National Weather Service Raw Text Product

659 
FXUS65 KMSO 152110
AFDMSO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
210 PM MST MON FEB 15 2010

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WITH PLENTIFUL SURFACE MOISTURE...EXPECT
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD MORNING. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND SPREAD LIGHT SNOW AND LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE
INTO SOUTHERN B.C. AND ALBERTA TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL THEN DROP
BACK OVER WESTERN MONTANA WEDNESDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE WEST COAST. THEREFORE...HAVE INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY FROM EARLIER FORECASTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD FOR THIS TIME.

THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT THE TIMING OF SMALLER
SCALE FEATURES ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THE MODELS
SHOW WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING SOUTH OUT OF ALBERTA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THESE DISTURBANCES ARE SUPPOSE TO CONNECT WITH
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST CAUSING AN
ELONGATED TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH
COULD POTENTIALLY CAUSE COLD POLAR AIR TO BE PULLED OVER THE
DIVIDE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW COLD THIS
AIR WILL BE SO SHOWED A COOLING TREND AT THIS TIME. ON
MONDAY...THE MODELS SHOW THAT THE TROUGH WILL FALL APART CAUSING
WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO BE PRESENT OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WITH
ABUNDANT SURFACE MOISTURE...EXPECT FOG TO FORM LATE TONIGHT IN
MOST VALLEYS WITHIN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS FOG MAY BE DENSE AT
TIMES IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IT ALSO WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
ID...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WHITMORE
LONG TERM....SMITH
AVIATION...WHITMORE