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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDFWD Product Timestamp: 2008-02-11 09:58 UTC
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000 FXUS64 KFWD 110958 AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 358 AM CST MON FEB 11 2008 .DISCUSSION... A WEAK COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION...WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST AND A SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY TODAY. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND ANOTHER WEAKER PERTURBATION NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. INCREASED MOISTURE COUPLED WITH WEAK LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP POPS LOW (20 TO 30 PERCENT) TODAY AS MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WELL NORTH OF REGION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS LIFT INCREASES DUE TO THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT A FEW HAIL PRODUCING SEVERE STORMS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL END QUICKLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE MOISTURE RECOVERY DAYS AS A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE WEST. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE MID WEEK AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THINGS SHOULD GET A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT...FOLLOWED BY INCREASING LIFT SUPPLIED BY AN EJECTING CLOSED LOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE GFS SOLUTION IS INDICATING A WINTER PRECIPITATION OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER AND WARMER AND DOES NOT BRING THE UPPER LOW ACROSS NORTH TEXAS UNTIL SATURDAY. FOR NOW WILL GO CLOSER TO THE ECM SOLUTION BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCES WITH THE GFS THIS FAR OUT. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN IN THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WHERE THE ECM INDICATES SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED EXTREMELY CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS AS THIS PATTERN CAN YIELD WINTER STORMS IN NORTH TEXAS IF THE TIMING OF PRECIP AND COLD TEMPERATURES ARE IN SYNC. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 72 46 56 34 58 / 30 60 30 5 5 WACO, TX 74 51 61 34 60 / 30 60 50 5 5 PARIS, TX 63 44 51 27 54 / 30 70 50 10 5 DENTON, TX 72 44 55 27 61 / 30 60 30 5 5 MCKINNEY, TX 67 46 56 27 60 / 30 70 40 5 5 DALLAS, TX 71 46 56 34 58 / 30 70 40 5 5 TERRELL, TX 69 48 55 34 58 / 30 70 50 5 5 CORSICANA, TX 71 49 55 33 60 / 30 60 50 10 5 TEMPLE, TX 72 52 58 36 64 / 30 60 50 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 91/79