000 
FXUS65 KFGZ 120005
AFDFGZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
500 PM MST TUE MAR 11 2008

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY 
SKIES TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. 
INCREASING WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN ORDER FROM 
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A STORM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. FOR 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...EXPECT MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND A GOOD 
CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE 
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES 
THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH WITH 
COOL NIGHTS AND LOW HUMIDITY LEVELS.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...STARTING ON FRIDAY A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW 
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH ARIZONA FROM THE NORTHWEST. 
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE WITH INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL 
CLOUDINESS STARTING ON SATURDAY. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WIND 
CONDITIONS WITH DAYTIME WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AHEAD OF THIS NEXT 
SYSTEM.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE LATEST MODEL FORECASTS SHOW LARGE 
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODEL RUNS. GFS RUN TO RUN 
CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN POOR WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO CUT 
OFF FROM THE POLAR FRONT JET. OUR CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS ARE BASED 
MORE ON THE EUROPEAN MODEL OUTPUT...AS THE FORECAST TRACK OF THIS 
NEXT SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MORE CONSISTENT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH 
THE TRACK OF THE SUNDAY SYSTEM IS FAIR AT THIS POINT AND SMALL 
CHANGES IN TRACK WILL MEAN LARGE CHANGES IN LOCAL FORECAST IMPACTS. 
FOR THE MOMENT WE CONTINUE TO HAVE A 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY...MAINLY FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6000 FEET. 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH IS 
EXPECTED TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE STATE. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES AS THE 
MODELS SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONVERGE ON A MORE CONSISTENT SOLUTION.


&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING LIGHT
WINDS AND PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. 

&&
$$

BOHLIN