000 
FXUS62 KMLB 120216
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1015 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2008

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...WEAK 1014MB LOW PRES CTR LOCATED OVER NERN GOMEX WITH COOL 
FRONT EXTEDNING SWWD. PAIR OF H50 SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OVER NRN GA/SC 
AND ACROSS CTRL-ERN TX COMBINING TO FORM EXPANSIVE CYCLONIC VORT AXIS
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES-NRN GOMEX. THIS IS INDUCING FAVORABLE 
MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET CONFIG OVER FL WITH FORCED ASCENT HELPING TO 
PROMOTE WARM SECTOR SCT SHRA/+SHRA MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN HALF CWA. 
RADAR ESTIMATES SOME RAINFALL TOTALS 0.5 OR A LITTLE HIGHER FROM
THIS ACTIVITY.

OVERNIGHT...EXPECT SHRA ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 2AM OR SO
...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS AS JET AXIS SHIFTS SLOWLY 
SWD. NOT CONFIDENT ON EXTENT OF CLEARING...ESPECIALLY OVER SRN CWA.
NEVERTHELESS WILL INDICATE PATCHY FOG FOR ALL ZONES GIVEN EXPECTED 
DCRS IN CLDS (MORE SUBSTANTIAL OVER THE NORTH) AND THE DECENT AREAL 
COVRG OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH. NUDGED MIN TEMPS UP A LITTLE 
AREAWIDE AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...EVENING SHRA GOT A BIT MORE INTENSE THAN ANTICIPATED 
WITH SOME IFR VSBYS OCCURRING FROM MLB SWD. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO 
TAPER OFF TWD 06Z...WITH MVFR VSBYS IN FOG BECMG FAIRLY COMMON THRU 
12Z OR SO. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR OUT A BIT MORE THAN IS CURRENTLY BEING 
FCST...THEN WE COULD SEE SOME IFR FG/ST AFT 09Z.

&&

.MARINE...WEAK SRLY WINDS 10KT WITH SEAS 2FT NR SHORE AND 2-3FT 
WELL OFFSHORE. NO CWF CHGS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

CRISTALDI