000 
FXUS64 KTSA 062102
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
302 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2009

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK...AS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN REMAINS ATOP THE REGION. 

UNSEASONABLY WARM...DRY...AND WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...DESPITE AN INFLUX OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WEAK FRONT/DRY LINE THAT SAGGED INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING HAS CONTINUED TO EDGE NORTHWARD
THIS AFTERNOON...AND NOW LIES ROUGHLY JUST NORTH OF THE I-44
CORRIDOR. ELEVATED FIRE BEHAVIOR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...DUE TO RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES IN THE 30S /WITH VALUES EVEN LOWER NORTH OF THE DRY
LINE/ AND GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
ISSUED EARLIER TODAY STILL LOOKS GOOD AND WILL LET THAT GO UNTIL 8
PM AS SCHEDULED.

VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE...CURRENTLY SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EXTENDING
FROM NEVADA INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...WILL CONTINUE TO SWING
EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUING TO INCREASE AHEAD OF IT. LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE LATER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING...AND AN
INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDINESS TOWARD MORNING CAN BE EXPECTED. EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE ATTENDANT FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE AREA WILL REMAIN CAPPED UNTIL THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE 06/12Z MET POPS
WERE TOTALLY DISREGARDED...IN FAVOR OF THE 06/12Z MAV
GUIDANCE...WHICH MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWED THIS TRAIN OF THOUGHT. THE
AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN QUESTION...WITH
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA FAVORED. DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR COULD
BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME A RELATIVE LACK OF INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE
SOME ELEVATED HAILERS. PRECIP COULD LINGER IN EASTERN AREAS AFTER
12Z SUNDAY...BUT MOST OF IT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. 

SUNDAY NIGHT PROVIDES OUR ONLY PERIOD WITH NO POPS UNTIL THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGH PRESSURE ATOP THE AREA AND
MOISTURE CONFINED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. RETURN FLOW QUICKLY
DEVELOPS ON MONDAY...LEADING TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
AGAIN AS FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CONUS. NEXT SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF PRECIP OCCURS
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS A BIT
SUSPICIOUS...AS COOL SURFACE HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH
OVERRUNNING FROM THE SOUTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW ANY
SIGNIFICANT INDICATORS FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP...BUT
THE PATTERN BEARS WATCHING. KEPT THINGS ALL LIQUID FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  74  58  66 /  10  20  50  10 
FSM   57  74  57  74 /  10  20  40  30 
MLC   62  76  60  72 /  10  20  30  20 
BVO   57  73  51  64 /  10  20  50  10 
FYV   59  70  57  67 /  10  20  50  30 
BYV   58  72  56  67 /  10  20  60  30 
MKO   61  74  58  68 /  10  20  50  20 
MIO   61  72  54  65 /  10  20  60  20 
F10   62  74  60  67 /  10  20  40  20 
HHW   61  75  63  79 /  10  20  30  30 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....22