000 
FXUS65 KVEF 212228 AAA
AFDVEF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
327 PM PDT SAT JUN 21 2008

.SYNOPSIS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMEPRATURES WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL 
DAYS. A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING WILL OCCUR MONDAY AS A VERY WEAK 
FRONT PASSES SUNDAY. AFTERNOON WINDS SUNDAY WILL INCREASE TO BRING 
LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN 
CENTRAL NEVADA AND THE SIERRA TODAY AND SUNDAY...OTHERWISE THE REST 
OF THE AREA WILL SEE A FEW AFTERNOON CLOUDS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...CONVECTION HAS BEING GOING ON IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES AS 
LIFT...MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND OTHER PARAMTERS COME TO GETHER. SO FAR 
NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OBSERVED IN OUR CWA. EXPECT IT TO DIE OUT THIS 
EVENING AND REFIRE IN THE SIERRA AND EASTWARD TO NORTHERN LINCON 
COUNTY AS TROUGH APPROACHES AND PASSES THEN. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL 
PREVENT IT FROM BEING WIDESPREAD. WINDS COULD REACH BREEZY LEVELS IN 
THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY IN SAN BERNARDO AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY WITH 
THIS SYSTEM. RIDGE GETS FLATTENED BY THE TROUGH AND THIS WILL LEAD 
TO A FEW DEGRESS COOLING ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...12Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ENERGY WILL 
SEPARATE FROM THE NORTHERLY FLOW MID WEEK AND DEVELOP INTO A WEAK 
CLOSED LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL 
BRING AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA. DEPENDING ON THE 
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW...GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS AND LOW RH 
COULD LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SEVERAL FACTORS THAT COULD 
HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEK INCLUDE...THE 
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW OFF THE COAST AND THE HIGH OVER THE 
SOUTHWEST...WHETHER OR NOT AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM WILL PLAY ANY ROLE AND 
FINALLY...WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL SYSTEM AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF 
NEAR SOUTHERN MEXICO ON SATURDAY BEGINS TO HAVE ANY EVENTUAL IMPACT. 

FOR THE TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY TIME FRAME...WARM TEMPERATURES ARE 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THE GFS INDICATES  SOME 
INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE CWA EACH AFTERNOON 
BUT MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED AND ONLY GHOST POPS WERE USED. TO 
BEGIN NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS SHOWS AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER 
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA. A CHECK OF PROGGED RH HAS THIS 
MOISTURE CONTAINED TO THE UPPER LEVELS. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED THE 
GENERAL FEEL OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL 
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED UNDER 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS TO THIS POINT HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED A 
TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERN BUT SHOULD SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST 
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 108 EXPECTED 
SUNDAY WITH 100 DEGREES ARRIVING AROUND 18Z.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST 
CALIFORNIA...SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH EARLY 
NEXT WEEK UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS 
EXPECTED BUT AFTERNOON CUMULUS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST 
AREA ON SUNDAY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. A 
FEW DEGREES DROP WILL OCCUR MONDAY AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH 
THE AREA SUNDAY. ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE 
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN NEVADA ZONES 460...461...462 AND IN 
CALIFORNIA ZONES 226 AND 227. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO SPARSE ENOUGH 
NOT TO REACH WARNING LEVEL FOR DRY LIGHNING. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED 
TO BE BREEZY IN THE EASTERN MOJAVE DESSERT BUT ALSO BELOW CRITICAL 
LEVELS. MONDAY ONWARD WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS AND SLOWER WIND SPEEDS.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

JACQUES/SALMEN

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS