171 
FXUS63 KMPX 192337
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
637 PM CDT FRI MAR 19 2010

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE COMING WEEK REVOLVES AROUND
TEMPERATURES AND WHAT ARE DWINDLING HOPES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEK.

CURRENTLY...WV IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW APPROACHING NW
MN. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM THE
ONTARIO/MANITOBA BORDER SW INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION. CURRENTLY
SEEING A STRONG SYSTEM SPINNING UP ON THE SW EDGE OF THIS TROUGH
OVER THE 4 CORNERS WHICH WILL BE CLOSING OFF TOMORROW AS IT
SLOWLY TRUDGES EAST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO CREATE AN IMPRESSIVE MARCH
WINTER STORM FROM CENTRAL OK INTO NRN IL...BUT WE WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY AS SFC RIDGING STAYS IN CONTROL.
HAVE NOT SEEN TEMPS WARM VERY MUCH TODAY IN CLOUD COVER...SO WILL
HAVE LOW STARTING POINT FOR LOWS TONIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST STILL
LOOKED REASONABLE SO ONLY TWEAKED LOWS A COUPLE OF DEGREES
DOWN...ESPECIALLY IN THE NW WHERE TEMPS HAVE YET TO LEAVE THE 20S.
COOL DOWN LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED...WITH COLDEST H85 TEMPS EXPECTED
SATURDAY MORNING. SFC RIDGE WILL BE OVHD SATURDAY...SO EXPECTING
NEUTRAL TEMPERATURE ADVECTION WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SFC HIGH SLIPS SOUTH OF THE
AREA...SETTING REGION UP INTO RETURN FLOW. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH
ONE MORE NEAR NORMAL NIGHT FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT DESPITE WARM
ADVECTION STARTING THANKS TO CLEAR SKIES AND COOLER HIGH TEMPS
FROM SATURDAY. H85 TEMPS BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AROUND
+8C...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE HIGHS FOR MONDAY WITH ENTIRE
AREA NOW INTO THE 50S. FROM TUESDAY AND BEYOND...TEMPERATURE
FORECAST GETS A BIT HAIRY THANKS TO ANOTHER COLD FROM THAT IS
PROGGED TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION. 19.12 GFS/GEM BRING THIS
THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY. IF THE
ECMWF IS CORRECT...WOULD SEE ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS AROUND 10 DEG
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY...BEFORE TEMPS MAKE A RUN BACK TO NORMAL BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.

FOR PRECIP...DRY SFC RIDGE PUSHING DOWN INTO AREA CURRENTLY IS
SUFFICIENTLY PREVENTING PRECIP FROM GETTING UP INTO THE CWA...ALL
GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING ANY QPF SOUTH OF THE AREA...SO
HAVE NO CHANCES FOR PRECIP TONIGHT. WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING BACK
IN FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AREA WILL BE DRY...BUT ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE ROCKIES IN THIS TIME FRAME.
ENERGY FROM THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY...BUT
GEM/GFS/ECMWF SEEM TO SETTLING IN ON A SPLIT FLOW SOLUTION FOR
THIS SYSTEM...WITH A WEAK NRN STREAM WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE INTL
BORDER IN THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...WHILE THE SRN END
OF THIS TROUGH SLOWS DOWN AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...SIMILAR TO
CURRENT SYSTEM. LIKE THE CURRENT SYSTEM...AREA GETS STUCK BTWN THE
TWO WAVES AN LOOKS TO REMAIN HIGH AND DRY. HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS GOING FOR THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...BUT NOT
LOOKING TO GOOD TO SEE ANYTHING ATTM. AFTER THIS...SRN WAVE THAT
GETS HUNG UP OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY IS PROGGED BY THE
ECMWF/GFS TO DRIFT SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG
SHORTWAVE ROUNDS POLAR VORTEX OVER HUDSON BAY. UNFORTUNATELY...AREA
LOOKS TO BE TO FAR FROM EITHER ONE OF THESE WAVES...SO HAVE STARTED
FRIDAY OFF DRY UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE APPARENT ONE OF THESE SYSTEMS
WILL GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE REGION TO ACTUAL WARRANT THE MENTION
OF POPS.

OF INTERESTING NOTE...LOOKING BACK AT SNOWFALL DATA FOR THE TWIN
CITIES FROM THE STATE CLIMATOLOGIST...EVERY MARCH SINCE 1884 HAS
HAD MEASURABLE SNOWFALL /LOWEST WAS 0.1 INCHES IN 1981/ AND WITH
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY /THE 26TH/ LOOKING SNOW FREE...WE MAY BE ON OUR
WAY TO A UNIQUE CLIMATOLOGICAL EVENT HERE IN THE TWIN CITIES OF NO
SNOW FOR THE MONTH OF MARCH. THE CITIES AVERAGE NEARLY 10 INCHES
FOR THE MONTH. WILL GIVE US SOMETHING INTERESTING TO KEEP AN EYE
ON AS WE NEAR THE END MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE 
WEEKEND. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE 
TAF SITES TONIGHT.  COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE 
BETWEEN 25-35 HUNDRED FEET LAYER...WILL PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED TO 
BROKEN CLOUDS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.  CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT 
OVER ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BEFORE SUNSET TOMORROW NIGHT.  NORTHWEST 
WINDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY MIDNIGHT.  WEST-NORTHWEST 
WINDS 6 TO 10 KNOTS ON SATURDAY. 

KMSP...CEILING BETWEEN 35-40 HUNDRED FEET EARLY THIS EVENING... 
BECOMING SCATTERED OR CLEAR ABOVE 25 HUNDRED FEET BY MIDNIGHT.  
NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO UNDER 10 MPH. 
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ROUGHLY AROUND 30 HUNDRED FEET AGL ON 
SATURDAY...THEN CLEARING BEFORE SUNSET.  WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 
10 KNOTS. 

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

MPG/JM