000
FXUS66 KLOX 052303 RRA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
145 PM PST SUN DEC 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...

RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS 
IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA AND VENTURA 
COUNTIES. SOUTHERLY GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 
MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET. MONDAY 
WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AND WARM...LASTING THROUGH THE WEEK. 

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...COMMS PROBLEMS AGAIN DELAYING OR IN SOME 
CASES PREVENTING RECEIPT OF A LOT OF DATA, INCLUDING SATELLITE 
IMAGERY, THE 18Z AND SOME OF THE 12Z MODELS AND 12Z ECMWF, INTO 
LOCAL COMPUTER SYSTEMS SO THE FORECAST IS BASED MOSTLY ON 12Z MODEL 
RUNS AND SAT IMAGERY FROM INTERNET. 

THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE IS STARTING TO MOVE NORTHEAST IN LINE WITH 
EARLIER PROJECTIONS. SOME JET DIVERGENCE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE 
TROF GENERATED SOME THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE OF PT CONCEPTION AND 
THERE STILL MAY BE AN ISOLATED STORM NEAR THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH 
THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. A WELL 
DEFINED COLD FRONT HAS DEVELOPED AND IS MARCHING EASTWARD AT A 
PRETTY GOOD CLIP. A LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING ARRIVAL LOOKS GOOD 
GOING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS WERE STILL SHOWING 
A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN 900 AND 700 MB THIS EVENING AND THIS 
SHOULD PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFTING NEEDED TO GENERATE SOME LOCALLY 
HEAVY RAIN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS RAMPED PRECIP BACK UP 
WITH THE 12Z RUNS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED 
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT SO I WENT AHEAD AN INCREASED PRECIP TOTALS 
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE SPEED 
OF THE SYSTEM. DURATION OF RAIN WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE 3-5 HOURS, BUT 
ASSUMING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP DURING THAT TIME RAINFALL 
AMOUNTS SHOULD STILL BE DECENT. AROUND A HALF INCH AT COAST/VALLEYS, 
1-2 IN MTNS. PERHAPS AN ISOLATED 2+ IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE PARTS OF 
VENTURA/SBA COUNTIES. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT 
WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LEFT BY MORNING, MAINLY IN THE MTNS. 

WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND THOSE LOOK GOOD. 
DON'T THINK WE'LL GET TO THE BURN AREA RAINFALL RATE THRESHOLDS FOR 
MUD AND DEBRIS FLOW WARNINGS BUT PEOPLE IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN 
VIGILANT TONIGHT IN THE OFF CHANCE THAT THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN 
SUDDENLY AND PRECIP LINGERS LONGER THAN EXPECTED. SNOW NOT EXPECTED 
TO BE A MAJOR PLAYER EITHER AS IT'S TOO WARM BELOW 7000 FEET AND 
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WON'T HELP. HOWEVER, IT'S STILL VERY DRY AHEAD 
OF THE COLD FRONT AND EVEN THOUGH AIR TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING WE 
COULD STILL SEE SNOW FALLING WELL BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL UNTIL THE 
FRONT ARRIVES THIS EVENING. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION THOUGH AND 
WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT PROBABLY 2-4 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET. PERHAPS 
A LITTLE MORE ON THE HIGHER RESORT SLOPES.

A DRYING AND WARMING TREND EXPECTED MON-WED. MODELS CONTINUE TO 
ADVERTISE A 2-4 MB OFFSHORE GRADIENT TUE MORNING, THEN SOMEWHAT 
WEAKER ON WED. THE COMBINATION OF THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND 
STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BY 
MID WEEK. ANY CHANCES FOR A MID WEEK SYSTEM NORTH OF PT CONCEPTIION 
APPEAR TO HAVE VANISHED.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN 
FACT, BY SAT AND SUN HIGHS SHOULD BE INTO THE 80S FOR THE VALLEYS 
AND EVEN SOME COASTAL ZONES AS WELL. WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW 
MAY BRING SOME BREEZES WITH IT BUT NOT A LOT OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR 
ANYTHING TOO STRONG. OVERALL, LOOKS LIKE A VERY NICE WEEKEND IN 
STORE FOR SO CAL IF YOU LIKE WARM TEMPS AND CLEAR SKIES. 

&&

.AVIATION...05/1900Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INCREASING LATE THIS MORNING AND AS A TROUGH 
OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND 
TONIGHT...RAIN WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF POINT 
CONCEPTION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SPOTTED IN THE COASTAL 
WATERS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND MAY AFFECT THE CENTRAL COAST 
TODAY. FAIR CONFIDENCE IN SOME RAIN SPREADING SOUTH OF POINT 
CONCEPTION...BUT ONLY SPRINKLES TODAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN 
TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR MONDAY.

KLAX AND KBUR...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN SPRINKLES TODAY AND LIGHT TO 
MODERATE RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...WOFFORD
AVIATION...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

999
FXUS66 KLOX 052147
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
145 PM PST SUN DEC 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...

RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS 
IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA AND VENTURA 
COUNTIES. SOUTHERLY GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 
MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET. MONDAY 
WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AND WARM...LASTING THROUGH THE WEEK. 

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...COMMS PROBLEMS AGAIN DELAYING OR IN SOME 
CASES PREVENTING RECEIPT OF A LOT OF DATA, INCLUDING SATELLITE 
IMAGERY, THE 18Z AND SOME OF THE 12Z MODELS AND 12Z ECMWF, INTO 
LOCAL COMPUTER SYSTEMS SO THE FORECAST IS BASED MOSTLY ON 12Z MODEL 
RUNS AND SAT IMAGERY FROM INTERNET. 

THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE IS STARTING TO MOVE NORTHEAST IN LINE WITH 
EARLIER PROJECTIONS. SOME JET DIVERGENCE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE 
TROF GENERATED SOME THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE OF PT CONCEPTION AND 
THERE STILL MAY BE AN ISOLATED STORM NEAR THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH 
THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. A WELL 
DEFINED COLD FRONT HAS DEVELOPED AND IS MARCHING EASTWARD AT A 
PRETTY GOOD CLIP. A LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING ARRIVAL LOOKS GOOD 
GOING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS WERE STILL SHOWING 
A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN 900 AND 700 MB THIS EVENING AND THIS 
SHOULD PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFTING NEEDED TO GENERATE SOME LOCALLY 
HEAVY RAIN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS RAMPED PRECIP BACK UP 
WITH THE 12Z RUNS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED 
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT SO I WENT AHEAD AN INCREASED PRECIP TOTALS 
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE SPEED 
OF THE SYSTEM. DURATION OF RAIN WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE 3-5 HOURS, BUT 
ASSUMING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP DURING THAT TIME RAINFALL 
AMOUNTS SHOULD STILL BE DECENT. AROUND A HALF INCH AT COAST/VALLEYS, 
1-2 IN MTNS. PERHAPS AN ISOLATED 2+ IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE PARTS OF 
VENTURA/SBA COUNTIES. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT 
WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LEFT BY MORNING, MAINLY IN THE MTNS. 

WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND THOSE LOOK GOOD. 
DON'T THINK WE'LL GET TO THE BURN AREA RAINFALL RATE THRESHOLDS FOR 
MUD AND DEBRIS FLOW WARNINGS BUT PEOPLE IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN 
VIGILANT TONIGHT IN THE OFF CHANCE THAT THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN 
SUDDENLY AND PRECIP LINGERS LONGER THAN EXPECTED. SNOW NOT EXPECTED 
TO BE A MAJOR PLAYER EITHER AS IT'S TOO WARM BELOW 7000 FEET AND 
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WON'T HELP. HOWEVER, IT'S STILL VERY DRY AHEAD 
OF THE COLD FRONT AND EVEN THOUGH AIR TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING WE 
COULD STILL SEE SNOW FALLING WELL BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL UNTIL THE 
FRONT ARRIVES THIS EVENING. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION THOUGH AND 
WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT PROBABLY 2-4 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET. PERHAPS 
A LITTLE MORE ON THE HIGHER RESORT SLOPES.

A DRYING AND WARMING TREND EXPECTED MON-WED. MODELS CONTINUE TO 
ADVERTISE A 2-4 MB OFFSHORE GRADIENT TUE MORNING, THEN SOMEWHAT 
WEAKER ON WED. THE COMBINATION OF THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND 
STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BY 
MID WEEK. ANY CHANCES FOR A MID WEEK SYSTEM NORTH OF PT CONCEPTIION 
APPEAR TO HAVE VANISHED.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN 
FACT, BY SAT AND SUN HIGHS SHOULD BE INTO THE 80S FOR THE VALLEYS 
AND EVEN SOME COASTAL ZONES AS WELL. WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW 
MAY BRING SOME BREEZES WITH IT BUT NOT A LOT OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR 
ANYTHING TOO STRONG. OVERALL, LOOKS LIKE A VERY NICE WEEKEND IN 
STORE FOR SO CAL IF YOU LIKE WARM TEMPS AND CLEAR SKIES. 

&&

.AVIATION...05/1900Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INCREASING LATE THIS MORNING AND AS A TROUGH 
OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND 
TONIGHT...RAIN WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF POINT 
CONCEPTION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SPOTTED IN THE COASTAL 
WATERS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND MAY AFFECT THE CENTRAL COAST 
TODAY. FAIR CONFIDENCE IN SOME RAIN SPREADING SOUTH OF POINT 
CONCEPTION...BUT ONLY SPRINKLES TODAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN 
TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR MONDAY.

KLAX AND KBUR...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN SPRINKLES TODAY AND LIGHT TO 
MODERATE RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...WOFFORD
AVIATION...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

000
FXUS66 KLOX 052147
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
145 PM PST SUN DEC 5 2010

.SYNOPSIS...

RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS 
IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA AND VENTURA 
COUNTIES. SOUTHERLY GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 
MOUNTAINS...ALONG WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ABOVE 7000 FEET. MONDAY 
WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR AND WARM...LASTING THROUGH THE WEEK. 

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...COMMS PROBLEMS AGAIN DELAYING OR IN SOME 
CASES PREVENTING RECEIPT OF A LOT OF DATA, INCLUDING SATELLITE 
IMAGERY, THE 18Z AND SOME OF THE 12Z MODELS AND 12Z ECMWF, INTO 
LOCAL COMPUTER SYSTEMS SO THE FORECAST IS BASED MOSTLY ON 12Z MODEL 
RUNS AND SAT IMAGERY FROM INTERNET. 

THE UPPER LOW OFFSHORE IS STARTING TO MOVE NORTHEAST IN LINE WITH 
EARLIER PROJECTIONS. SOME JET DIVERGENCE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE 
TROF GENERATED SOME THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE OF PT CONCEPTION AND 
THERE STILL MAY BE AN ISOLATED STORM NEAR THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH 
THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK. A WELL 
DEFINED COLD FRONT HAS DEVELOPED AND IS MARCHING EASTWARD AT A 
PRETTY GOOD CLIP. A LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING ARRIVAL LOOKS GOOD 
GOING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS WERE STILL SHOWING 
A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN 900 AND 700 MB THIS EVENING AND THIS 
SHOULD PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFTING NEEDED TO GENERATE SOME LOCALLY 
HEAVY RAIN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODELS RAMPED PRECIP BACK UP 
WITH THE 12Z RUNS WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED 
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT SO I WENT AHEAD AN INCREASED PRECIP TOTALS 
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE SPEED 
OF THE SYSTEM. DURATION OF RAIN WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE 3-5 HOURS, BUT 
ASSUMING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP DURING THAT TIME RAINFALL 
AMOUNTS SHOULD STILL BE DECENT. AROUND A HALF INCH AT COAST/VALLEYS, 
1-2 IN MTNS. PERHAPS AN ISOLATED 2+ IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE PARTS OF 
VENTURA/SBA COUNTIES. PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT 
WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS LEFT BY MORNING, MAINLY IN THE MTNS. 

WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND THOSE LOOK GOOD. 
DON'T THINK WE'LL GET TO THE BURN AREA RAINFALL RATE THRESHOLDS FOR 
MUD AND DEBRIS FLOW WARNINGS BUT PEOPLE IN THOSE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN 
VIGILANT TONIGHT IN THE OFF CHANCE THAT THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN 
SUDDENLY AND PRECIP LINGERS LONGER THAN EXPECTED. SNOW NOT EXPECTED 
TO BE A MAJOR PLAYER EITHER AS IT'S TOO WARM BELOW 7000 FEET AND 
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WON'T HELP. HOWEVER, IT'S STILL VERY DRY AHEAD 
OF THE COLD FRONT AND EVEN THOUGH AIR TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING WE 
COULD STILL SEE SNOW FALLING WELL BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL UNTIL THE 
FRONT ARRIVES THIS EVENING. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION THOUGH AND 
WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT PROBABLY 2-4 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET. PERHAPS 
A LITTLE MORE ON THE HIGHER RESORT SLOPES.

A DRYING AND WARMING TREND EXPECTED MON-WED. MODELS CONTINUE TO 
ADVERTISE A 2-4 MB OFFSHORE GRADIENT TUE MORNING, THEN SOMEWHAT 
WEAKER ON WED. THE COMBINATION OF THE OFFSHORE FLOW AND 
STRENGTHENING RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BY 
MID WEEK. ANY CHANCES FOR A MID WEEK SYSTEM NORTH OF PT CONCEPTIION 
APPEAR TO HAVE VANISHED.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...MORE OF THE SAME THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN 
FACT, BY SAT AND SUN HIGHS SHOULD BE INTO THE 80S FOR THE VALLEYS 
AND EVEN SOME COASTAL ZONES AS WELL. WEAK TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW 
MAY BRING SOME BREEZES WITH IT BUT NOT A LOT OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR 
ANYTHING TOO STRONG. OVERALL, LOOKS LIKE A VERY NICE WEEKEND IN 
STORE FOR SO CAL IF YOU LIKE WARM TEMPS AND CLEAR SKIES. 

&&

.AVIATION...05/1900Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INCREASING LATE THIS MORNING AND AS A TROUGH 
OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND 
TONIGHT...RAIN WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF POINT 
CONCEPTION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SPOTTED IN THE COASTAL 
WATERS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND MAY AFFECT THE CENTRAL COAST 
TODAY. FAIR CONFIDENCE IN SOME RAIN SPREADING SOUTH OF POINT 
CONCEPTION...BUT ONLY SPRINKLES TODAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN 
TONIGHT. SKIES WILL CLEAR MONDAY.

KLAX AND KBUR...FAIR CONFIDENCE IN SPRINKLES TODAY AND LIGHT TO 
MODERATE RAIN OR RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT. VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...WOFFORD
AVIATION...SWEET
SYNOPSIS...BARTLING

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES