456 
FXUS63 KMPX 151100 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
600 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010

.UPDATED FOR AVIATION 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

.DISCUSSION...

GENERAL RIDGING SHOULD BE IN CONTROL INTO SUNDAY OVER THE AREA
WITH ROCKIES UPPER LOW ON A GENERAL TRACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. PRECIP CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW SIDE FOR MOST OF THE AREA
WITH ANY SIG MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. THERE
IS STILL A HINT OF AN INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN MN ON MONDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN ON THE DRY SIDE
FOR US THE THE LAST FEW RUNS WITH MOST OF OUR AREA CUT OFF FROM
THE FLOW. A WEAK BOUNDARY MAY DROP INTO N MN WITH BETTER
INSTABILITY THERE. THE SREF AND GFS ENSEMBLE POPS HAVE TRENDED
DOWN FOR SOUTHERN MN AS WELL. 

OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL BE MILD TODAY WITH GOOD INSOLATION BUT
WEAKER MIXING THAN YESTERDAY. THE PATH OF THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL FAVOR
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
LONGER RANGE STILL LOOK DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REESTABLISHING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS WILL WELL INTO THE 70S WITH THE
HIGHER READINGS FAVORED OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 
SOME SHALLOW FOG ALONG LOW LYING AREAS.  MAY AFFECT KSTC/KEAU/KRNH 
YET THIS MORNING WITH SOME LOWER VSBYS.  SHOULD BE SHALLOW THOUGH.  
WILL MENTION FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH 13Z THOSE AREAS.  
OTHERWISE...LOOKING LIKE MAINLY CIRRUS AROUND THE AREA TODAY.  COULD 
SEE FEW 4-5K FT CUMULUS...MAINLY SOUTHERN AREAS.  OTHERWISE 
SHOULD SEE INCREASING MID CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT FROM THE WEST.  
LIGHT/VRBL WIND THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH DURING 
THE DAY AS SFC HIGH MOVES SLOWLY EAST OVER WISCONSIN.  SPEEDS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS.  

KMSP...VFR THRUT PERIOD,  SOME SHALLOW FOG AROUND RIVER VALLEY BUT 
SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF KMSP AREA.  COULD SEE FEW 4-5K FT CUMULUS 
DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS.  SFC WINDS 
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE MORNING. 

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

JPR/DWE