000 
FXUS63 KEAX 131739
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1239 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED THE ENTIRE CWA WITH THE
EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY BEING DISPLACED INTO EXTREME SRN MO...WWD
TO ALONG THE KS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. STG CONVECTION WAS NOTED ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FM SWRN KS. STG
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY INHIBIT ANY
SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL THETAE ADVECTION INTO THE CWA. THE ONLY PSBL
EXCEPTION MAY BE ALONG THE XTRM SRN PORTION OF THE CWA. WILL HOLD OFF
CANCELING THE FFA FOR THE XTRM SRN PORTION OF THE CWA...UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO LIFT BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. A
STRATIFORM RAIN WITH A FEW ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIFT NE
INTO THE SERN ONE HALF OF THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE THIS M
MORNING. HAVE LEFT THE NWRN CWA POP FREE...BUT AREA MAY SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES. OTHERWISE...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL END EARLY THIS AFTN IN
THE SERN CWA AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS MO.

DRIER AIR TO SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS DROPPING
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES WILL ONCE AGAIN INDUCE WEAK LEE SIDE TROUGHING.
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
EXTREME NWRN MO DUE TO WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT.

HAVE UPPED POPS FOR SUNDAY AFTN FOR NRN MO AS A COLD FRONT SAGS
TOWARD THE IOWA BORDER. BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE NRN PLAINS. MAY SEE A COMPLEX
OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...THEREFORE...HAVE
INCREASED POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. 

DB

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...THE TRUE COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH STJ LATE THIS 
MORNING AND WILL PASS THROUGH MCI/MKC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT 
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY EITHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE 
OR CALM WINDS TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME PRE-DAWN MVFR GROUND FOG AT 
STJ FOR A FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS.

MJ

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
$$