15  10  -1 /   0   0  20  50 
LWT   8  -2  16  14 /   0   0  20  40 

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY 
NIGHT FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN 
LEWIS AND CLARK...NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...SOUTHERN ROCKY 
MOUNTAIN FRONT.

FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MADISON RIVER NEAR ENNIS IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUSTAFSON 
LONG TERM...EMANUEL 
AVIATION...EMANUEL 

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
992 
FXUS65 KTFX 111141
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
440 AM MST TUE JAN 11 2011

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WARMER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOVING BACK TOWARDS THE
TEENS. WARM WEST- SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO APPROACH 30 DEGREES
IN SOME SOUTHWEST MONTANA LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE STARTING MIDDLE OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY...HAVE KEPT HIGH
POPS ALONG THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP CONTINUE TO BE ALONG THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
SNOW IS LIKELY. WITH THESE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AMONGST MOST OF
THE MODEL OUTPUT...A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000
FEET HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN FRONT AND LEWIS AND CLARK ZONES. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A STRONG PUSH OF MOISTURE FROM THE WEST ALLOWING 12 HOUR SNOWFALL
TOTALS THURSDAY TO REACH OVER A FOOT IN THESE LOCATIONS. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THURSDAY WITH MOST OF THE PLAINS LIKELY SEEING
ANYWHERE FROM 4 TO 8 INCHES DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A RATHER COMPLEX AND UNSETTLED 
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FLOW ALOFT 
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWEST WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE 
CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW. SHORT 
WAVE ENERGY MOVING WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE 
OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTY WARNING 
AREA. WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BRING RAIN AND POSSIBLY 
AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA. 
COLDER AIR MOVES BACK OVER THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THOUGH THE 
MODELS EXHIBIT SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE 
COLDER AIR WILL SLIDE. AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST 
COAST TO START NEXT WEEK...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA WILL 
BRING A LITTLE DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON 
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES ON FRIDAY BEFORE DROPPING BELOW 
SEASONAL AVERAGES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1140Z.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL PROVIDE DRY AND STABLE 
CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. 
PATCHY FREEZING FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KHVR THROUGH EARLY MORNING. VFR 
CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH ISOLATED MVFR IN AREAS WHERE FOG HAS FORMED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
FLOODING HAS OCCURRED ALONG THE MADISON RIVER NEAR ENNIS IN MADISON 
COUNTY AND HAS AFFECTED PARTS OF HIGHWAY 287. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED 
TO REMAIN ABOVE BANK-FULL AND THUS THE FLOOD WARNING WILL CONTINUE 
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND LOCAL 
OFFICIALS WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF   9   2  25  16 /   0   0  20  20 
CTB   7  -4  18   9 /   0  10  30  30 
HLN   9   5  28  19 /   0  10  50  40 
BZN   9   4  27  15 /   0  10  40  40 
WEY  11  -6  20  13 /   0  10  60  60 
DLN  10   6  27  20 /   0  10  50  50 
HVR  -2 -15  10  -1 /   0   0  20  50 
LWT   8  -2  16  14 /   0   0  20  40 

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY 
NIGHT FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN 
LEWIS AND CLARK...NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT...SOUTHERN ROCKY 
MOUNTAIN FRONT.

FLOOD WARNING FOR THE MADISON RIVER NEAR ENNIS IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUSTAFSON 
LONG TERM...EMANUEL 
AVIATION...EMANUEL 

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS