000 
FXUS64 KFWD 132037
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
337 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS ALONG A VERNON TO NORMAN LINE AND CONTINUES TO
PUSH SOUTH NEAR 10 MPH. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT CIN IS
WEAKENING WITH MLCAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
INITIATE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND BEGIN TO MOVE/BUILD
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN CWA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE INTO LESS FAVORABLE AIRMASS
OVER NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT. WILL SHOW HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES...WITH NO POPS SOUTH OF I-20. SEVERE THREAT NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...BUT SHOULD BE PRIMARILY WIND DAMAGE AND
CONFINED TO LOCATIONS NORTH OF A BOWIE TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE.

WILL SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION TOMORROW AS THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HANGS UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AND WASHES
OUT. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND DRIVEN
PRIMARILY BY HEATING/LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BACK OFF TO THE WEST AND ALLOW STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY MID
LEVEL FLOW TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. NAM FORECASTS HAVE BEEN VERY
INSISTENT ON CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER WRN OKLAHOMA...EVOLVING
INTO A MCS AND TRACKING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHER MODELS HAVE BEEN DRY. GIVEN THE CONTINUITY OF THE NAM AND
THE TRACK RECORD OF REPEATED CONVECTIVE EPISODES ACROSS THE PLAINS
THIS MONTH...WILL SIDE WITH THE NAM AND INSERT LOW POPS OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...MUCH LIKE TONIGHT...THE
AIRMASS WILL BE INCREASINGLY STABLE THE FARTHER SOUTH ONE GOES AND
WILL NOT SHOW POPS SOUTH OF I-20.

OTHERWISE...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
DID GO A LITTLE COOLER THAN THE MAV GUIDANCE BASED ON LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS PROFILES. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
MOISTURE BECOMING RATHER LIMITED. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BACK-DOOR IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND AFFECT
THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF RAIN.
DID NOT GO QUITE AS COOL AS THE GUIDANCE AND KEPT THE BEST CHANCES
OF RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST. TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST SHOT
FOR RAIN AS NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS THE AREA.
ECMWF/GFS ARE HINTING AT A NW FLOW/MCS EVENT DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY IT CONSERVATIVELY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  96  77  98  76 /  20  20  20  10  10 
WACO, TX              75  96  75  97  76 /  10  20  10  10  10 
PARIS, TX             71  93  73  95  74 /  40  20  20  10  10 
DENTON, TX            74  96  74  97  75 /  30  20  20  10  10 
MCKINNEY, TX          73  94  72  95  72 /  30  20  20  10  10 
DALLAS, TX            77  94  79  96  79 /  20  20  20  10  10 
TERRELL, TX           75  94  74  95  74 /  20  20  20  10  10 
CORSICANA, TX         75  95  74  96  74 /  10  20  10  10  10 
TEMPLE, TX            72  96  73  97  73 /  10  10  10  10  10 

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$