686 
FXUS66 KLOX 020524 AAA
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1025 PM PDT WED SEP 1 2010

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN ALOFT OVER THE
REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. PATCHY NIGHT THROUGH MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
REMAIN CONFINED TO NEAR THE BEACHES INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER CALIFORNIA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...COOLING THE AIR MASS THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.UPDATE...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUING TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT HAS SQUASHED THE
MARINE LAYER TO ABOUT 800 FEET FROM KLAX AMDAR SOUNDINGS. 950 MB
TEMPERATURES INITIALIZED WELL IN THE LATEST NAM-WRF
SOLUTIONS...AND LATEST NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
FURTHER WARMING ON THURSDAY. THE INCREASING 950 MB TEMPERATURES
WILL KEEP A STRONG NEAR SURFACE MARINE INVERSION IN PLACE AND
CONTINUE PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST NAM-WRF SOLUTIONS INDICATE 950 MB
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT ON THURSDAY...BUT THE THERMAL TROUGH
OFFSHORE SHIFTING WEST OFFSHORE SHOULD PERMIT FRIDAY TO REMAIN
JUST AS WARM AS THURSDAY. WITH RIDGE ANCHORED IN PLACE EXPECT A
SHALLOW MARINE INVERSION IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG THE BEACHES. PACKAGE TEMPERATURES
SEEM AGREEABLE ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE WARM AIR MASS IN PLACE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...THE EVER PRESENT WEST COAST TROF WILL MAKE
A RAPID RETURN SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY AN EVEN STRONGER TROF TUE/WED.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE USUAL IMPACTS, DEEPER MARINE LYR, COOLER
TEMPS, ETC. THROUGH MID WEEK WITH HIGHS AGAIN DIPPING BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AND CERTAINLY BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...02/0525Z.
EXPECT WDSPRD IFR TO LIFR CONDS AT ALL COASTAL SITES FROM SRN SBA 
COUNTY THROUGH L.A. COUNTY...WITH PATCHY IFR/LIFE CONDS ON THE 
CENTRAL COAST. ONCE AGAIN CLEARING MAY BE SLOW NEAR THE IMDT CST AND 
STRATUS SHOULD RETURN EARLY THU EVENING.

KLAX...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 
PERCENT CHANCE THAT VSBYS WILL NOT DROP BELOW 2SM IN BR...BUT STILL 
EXPECT CIGS TO BE AOB 005 THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z OR 17Z THU MORNING. 
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH 20Z.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CAVU TAF.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX). 

&&

$$

PUBLIC...HALL/WOFFORD
AVIATION...DB
SYNOPSIS...HALL

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