432 
FNUS74 KLIX 082105
FWSLIX

SPOT FORECAST FOR DEEPWATER HORIZON...NWS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
405 PM CDT SAT MAY 8 2010

IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OVER THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AS 
A WEAK 1021MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE OFFSHORE COASTAL
WATERS WEST OF THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE RIVER.  THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT...ALLOWING
A MUCH STRONGER 1030MB TO SETTLE IN.

.WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SUMMARY...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 1AM TO 10AM SUNDAY FOR ALL OF THE 
INNER AND OUTER COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE 
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.WIND PROFILE...
    SFC... NW 11KT
  250FT... NW 13KT
  500FT... NW 15KT
   1KFT...NNW 20KT
   2KFT... NW 21KT
   3KFT... NW 17KT
   4KFT...WNW 18KT
   5KFT...WNW 22KT
MAX WIND...274/52KT 40.1KFT.
MOIST LAPSE RATE TO 11500 FT...DRY LAPSE RATE AFTER THAT.

.NEARBY GULF ASOS/AWOS OBSERVATIONS...
...KBVE - BOOTHVILLE-VENICE LA ASOS
...KGAO - GALLIANO LA AWOS
...KHSA - STENNIS INTL AP - BAY ST LOUIS MS
...KIPN - INDEPENDENCE 28.1N 87.9W
...KMYT - INNOVATOR 28.2N 89.6W
...KSPR - SHIP SHOAL 28.6N 91.2W
...KMDJ - MS CANYON 28.7N 89.8W

METAR KBVE 082051Z AUTO 02003KT 7SM SCT046 29/23 A3008 RMK AO2 SLP187
     T02940228 57006 TSNO
METAR KGAO 082045Z AUTO 34011G15KT 10SM SCT037 28/21 A3009 RMK AO2
METAR KHSA 081853Z 01010G15KT 7SM OVC028 26/16 A3011
METAR KIPN 082035Z AUTO 29008KT 10SM CLR 27/23 A3008 RMK A01
METAR KMYT 082035Z AUTO VRB03KT 8SM CLR 28/23 A3009 RMK A01
METAR KSPR 082040Z AUTO 32007KT 8SM 27/24 A3009 RMK A01
METAR KMDJ 082035Z AUTO 28008KT 220V290 8SM CLR 27/24 A3010 RMK A01

SYNTHETIC TAFS /UNOFFICIAL/ FOR PLANNING PURPOSES ONLY

KHUM 082051Z 0821/0918 05009KT P6SM SCT050
     FM090200 04008KT P6SM SKC
     FM091400 05009KT P6SM FEW050

TAF AMD
KBVE 082051Z 0821/0918 01012G19KT P6SM SCT040
     FM090200 03008KT P6SM SKC
     FM091400 07013KT P6SM FEW050

TAF AMD
KHSA 082051Z 0821/0918 01010KT P6SM OVC025
     FM082200 02007KT P6SM SCT050
     FM090200 01005KT P6SM SKC
     FM091400 07012KT P6SM SKC

AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY...VFR SCT020-025. MDT NW WND.
AREAL OUTLOOK FOR SUNDAY...VFR SCT025. MDT NE WND. 
AREAL OUTLOOK FOR MONDAY...MVFR SCT-BKN020-025. MDT E WND.
AREAL OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...VFR SCT025-030. MDT SE WND.

.RADAR...
NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS NOTED OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
 
.TIDAL INFORMATION...
PSTL1 0.50 FT (-00.20 FT OFF FORECAST TRACE; STEADY)
               PROJECTED LOW TIDE 0.41 FT AT 6PM CDT 
WYCM6 0.06 FT (-00.30 FT OFF FORECAST TRACK; FALLING)
               
RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...SAT MAY 8TH
    LO    6 30 AM    STAGE    0.6    HI    2 24 PM    STAGE    0.9
    LO   10 24 PM    STAGE    0.6
RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE...SUN MAY 9TH
    HI   12 56 PM    STAGE    1.2    LO   10 48 PM    STAGE    0.2

BUOY 42040 WATER TEMP: 78F

.TODAY...
TIME (CDT)      4PM 5PM 
SKY (%).........40  40  
WEATHER COV.....        
WEATHER TYPE....        
TEMP............77  77  
RH..............75  76  
20 FT WIND DIR..N   N   
20 FT WIND SPD..9   9   
20 FT WIND GUST.20  20  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.7 0.7 
MIX HGT (KM)....0.2 0.2 
TRANSP WIND DIR.N   N   
TRANSP WIND SPD.9   9   
TRANS SPD (M/S).4   4   
CHC OF PCPN (%).10  10  
CEILINGS........S30....  
SEAS............2   2   
SEA STATE.......CHOPPY  

.TONIGHT...
TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM   
SKY (%).........40     28     37     37     42     43     
WEATHER COV.....                                          
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   
TEMP............76     75     73     72     70     69     
RH..............76     75     77     73     73     74     
20 FT WIND......N 9    N 10   N 10   N 12   NE 14  NE 14  
20 FT WIND GUST.20     20     20     25     25     30     
MIX HGT (FT)....700    1800   2200   2200   3000   2700   
MIX HGT (M).....210    550    670    670    910    820    
TRANSPORT WIND..N 9    N 9    N 13   N 13   NE 15  NE 20  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10     0      0      0      0      0      
SEAS............2      4      4      4      5      5      
SEA STATE.......ROUGH................VERY ROUGH.........  

.SUNDAY...
TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM   
SKY (%).........43     42     36     36     38     17     
WEATHER COV.....                                          
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   
TEMP............68     70     74     76     77     77     
RH..............74     66     55     50     48     48     
20 FT WIND......NE 14  NE 14  NE 14  E 14   E 12   E 11   
20 FT WIND GUST.25     25     30     25     25     25     
MIX HGT (FT)....2700   2700   2600   2600   2400   2400   
MIX HGT (M).....820    820    790    790    730    730    
TRANSPORT WIND..NE 20  NE 20  NE 20  NE 20  E 17   E 15   
CHC OF PCPN (%).0      10     10     10     10     10     
SEAS............5      6      6      6      5      5      
SEA STATE.......VERY ROUGH....ROUGH....................  

$$
FORECASTER...NWS NEW ORLEANS
REQUESTED BY...TIM ERICKSON
TYPE OF REQUEST...HAZMAT
.TAG 20100508.DEEPW.12/LIX