000 
FXUS64 KMAF 111149
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
549 AM CST MON FEB 11 2008

.AVIATION...
LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT KMAF... 
KINK AND KHOB THROUGH 11/16Z.  KCNM...KPEQ...AND KFST COULD ALSO 
EXPERIENCE LIFR OR LOW MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DURING THIS 
TIME...BUT THE DURATION WILL NOT BE AS LONG.  AFTER THE FOG 
LIFTS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE 
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND 
A STRONG COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 512 AM CST MON FEB 11 2008/ 

UPDATE...
FOG NOW DENSE AT MIDLAND...WINK...SEMINOLE. EXPECT TRENDS TO CONTINUE
AND EXPAND WITH LACK OF MID OR HIGH CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT WINDS
CONTINUING. WILL UPDATE TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM
CST FOR THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS.

UPDATED PRODUCTS TO BE SENT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST MON FEB 11 2008/ 

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER LEE SURFACE TROUGH TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY
IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS EAST
OF THE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ADVECTING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS WITH
FOG...LOCALLY DENSE FORMING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THIS
MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DECREASING CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BOOST HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN TO 
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY LATE MONDAY AND DRAG A 
SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT.  
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT 
WESTERN SYSTEM BUT COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS 
ON THURSDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AMPLIFIES. 

THE 00Z MONDAY GFS AND ECMWF ARE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT ON THE
TIMING OF THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM LOW TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND. THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER AS IT APPEARS
TO HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING KICKED EAST BY THE NEXT NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DO AGREE HOWEVER THAT
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS AS
TEMPERATURES FROM THE SURFACE TO 700 MILLIBARS WILL BE COLD. WILL
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT POPS FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS ON THIS
SYSTEM. UNDERCUT MEXMOS TEMPERATURES FRIDAY PER FORECAST 850
MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. WENT DRY
FOR NOW SATURDAY BUT BEARS WATCHING PER ECMWF. A RETURN TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

FIRE WEATHER...
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE A LITTLE OVER THE AREA TODAY AS AN 
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL 
ROCKIES AND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THIS WILL ALLOW A SURFACE LOW 
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO DEEPEN...AND MID LEVEL WINDS OVER THE 
AREA TO INCREASE.  THE RESULTANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL 
TIGHTEN THE MOST OVER THE EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO PLAINS...WHILE THE 
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS SEE STRONGER WINDS DUE TO THE INCREASED MID 
LEVEL FLOW.  

ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO MOST OF WEST TEXAS AND 
THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...DRY AIR STILL RESIDED OVER THE 
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...THE ADJACENT PLAINS AND SOUTH TO THE VAN HORN 
AREA.  AS SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT 
THIS DRIER AIR TO MIX EASTWARD...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MINIMUM 
AFTERNOON RH/S IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE FROM THE NORTHERN 
PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS...SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS 
THE UPPER TRANS PECOS...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...DAVIS MOUNTAINS...
MARFA PLATEAU AND SOME OF THE PRESIDIO VALLEY.  SINCE 20 FOOT WIND 
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 20 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN A 
ND NEAR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING 
THERE FROM 11/18Z TO 12/00Z.  SOME OF THE NORTHERN REACHES OF THE 
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS...AND THE WESTERN LOW ROLLING 
PLAINS...COULD SEE 20 MPH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TOO.  BUT AT THIS 
TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THEY WILL LAST LONG ENOUGH FOR A RFW THERE.  
WILL MENTION ALL OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS IN THE 
HWO...IF NOT AN SPS...AS FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED DUE TO DRY 
FUELS.  

RH/S WILL RISE ONLY SLOWLY THIS EVENING AS WESTERLY WINDS PERSIST 
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.  THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST NEW 
MEXICO EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN PROGRESS THROUGH MOST OF WEST TEXAS 
BY 12/12Z.  ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PICK UP TO THE 15 
TO 20 MPH RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT...RH/S SHOULD RISE TO AT LEAST THE 
30 OR 40 PERCENT RANGE.  

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LEE
SURFACE LOW FORMS IN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. DECENT MIXING AND
DECENT WINDS ALOFT SHOULD HELP WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE TO APPROACH
AND OR EXCEED 20 MPH IN MANY LOCATIONS. MINIMUM RH/S IN MANY PLACES
WILL ALSO PROBABLY BE 15 PERCENT OR LESS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY
EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
FLY IN OINTMENT THURSDAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICKER FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAT WOULD BRING COOLER AND MORE MOIST CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 9 AM MST 
     TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...EDDY 
     COUNTY PLAINS...NORTHERN LEA COUNTY...SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS 
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS 
     NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 10 AM CST 
     TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...ANDREWS...BORDEN...
     CRANE...DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...HOWARD...
     LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...PECOS...REAGAN...
     REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...TERRELL...
     UPTON...WARD...WINKLER.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS 
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.


&&

$$

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