000 
FXUS62 KILM 241930
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
330 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE
CENTRAL STATES. WEAK LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHWARD FROM THE
BAHAMAS MAY AFFECT THE THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE CAROLINAS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...CONVERGENT BANDS OF TROPICALLY DERIVED
MOISTURE LINE ROUGHLY WELL WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL OMEGA
FIELDS...AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN MS VLY AND AN
EXTENSIVE BERMUDA HIGH CIRCULATION INTERACT. THIS IS ALLOWING A
RICH FEED OF MOISTURE LADEN AIR TO SWELL NORTHWARD OUT OF THE
TROPICS. DIURNAL AFTERNOON HEATING WAS CAUSING THE CONVERGENT
FOCUS TO BECOME A BIT MORE DIFFUSE WITH ECHO TRENDS ON RADAR
EXHIBITING MORE DISCREET CELLULAR GROWTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...IT
SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION WILL SHIFT FARTHER
INLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS THE
SEA BREEZE FRONT ADVANCES NORTHWARD. SOUTH CAROLINA WILL REMAIN
THE FAVORED REGION FOR LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WHERE LOWER TROPOSPHERE WIND SPEED AND
DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE REMAIN STRONGER JUST OFFSHORE. ISOLATED
SHOWERS HOWEVER WILL STILL POP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE SINCE EVEN A
DECENT OUT FLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE CAPABLE OF POPPING A SHRA.

EXPECT A LULL IN PCPN EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE ILM LAND AND SEA 
ZONES. INCREASING SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOPE OVER THE SOUTHERN 
MARINE ZONES AS LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING ALLOWS UNDISTURBED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE WATERS FROM 
CHARLESTON TO NORTH SANTEE RIVER AND WINYAH BAY AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES WITH NEW MOON AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE 
FAIRLY HIGH RUN-UP OF WATER ONTO THE SAND...EXPANDING THE BEACH 
BERM CLOSER TO THE DUNES. TIDE GAGE PREDICTIONS AND OBSERVED LEVELS 
IN THE NEAR TERM REMAIN BELOW ACTION STAGE SO AN ADVISORY DOES NOT
APPEAR NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH 
AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH...AS EACH HIGH TIDE COMES WITHIN A 
FOOT OF ACTION STAGE...BEFORE THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES FINALLY WANE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS GULF LOW FINALLY TRACKS UP
THE CENTRAL CONUS. HIGH PRESSURE GETS PUSHED FARTHER EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC AS A LOW PUSHES NORTH FROM THE BAHAMAS. GFS KEEPS THIS
LOW FARTHER EAST AND MOVES IT MUCH SLOWER WHILE NAM TRACKS WEAK
LOW CLOSE TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND IT BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE OR
TROUGH AFFECTING LOCAL AREA BY MON NIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. EITHER
WAY A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARM MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE WITH A SPIKE
IN PCP WATER EARLY TUES MORNING UP AROUND 2 INCHES. THEREFORE
EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERY WEATHER TO CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AND ISO THUNDER BASICALLY IN
AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WENT WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TUES.

TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW CLIMO DURING THE DAY...AROUND 80 AND SEVERAL 
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT NIGHT...DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND 
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THE
EXTENDED REMAINS THE SAME WITH A GENERAL UNSETTLED/TROPICAL
PATTERN UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD WHEN A SHIFT IN THE MID LEVEL
PATTERN OCCURS...LEADING TO A DRIER FORECAST. BASICALLY FOLLOWED
HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE DETAILS...WHICH ADVERTISES WEDNESDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS...THE LATTER BEING ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL USHER IN THE DRIER WEATHER SUNDAY. UNTIL
THEN...ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT ANY SMALLER FEATURE
TRAVERSING THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY TROPICAL FLOW THAT MAY
ENHANCE POPS AT ANY TIME. BASICALLY MAINTAINED THE DIURNAL TREND.
THE GFS REMAINS THE ODD MODEL OUT IN REGARDS TO THE DETAILS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND AS IT CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
CLOSING OFF JUST OFF THE COAST WHILE THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS
SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE. AS WOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
TYPE OF PATTERN...NO CHANGE TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST/GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA...WILL 
BLOSSOM THIS AFTERNOON WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND HEATING. THINK 
THUNDER WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED...DUE TO THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE 
ATMOSPHERE...SO NO MENTION IN THE TAFS. COASTAL TERMINALS WILL 
LIKELY BE SPARED ALSO...WITH THE INHIBITING MARINE LAYER. SHOWERS 
WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING...HOWEVER ANOTHER SLUG OF 
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH SCATTERED 
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL 
TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 
06Z...IN SHOWERS AND JUST PLAIN STRATUS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
   
EXTENDED OUTLOOK THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED 
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
TUESDAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. CEILINGS 
WILL LIKELY BE IFR MOST MORNINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE BUT PERSISTENT/EXTENSIVE
FETCH REGION WILL SUSTAIN 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS AFTN AND OVERNIGHT...WITH DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS OF 6-7
SECONDS EXPECTED. NEAR SHORE SEA BREEZE IS ALLOWING WAVE ENERGY TO
BE A BIT MORE SPREAD OUT IN SHORTER WAVELENGTHS...BUT BEYOND THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS...ESE SWELL WAS CLEARLY THE DOMINANT WAVE ENERGY
AND THIS SHOULD HOLD INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY. MARINERS SHOULD EXPECT
STANDING WAVE ACTION THROUGH EAST FACING INLETS DURING FALLING
TIDES AS THE INCOMING SWELL INTERACTS WIT THE OUTGOING WATER FLOW.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT 
TERM PERIOD AS LOW TRACKS NORTH UP THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH 
THE CENTRAL CONUS. OVERALL WINDS SHOULD BE S-SE 10 TO 15 KTS..BUT 
MAY SEE A SPIKE IN WINDS AND SEAS MON NIGHT INTO TUES AS GRADIENT 
TIGHTENS WITH POSSIBLE LOW OR OPEN WAVE TRACKING UP FROM THE BAHAMAS 
INTO THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 3 TO 4 FT 
RANGE MOST OF THE PERIOD BUT MAY PEAK UP NEAR 5 FT OR SO TUES 
MORNING. 


LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...FOLLOWING THE LEAD OF THE PUBLIC SECTION OF
THE FORECAST...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE REGARDING THE EXTENDED COASTAL
WATERS FORECAST. A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL
INITIALLY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. THE FLOW WILL THEN
BEGIN TO VEER AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SPEEDS
WILL PICK UP AS WELL CLOSER TO 15 KNOTS. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE FRONT INCHES CLOSER. WITH THE CONSISTENCY OF
THE FLOW...SEAS WILL BE PEGGED AT A RANGE OF 2-4 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RGZ
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL