000 
FXUS63 KFGF 070909
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
309 AM CST THU FEB 7 2008

.SHORT TERM...
THE UPCOMING EARLY WEEKEND STORM IS THE MAJOR FORECAST CHALLENGE
FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. GFS STILL MAINTAINING GOOD CONTINUITY
WITH THIS SYSTEM...IF ANYTHING THE SFC LOW TRACK IS A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH WHICH MEANS LITTLE FOR THE EXPECTED WINDS. THEREFORE
WILL STAY WITH THE GFS FOR MOST FORECAST DETAILS.

TODAY-TONIGHT...SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONT CURRENTLY RIGHT NEAR THE RED
RIVER VALLEY...WITH COOL TEMPS IN THE EASTERN FA AND MILDER TEMPS
TO THE WEST. ANY REMAINING LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE FRONT IS EITHER
VERY MINIMAL OR GONE. HOWEVER...CLOUD TRENDS WILL PLAY A BIG
FACTOR IN WHERE TEMPS START THE DAY AT. THERE IS CLEARING OVER
CENTRAL ND WHERE TEMPS ARE DROPPING A LITTLE. EVEN THE CURRENTLY
COLDER AREAS OVER OUR EASTERN FA SHOULD WARM WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
MORE CLOUDS...SO THE ENTIRE FA SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD TODAY. MODELS
HAVING A TOUGH TIME ON HOW TO HANDLE THE INITIAL WEAK LOW/TROUGH
THAT KICKS OUT TOWARD THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS TONIGHT. HOWEVER THE
TREND HAS BEEN SLOWER AND DRIER...DESPITE THE HIGHER QPF VALUES
THE GFS HANGS ONTO. WILL STAY WITH THE DRIER ROUTE AND REMOVE LOW
PCPN CHANCES TONIGHT. DESPITE NO PCPN THERE SHOULD BE CLOUDS...SO
THINK OUR LOWS TONIGHT MAY BE TOO COLD.

FRI...NEXT ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST MANITOBA BY LATE
FRI. THE FA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR YET SO TEMPS SHOULD AGAIN
BE FAIRLY MILD. DO NOT THINK THEY WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO PUT A
CRUST ON THE NEW SNOW THOUGH.

FRI NIGHT-SAT...CLIPPER TRACKS TOWARD THE MN ARROWHEAD BY 12Z SAT
WITH STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR BEHIND IT. AT 00Z SAT KDVL LOOKS TO
BE AROUND -6C AT 850MB...AND BY 12Z SAT THEY PLUMMET TO -28C. BY
18Z SAT THEY ARE DOWN TO -32C. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK PRETTY MINIMAL
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM...GENERALLY AN INCH OR SO AT MOST.
850MB WINDS LOOK TO BE ABOUT 50-55 KNOTS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK
ADIABATIC UP TO THIS LEVEL. STRONG PRESSURE RISES AS WELL. ONE
NEGATIVE WOULD BE SOMEWHAT OF A CROSS VALLEY COMPONENT TO THE
WINDS. THINK THIS MAY BE OUTWEIGHED BY THE DARKNESS COMPONENT
...WHERE THERE ARE NO VISUAL REFERENCES AT NIGHT (WHEN THIS IS SET
TO HIT). ALL THIS POINTS TO A NEED FOR SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINE
...AND THE BEST FIT APPEARS TO BE A BLIZZARD WATCH. THIS MAY NOT
BE A TRUE BLIZZARD (WITH LITTLE SNOW ACCOMPANYING IT)...BUT MORE
OF A GROUND BLIZZARD. WITH THIS HITTING AT THE WEEKEND TRAVEL
TIME...IT IS ALSO A GOOD TIME TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL THREAT.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE WITH DAYLIGHT ON SAT...AND THIS EVENT WOULD
PROBABLY TRANSITION OVER TO A WIND CHILL EVENT AT SOME POINT. DO
NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE MUCH SAT...AND ARE MORE LIKELY TO FALL.

.LONG TERM SUN-WED...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
CLIPPER FOR SUNDAY...WITH MODELS STILL SHOWING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PCPN SUN NIGHT/MON (ALTHOUGH GFS IS FASTER THAN OTHER MODELS).
THIS REQUIRES NO CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONLY POSSIBLE AVIATION ISSUE FOR THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE A
TRANSITION OF WINDS FROM THE WEST BACK TO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON 
     FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

MN...BLIZZARD WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON 
     FOR MNZ005-008-013>016-022-023-027-028-030-031-040.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON 
     FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.

&&

$$

GODON