000 
FXHW60 PHFO 112001
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST MON FEB 11 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE 
TRADE WINDS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY 
FAVOR WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT 
THE SURFACE DOMINATES THE REGION. QUITE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM 
THE PAST WEEK OF WET WEATHER. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE 
ATMOSPHERE STABLE ACROSS THE STATE...HELPING TO SUPPRESS AND LIMIT 
SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED OUT...WITH PRECIPITABLE 
WATER VALUES RIGHT AROUND 1 INCH. THE 2 AM SOUNDING FROM HILO AND 
LIHUE THIS MORNING BOTH SHOW MID LEVEL WARMING AND A RETURN OF THE 
TRADE WIND INVERSION. THESE FACTORS WILL WORK TOGETHER...BY LIMITING 
MOISTURE AND KEEPING A CAP ON VERTICAL CLOUD GROWTH. SHOWER 
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AND FAVOR THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. 

THE CFHT/GEM WIND SENSOR ATOP MAUNA KEA HAS BEEN REPORTING WINDS 
NEAR 35 MPH THIS MORNING...PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY 
FOR THE SUMMITS. THE HILO SOUNDING SUPPORTS THE INCREASED WINDS AS 
IT SHOWED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS AT THIS LEVEL. FORECAST MODELS HAVE 
CAPTURED THIS EFFECT AND SHOW THE WINDS DECREASING BY LATE 
AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE WIND SENSORS THROUGH THE DAY 
AND LOOK AT ANOTHER MODEL RUN FOR ANY ADJUSTMENT TO THE ADVISORY.

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC AND ITS RIDGE 
EXTENDS A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF KAUAI. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP 
OUR TRADE WINDS GOING AT A MODERATE PACE THROUGH MID WEEK. A SERIES 
OF STORMS HEADING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS WEEK WILL CHIP AWAY 
AT THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH. THE RIDGE WILL GET SHOVED SOUTH...PLACING 
THE SURFACE RIDGE RIGHT OVER THE ISLANDS LATE IN THE WEEK AND 
THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE FORECAST 
MODELS APPEAR TO BE ON BOARD WITH THIS TREND. WHAT THIS WILL MEAN IS 
A LIGHTER TRADE WIND FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK AND A SHIFT TO A GENERAL 
SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS WEEKEND. THE LIGHT FLOW WILL BRING THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF LOCAL LAND AND SEA BREEZES. 

HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE FORECASTS THIS MORNING TO SCALE BACK THE 
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION/SHOWERS FOR THE ISLANDS. WILL ALSO 
TREND THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ON THE DRIER SIDE WITH THE REGIME WE 
ARE CURRENTLY IN. 

&&

.MARINE...
A SERIES OF STORMS HEADING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO 
SEND NORTHWEST SWELLS TO ISLAND BEACHES. MORNING OBSERVATIONS FROM 
THE WAIMEA BAY BUOY HAVE BEEN SHOWING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 6 FEET WITH 
AN 18 SECOND PERIOD. ENERGY FROM THIS SWELL TRAIN IS EXPECTED TO 
RISE TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO ROLL IN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SWELLS 
WILL DROP OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE SHORT 
LIVED. ANOTHER...LARGER...NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SWELL WILL KEEP SURF HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. 

HAVE HOISTED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS FOR THE PAILOLO AND 
ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS AND SOUTHEAST BIG ISLAND WATERS FOR LOCALIZED 
WIND ACCELERATIONS TODAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE UP FOR ALL 
HAWAIIAN WATERS TONIGHT FOR SEAS INCREASING TO 10 FEET. 

&&

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI 
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU 
KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON FOR BIG ISLAND 
SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

ELAU