000 
FXUS64 KBMX 122200
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
400 PM CST TUE FEB 12 2008

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)

LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POISED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS 
CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...PRETTY MUCH ON SCHEDULE 
OF PREVIOUS FORECAST. BEST INSTABILITY REMAINS IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WHICH IS WHERE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER IS.
WORST WEATHER SHOULD ONLY LAST AT ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION FOR
ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO...WITH THE RAIN TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE AFTER THAT. BY SUNRISE...RAIN SHOULD JUST ABOUT BE LEAVING
THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS CHILLY AND 
BRISK. TOUGH TO GAGE THE CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS...BUT THINK MOST
SPOTS SHOULD BE GETTING AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE BY NOON OR 2 PM.
WILL PROBABLY NEED SOME SORT OF WIND ADVISORY DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.

/61/

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY).

BENIGN SEASONAL WEATHER EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. WINDS DO SHIFT
AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY INDICATING A SLOW RETURN OF
MOISTURE. RAINS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS AN
APPROACHING BOUNDARY SLIDING DOWN FROM NORTH STOCKPILES MOISTURE.
PINEAPPLE EXPRESS WITH ASSOCIATED MINI-WAVES WILL BE ZOOMING
ACROSS HELPING TO ENHANCE SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE DECLINES AS WE MOVE
INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS DEPICTING A STRONG SURFACE LOW SPINNING
UP ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON SATURDAY. I DONT THINK I BUY
THIS AT ALL. MORE REALISTIC IS THE SUNDAY SPIN-UP. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE ON WHERE THIS ONE WILL DEVELOP AND WHERE IT WILL TRACK.
WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY THIS CONSERVATIVELY. WILL CONTINUE MENTION
OF CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

JONES/90

&&

.AVIATION...18Z DISCUSSION.

TSRA TO MOVE ACROSS AND EFFECT ALL SITES THROUGH 09Z. WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH LINE COULD GUST TO 50 KTS. CONCERN FOR MGM AND TOI
LIES BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z. -RA EXPECTED FOR SHORT TIME BEHIND TS.
CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE ABOVE RESTRICTIONS FROM WEST TO EAST BY
09Z. BACK TO WINDS...WINDS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
10G20KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND 15G25KT BEHIND THE FRONT. 

JONES/90


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     37  43  27  55  32 /  90   0   0  10  10 
ANNISTON    39  45  25  57  34 /  90   0   0  10  10 
BIRMINGHAM  32  45  26  56  38 /  90   0   0  10  10 
TUSCALOOSA  31  45  27  57  38 /  90   0   0  10  10 
CALERA      36  46  28  57  38 / 100   0   0  10  10 
AUBURN      40  47  25  55  38 /  90  20   0  10  10 
MONTGOMERY  39  48  28  58  36 / 100  10   0  10  10 
TROY        42  50  28  59  35 /  90  10   0  10  10 

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.

&&

$$