000 
FXUS63 KEAX 251121
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
620 AM CDT TUE MAR 25 2008

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/440 AM CDT TUE MAR 25 2008/

A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF FAST MOVING 
SHORTWAVES TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE NATION WILL 
DEFINE THE NEXT 7 DAYS WEATHER. WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN AND THE 
BULK OF THE ENERGY REMAINING NORTH OF THE CWA DO NOT EXPECT ANY 
SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF COLD AIR SOUTHWARD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL 
TIED TO TIMING OF UPPER FEATURES AND PLACEMENT OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES 
WITH THE ADDED KICKER OF BOUTS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. 

IN THE SHORT TERM THE FIRST SHORTWAVE ZIPPING EASTWARD THROUGH MN 
WILL HELP PUSH THE INITIAL COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA TODAY. FRONT 
WILL BE MORE LIKE A WIND SHIFT LINE AS MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL 
BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. THIS DUE TO A WARMER START AND WARMER 
850MB TEMPERATURES. WENT CLOSER TO MET MOS GUIDANCE ALTHOUGH ONE 
COULD ARGUE GOING WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV MOS. TRUE COLD FRONT IS 
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS ND AND CENTRAL MN. 

MODELS IN BETTER OVERALL AGREEMENT ON PLACEMENT OF THIS LEAD FRONT. 
USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AS THEY INITIALLY STALL IT JUST 
SOUTH OF THE CWA LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE LIFTING IT A BIT 
NORTH BY THURSDAY. NAM STILL LOOKS TOO FAR NORTH. BY TONIGHT CWA 
WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A PRONOUNCED 
EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO 
THURSDAY. THIS SPELLS COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR ALL BUT THE FAR 
SOUTHERN CWA WHICH HOLDS A GLIMMER OF HOPE OF SEEING MID 60S BY 
THURSDAY AS THE FRONT OSCILLATES NORTH. PERUSAL OF PROGGED SOUNDINGS 
INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BECOME NEARLY SATURATED ON 
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO  THURSDAY INDICATING A GENERALLY 
CLOUDY SKY. ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295-305K SURFACES WILL BE THE 
PRIMARY DRIVER FOR RAIN. HOWEVER...NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED BY THUNDER 
CHANCES AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE LACKING AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY 
SKIMPY TO NON-EXISTENT WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL HOLD ONTO 
ISOLATED THUNDER DUE TO EXPECTATION THAT MODELS MAY BE 
UNDERFORECASTING MID LEVEL MOISTURE. 

A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL PLOW EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL 
PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH AND SHOULD 
INTERACT BETTER WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO GENERATE A BETTER CHANCE 
FOR RAIN AND EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. 

MJ

FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND...ECMWF/GFS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT THE 
LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH TO 
AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH 
HELP...BUT SINCE THE LAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY 
CONSISTENT THE LAST 24 HOURS...WILL GO AHEAD AN INTRODUCE A THREAT 
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WILL BE DEPENDENT 
UPON THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE RETURN AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE 
BOUNDARIES. CANNOT RULE OUT THE THREAT OF SVR AT THIS TIME.

DB

&&

AVIATION...

FOR THE 12Z TAF CYCLE...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE THROUGH 
THE REGION TODAY. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE FINALLY 
SUBSIDED AS LOW-LVL WINDS ALSO DECREASE. MODELS ARE STILL IN SOME 
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SETTLE 
THROUGH THE TAF SITES. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 
FASTER NAM AND THE SLOWER GFS WHICH FALLS SOMEWHERE AROUND THE 
CURRENT RUC ANALYSIS. A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND THIS MORNING WILL 
GRADUALLY SWING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON.  
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS 
ONLY SCT-BKN MID-LVL DECK WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES 
THROUGH. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON WHERE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS 
THIS EVENING...AS LOW-LVL STRATUS DECK MAY BEGIN TO REFORM JUST 
SOUTH OF THE KANSAS CITY TERMINALS BY THIS EVENING.

DUX

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
$$