000 
FXUS64 KMAF 170543
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1243 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2009

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION INCLUDED BELOW.  

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15KT AT ALL TAF SITES AFTER
17/15Z WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KT AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DECREASE AROUND 18/00Z WITH SCATTERED CLOUD COVER
DISSIPATING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.  

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1236 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2009/ 

UPDATE...
SEE PUBLIC DISCUSSION BELOW.

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED ZONES TO EXPIRE TORNADO WATCH BOX # 157.

UPDATED PRODUCTS TO BE SENT SHORTLY.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009/ 

UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED ZONES FOR TORNADO WATCH HEADLINE. ALREADY HAVE A FEW SEVERE
STORMS EXPECT MORE THIS EVENING. FORECAST ALREADY FINE AS IT WAS
AND GRIDS LOOK GOOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 227 PM CDT THU APR 16 2009/ 

DISCUSSION...
DRYLINE FROM NEAR FST...TO W OF MAF...AND NWD TO W OF LBB WITH 
APPARENT BULGE INVOF NRN CWFA. DWPNTS IN THE M50S IN ERN CWFA AND 
WITH 7H-5H LR/S 7-7.5 C/KM THE SB CAPES SHOULD BE AROUND 2000 J/KG. 
KINEMATICS CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS WITH 
0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 50KTS. SO INITIATION TEMPORAL AND SPATIALLY 
IS THE QUESTION. EVEN THOUGH DRYLINE IS FARTHER E TODAY THAN WAS 
THOUGHT YESTERDAY IT IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT OR LEAST HOLD WHERE IT 
IS (SEE MAF VWP) THRU THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS 85H LOW LEVEL 
JET DEVELOPS...CONVERGENCE. MEANWHILE NOSE OF 100KT 3H JET WILL MOVE 
INTO PB AROUND 00Z INCREASING DEEPER LIFT. THUS EXPECT THAT 
STORMS...SOME SEVERE WILL FORM ON/NEAR DRYLINE BY THIS EVENING. 
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR ISOLD TORNADOES GENERALLY E OF A
GAIL TO GARDEN CITY LINE AS PROFILES BECOME STRONGLY BACKED IN LOW
LEVELS AND VEERED IN MID LEVELS E OF DRYLINE. LOCAL HEAVY RAIN IS
STILL A CONCERN AS GENERAL STEERING WINDS PARALLEL BOUNDARY SO
SOME TRAINING OF CELLS IS LIKELY. IF FRONT ARRIVES EARLIER PRECIP
WOULD BE JUST E OF MAF. WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER POPS OFF AFTER 06Z.
AS FAR AS WWD EXTENT WE WON/T BRING STORMS TOO FAR W...GENERALLY E
OF TX/NM STATE LINE AS COLD FRONT WILL BE PROGRESSING EWD AND
EVENTUALLY PUSH MSTR EWD. CURRENT FCST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD HOWEVER
WILL SHAVE SOME OF THE POPS OF THE SWRN EDGE AND PROBABLY INCREASE
POPS FROM MAF N-NE. DRY AIR WILL BE FARTHER E FRIDAY AND IT WILL
BE COOLER. MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW TAKES ITS TIME TO EXIT AND IS STILL
LOCATED INVOF NE NM LATE FRI. THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
BREEZY CONDITIONS FRI...BUT WITH 20-25KTS IN THE 85H-7H LAYER IT
WON/T BE TOO WINDY. GDP MTNS FAVORED AS USUAL. MID/UPPER LOW
SLOWLY MOVES E INTO KS SAT AND PROBABLY A LITTLE MORE SUBSIDENCE
TO KEEP WINDS NEAR BREEZY. SHOULD BE WARMER SATURDAY WITH
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. NW MID LEVEL FLOW INTO SUNDAY BEHIND EXITING LOW
WHICH WILL FAVOR COLD FRONT TO DROP S DURING THE MORNING. NW MID
LEVEL FLOW INTO MONDAY AND JUST A LITTLE WARMING. LEE TROF/THERMAL
RIDGE DEVELOPS TUE-THUR SO TURNING NOTICEABLY WARMER. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A WATCH ON LOW LEVEL MSTR AS THERE MAY HAVE ENUF TIME TO
RETURN BY THURSDAY FOR DRYLINE TO SHARPEN AND ISOLD STORMS TO
FORM. SEE NO REAL POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINDS IN THE EXTENDED.

FIRE WEATHER...
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE RFW IN EFFECT FOR GDP MTNS/SE NM PLAINS AS
WINDS ARE JUST STARING TO PICK UP IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SE
NM. STILL RH/S WILL ONLY BE NEAR 15 PCT AND WILL BE FOR AREAS
BELOW 6KFT IN THE MTNS. OTHERWISE DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN AND NEAR PECOS CO WHERE SATELLITE INDICATE CU FIELD DEVELOPING
NEAR DRYLINE. AS FAR AS WATCH FOR FRIDAY HAVE OPTED TO DROP WATCH
FOR THE PLAINS AS WINDS WILL BE MARGINAL. IT WILL BE DRIER OVER A
LARGER AREA FRIDAY BUT OTHER THAN GDP MTNS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH. CONSIDER UPPER TRANS PECOS..SE NM...DAVIS
MTNS..MARFA PLATEAU TO HAVE ELEVATED FIRE WX CONCERNS.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... 
     GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... 
     GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.


&&

$$

99