000 
FXUS64 KMAF 252349
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
649 PM CDT TUE MAR 25 2008

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BACK TO THE S/SW OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL SHIFT
MORE TO THE W/SW AGAIN AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH A FEW
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ACROSS MOST TERMINALS AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT TUE MAR 25 2008/ 

DISCUSSION...
ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO FIRE WEATHER 
CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOUTHWEST AND WEST 
SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS WARM AND DRY ACROSS 
THE AREA WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.  
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL BACK DOOR INTO 
THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK THAT /COULD/ BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES TO THE 
EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  BUT RIGHT NOW...THE ONLY 
THING MODELS TEND TO AGREE ON IS THE EXISTENCE OF THE FRONT ITSELF.  

TEMPERATURES IN THE MEANTIME WILL SOAR NEARLY 15 DEGREES ABOVE 
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  THE FRONT WILL MODERATE THESE 
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT GIVING US AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS 
ON FRIDAY WITH A QUICK REBOUND ON SATURDAY.  AS FOR THE RAIN 
CHANCES...MODELS ARE DIVIDED ON WHEN AND WHERE THE PRECIP WILL 
OCCUR.  FOR THAT REASON...KEPT POPS WELL BELOW GUIDANCE FOR THE 
DURATION UNTIL BETTER DETAILS CAN BE WORKED OUT WITH SUBSEQUENT 
MODEL RUNS.  

MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY 
THAT LOOKS TO COOL TEMPS OFF A BIT MORE.  MODEL TIMING IS AGAIN OFF 
A BIT WITH THIS FEATURE...SO WENT WITH A MODEL BLEND FOR 
TEMPS...WITH MOST LOCATIONS ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN SEASONAL 
NORMS BY TUESDAY.  THERE WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER SLIGHT POSSIBILITY 
FOR PRECIP CHANCES...MAINLY EAST AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  WILL 
ALSO NEED TO MONITOR FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY IN THE FOLLOWING DAYS.

MODELS CONTINUE THE ZONAL FLOW WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES 
THROUGH THE FLOW.  IF THIS IS THE CASE...EXPECT CONTINUED WARM AND 
DRY UNTIL THE UPPER FLOW CAN BE ALTERED. /13/

FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 
THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. FIRST...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS 
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...WITH A HIGH 
LIKELIHOOD OF THESE CONDITIONS STRETCHING SOUTH ACROSS THE DELAWARE 
MOUNTAINS AND VAN HORN REGION. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THIS REGION 
WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE THROUGH IT/S CURRENT EXPIRATION TIME...
1 AM CDT WEDNESDAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SAME 
REGION TOMORROW...AND THE CURRENT FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL CONTINUE.
THE DRY AIR AND INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND EAST INTO 
THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND 
EVENING. WE HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE PLAINS 
OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RH 
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR 10%. 20 FOOT WINDS MAY BE 
MARGINAL...BUT GIVEN A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE AFTERNOON... 
WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED IF WINDS ARE STRONGER THAN WHAT THE 
CURRENT SHORT TERM MODEL DATA SUGGESTS. LOW RH/S ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ON THURSDAY...HOWEVER THE STRENGTH OF THE 20 FOOT WINDS REMAINS 
IN QUESTION. 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT MDT 
     TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS 
     NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT 
     WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE 
     MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 12 PM TO 9 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 6 PM CDT /5 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING TO 1 AM 
     CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM 
     CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.


&&

$$

21/10