000 
FXUS63 KMPX 190946
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
346 AM CST TUE FEB 19 2008

.DISCUSSION...

CLOSED LOW ALOFT OVER WESTERN ONTARIO EARLY THIS MORNING. FEATURE
IS DROPPING ALMOST DUE SOUTH AND WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A SURGE OF LOW LEVEL WAA
AHEAD OF THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT COUPLED WITH DECENT UPGLIDE AND
Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE SHOULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SW AND
SOUTHERN MN BY LATE THIS MORNING WITH AN INCREASE OVER FAR EASTERN
MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LAPSE RATES ARE
STEEP ONCE AGAIN TODAY FROM 950 TO 850 MB WITH 8.6 DEG C/KM
PROGGED DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN CWA. EVEN SOME LOW
LEVEL CAPE SEEN. THEREFORE WENT QUITE A BIT ABOVE THE VARIOUS MOS
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS. USED CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN MN
INCREASING TO LIKELY POPS FOR A TIME NEAR EAU CLAIRE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. VERY DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WITH DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE MINUS 20S
NORTH OF US THIS MORNING. CUT MOS LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNING AND TRIMMED BACK ON THE HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL. BRISK
NW WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT. APPARENT
TEMPERATURE GRID INDICATED MINUS 25 BY 00Z IN THE WESTERN CWA AND
AROUND 06Z IN THE EAST. WILL BE ISSUING A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR
THE CWA STARTING WITH THE TIMES ABOVE AND CONTINUING IT THROUGH
NOON WEDNESDAY. ECMWF AND GFS PRETTY CONSISTENT ON BRINGING
ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...INCREASED CLOUDS AND ADDED SOME
SMALL POPS FOR NOW. MORE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FEATURE. COLLABORATION YIELDED DROPPING LOWS AND HIGHS HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. 00Z MEX GUIDANCE LOOKED GOOD AND WAS USED.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 

VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING WITH
ONLY ISOLATED MVFR CIGS WITH A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
LINGERING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WINDS HAVE ALSO SUBSIDED
AND WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY OVERNIGHT. MAIN CONCERN SHIFTS TO
APPROACHING UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT OF MANITOBA AND WESTERN
ONTARIO. TWO AREAS OF UPPER ENERGY LOOK TO CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE FIRST WAVE MOST LIKELY TO BRING SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. A SFC TROUGH WILL ALSO CROSS THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. 

GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME MID LEVEL 
CLOUDINESS TOWARDS MORNING WITH LOWER END VFR DECK AROUND 5 TO 7
KFT BUILDING AFTER DAYBREAK FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. TRACK OF
UPPER ENERGY SUGGESTS BEST CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS
EAST CENT MN AND WEST CENT WI STARTING DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS AND ENDING EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDOW OF SNOWFALL
SHOULD ONLY BE A FEW HOURS DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE IN
THE ALREADY COLD AND DRY AIRMASS. HAVE CONTINUED WITH PROB 30
MENTION FOR SNOW. EXPECT 2 TO 5 SM VIS IN SNOW SHOWERS THAT CAN
DEVELOP...WITH ISOLATED BRIEF VIS TO AROUND A MILE POSSIBLE. WINDS
WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
TROUGH PASSAGE AND INCREASE IN SPEED WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15
TO 20 KTS ACROSS THE MN SITES WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 TO 30
KTS...WITH THE UPPER END OF THOSE RANGES EXPECTED ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL MN AND LOWER END TO THE EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BUT
SCATTERING OF LOWER CLOUDS LOOKS REASONABLE DURING TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST WEDNESDAY 
     FOR ANOKA-BLUE EARTH-CARVER-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-
     FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-LE SUEUR-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-
     STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 12 PM CST 
     WEDNESDAY FOR BENTON-BROWN-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-KANABEC-
     KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-
     MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-
     STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.

WI...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 12 PM CST WEDNESDAY 
     FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-
     ST. CROIX.

&&

$$

RAH/MDB