000 
FXUS64 KMAF 061802
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1202 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2009

.DISCUSSION...

SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED
TO BROKEN LAYERS OF MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. AN EXCEPTION
TO ABOVE MENTIONED VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY
MORNING WHERE A MOIST 45-50KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING MVFR LOW CLOUDS /BKN020/ NEAR THE KMAF TERMINAL.

ALSO...A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED LEE SIDE
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON . SOME DECOUPLING OF WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS...WITH
POTENTIAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR VICINITY KMAF BETWEEN 05Z AND 11Z
SATURDAY.
 
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 455 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2009/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS CONTINUES WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER WEST 
TEXAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY...MOVES EAST OUT OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.  NORTH OF THIS 
FEATURE...ANOTHER VORT MAX IS NOW DIVING SOUTH OUT OF WESTERN 
CANADA.  THE LATTER FEATURE WILL RESULT IN A POSITIVELY TILTED 
TROUGH JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY SATURDAY 
MORNING.  WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS UL 
TROUGH RELATIVELY WEAK AND GREATEST HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING OVER SOUTH 
CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN NORTHEAST TOWARDS GREAT 
LAKES...ONE WOULD EXPECT LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR IT TO DIG MUCH 
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH.  FOR THIS REASON...EXPECTING WIND MAKER THIS 
TIME AROUND AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT INCREASES ALONG 
WITH SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. ONLY MINOR POPS OVER EXTREME EASTERN 
PORTIONS OF CWA (NEAR DRYLINE) AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO (NEAR 
WEAK UL JET SUPPORT) WILL BE INCLUDED FOR SATURDAY.

SUBTROPICAL FETCH OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN CIRRUS 
THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME BREAKS TODAY...UNTIL UPPER 
LOW EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD.  LOW CLOUD WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL FOR 
THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS LOW LEVEL 
JET CONTINUES TO ADVECT MOISTURE.  LOWS THIS MORNING WILL BE RATHER 
WARM AS A RESULT.  TEMPS TODAY WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS 850 
MB THERMAL RIDGE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST...WITH LEE LOW NEAR 
KS/CO BORDER...AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WEAKENING.  LOWS WILL REMAIN 
ON THE WARM SIDE SATURDAY MORNING AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE 
ADVECTION CONTINUES.  DRYLINE WILL MOST LIKELY BE POSITIONED ALONG 
OUR EASTERN CWA BORDER BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND PACIFIC FRONT 
WILL FOLLOW....COOLING TEMPS FOR SUNDAY.  WILL NEED TO WATCH HIGH 
WIND POTENTIAL FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY WITH INCREASED 
MID LEVEL FLOW AND PERHAPS SLIGHT CHANCE OF VIRGA OVER REGION.  A 
HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE ISSUED THIS MORNING.  MAV GUIDANCE CONTINUES 
TO SHOW THIS AS WELL.  WINDS MAY ALSO APPROACH ADVISORY LEVEL 
CRITERIA IN THE SOUTHEAST NM PLAINS...BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW 
OVER PERMIAN BASIN AND UPPER TRANS PECOS.  NEXT FEATURES TO KEEP AN 
EYE ON WILL BE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT 
EARLY NEXT WEEK MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND COLD FRONT MAKING 
ITS WAY DOWN THE PLAINS LATE TUESDAY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT 
FIRST SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER REGION SOMETIME 
WEDNESDAY AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WITH FRONTAL POSITION COULD 
RESULT IN DECENT POPS FOR THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  WILL INCREASE 
POPS SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL STAY ON LOW SIDE AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING 
STILL A CONCERN.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY LOWER 
LEVEL WILL RESULT IN VERY LOW RH WEST OF A SURFACE TROUGH WHICH 
SHOULD SET UP NEAR A HOBBS TO FT DAVIS LINE BY THIS AFTERNOON.   MIN 
RH OF 10 PERCENT OR LESS WILL BE POSSIBLE.  LIMITING FACTOR ACROSS 
THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE LOWER WIND SPEEDS... HOWEVER HIGHER 850 AND 
700 MB SPEEDS OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO SHOULD MIX DOWN THIS 
AFTERNOON AND REACH 20 MPH OR GREATER AT 20 FEET.  THESE FEATURES 
COMBINED WITH HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL RESULT IN NEED FOR 
UPGRADE OF FIRE WX WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST NM TO A RED FLAG WARNING
THIS AFTERNOON. 

SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIGGER FIRE WX DAY AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH 
SWINGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND A DRYLINE MOVES EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW 
DRAGS ACROSS THE PANHANDLE.  THIS WILL ALLOW VERY LOW RH TO SPREAD 
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  THE COMBINATION 
OF THIS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY 
WILL RESULT IN WINDIER CONDITIONS.  THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE FIRE WX 
WATCH SATURDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF A VAN HORN TO IRAAN LINE.  LATER 
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REFINE EASTERN OR SOUTHERN EXTENT OF WATCH.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY 
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM 
     ROSWELL/LNZ.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST 
     PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING 
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN 
     NF/LNZ.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR 
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY 
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BORDEN...
     CRANE...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...DAWSON...ECTOR...
     GAINES...GLASSCOCK...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...
     MITCHELL...PECOS...REAGAN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS 
     PECOS...SCURRY...UPTON...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...
     WARD...WINKLER.

     RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING 
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR 
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.


&&

$$