000 
FXUS61 KMHX 021415
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1015 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST THROUGH FRI. THE FRONT WILL MOVE 
OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT...THEN BE NEARLY STATIONARY E AND S OF THE AREA 
SAT AND SUN. 

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL ALONG COAST TODAY BUT NEXT SHRT WV WILL 
HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT...THUS MODELS SUPPORT NO CONVECTIVE 
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN WITH REASONABLY DRY ATMOS. MOS TEMPS SUPPORT 
HIGHS A FEW DEGS COOLER THAN ON WED FOR INLAND SECTIONS...MAINLY 
LOWER 90S. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
NEXT SHRT WV WILL AFFECT AREA TONIGHT WITH MODELS INDICATING WDLY 
SCT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY PSBL MAINLY ALONG COAST...THUS CONTINUED 
SLGT CHC POPS. FRI THROUGH SAT LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH FRONT JUST 
OFFSHORE AND MINIMAL SHRT WVS. ALL MODELS INDICATE A STRONGER SHRT 
WV MOVING IN SAT NIGHT AND EXTENDED SLGT CHC POPS TO ALL ZONES FOR 
PERIOD AS COULD SEE ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM W ALL NIGHT. MOS BLEND 
LOOKS REASONABLE FOR TEMPS. SLGT COOL DOWN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 
NORMAL TEMPS TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN WARMING AGAIN SAT. 

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN 
INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHRA/TS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ANOTHER 
FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THE 
FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH SEVERAL WEAK WAVES 
RIDING ALONG THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK. 

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM FRI...SHOWERS WILL EXIT EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IN THE 
NEXT FEW HOURS. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH EVENING...WHEN A WEAK 
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS THROUGH AND TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION 
OVERNIGHT. 

VFR CONDITIONS IN STORE FOR THE MOST PART. SOME LOW STRATUS/FOG
POSSIBLE IN THE USUAL PREDAWN HOURS. DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
SCATTERED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1015 AM FRI...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE 
ZONES TODAY AS A FRONT MOVES VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST. THE FRONT 
WILL BE STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN AREA TODAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE 
SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. 00Z GFS/NAM CONTINUE IN VERY GOOD 
AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES. WENT 
WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO FOR THIS MORNINGS PACKAGE. MODELS KEEP 
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY SO NO HEADLINES. 
LOW PRESSURE PASSING JUST TO THE NORTH SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL PULL 
THE FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD 
FRONT TO FOLLOW ON TUESDAY. MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED 
PORTION...SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS THE GFS SEEMS TO OVERDEEPEN THE 
LOW TO OUR NORTH...WHILE HPC HAS THIS FEATURE NOT AS STRONG AND A 
BIT FASTER.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JBM
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...JW/JBM
AVIATION...HSA
MARINE...HSA/SJ