000 
FXUS64 KAMA 070511
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1111 PM CST WED FEB 6 2008

.AVIATION...
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
GIVE WAY TO CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MOVED ACROSS THE DALHART TAF SITE
AND SHOULD BE PUSHING THROUGH THE GUYMON TAF SITE AROUND 06Z
THURSDAY. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AMARILLO TAF
SITE AROUND 08Z THURSDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH INTO THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. LEE
SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALLOWING THE WINDS TO BACK AROUND TO
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH STRENGTHENS...THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS THURSDAY EVENING.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 534 PM CST WED FEB 6 2008/ 

AVIATION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL TRACK EASTWARD SPREADING SCATTERED
MID LEVEL AND SCATTERED TO OVERCAST HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS ALL
THREE TAF SITES TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO FORECASTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE GUYMON TAF SITE AROUND 04Z THURSDAY...THE DALHART TAF
SITE AROUND 05Z THURSDAY...AND THEN THROUGH THE AMARILLO TAF SITE BY
08Z THURSDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THIS
EVENING AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS...TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTY...AND THEN BACKING AROUND TO THE
SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY MIDDAY THURSDAY 10 TO 20 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CST WED FEB 6 2008/ 

DISCUSSION...
CDFNT EXPECTED TO MOVE THRU FCST AREA TNGT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
PASSAGE OF SHRTWV TROF. NRN ZONES WILL BE GRAZED BY SYSTEM...WHICH
COULD SQUEEZE OUT MEAGER MOISTURE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. HAVE
INSERTED SLGT CHC POPS ACRS NRN ZONES TNGT FOR RAIN/SNOW. NET EFFECT
OF SHRTWV TROF PASSAGE WILL BE INCREASED LOW LVL MOISTURE.

MODERATING TEMPS THU AND FRI AS LEE TROF RESUMES. WK CDFNT WILL PASS
THRU ON FRI AS RAPID SHRTWV TROF MOVES ACRS PNHDLS...TO BE REINFORCED
SAT EVE BY OUTSKIRTS OF MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH THAT WILL BE DIVERTED
INTO THE MIDWEST ON SUN.

WILL CONTINUE TREND IN INHERITED PCKG OF WARM MAXIMA ON SUN...WITH
LEE TROF RESUMING BENEATH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...AND RESULTANT EWD SHIFT
OF CD AIR. ECMWF STILL ATTEMPTS TO BRING CD AIR INTO PNHDLS...HOWEVER
OTHER LOW LVL FIELDS IN THIS MODEL ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH SUCH A
SCENARIO. GFS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT THE CD AIR MIGHT BE FOUND IN
ERN ZONES BY SUN MRNG...BUT ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CONSISTENT IN
ERODING IT BY SUN AFTN. GIVEN THAT THE FCST UPR AIR PTTN IS NOT
FAVORABLE FOR ARCTIC INTRUSIONS INTO THE SRN PLAINS /WITH LONGWV TROF
OVER ERN CONUS/...WILL SIDE WITH GFS AND ENSEMBLES ATTM.

12Z GFS HAS RESUMED FCST OF CUTOFF LOW MOVING SWD THRU NM THAT WAS SEEN
YDA IN GFS RUN. TRACK OF THIS LOW IN OPERATIONAL RUN OF GFS IS FOUND
MORE WWD THAN YDA AND STILL IS UNIQUE AMONG ENSEMBLES...SO HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED SUBMENTIONABLE POPS MON THRU MON EVE...ESPECIALLY FOR WRN
ZONES.

MEXMOS VALUES WERE REASONABLE MOST PERIODS. HAVE COOLED MINIMA FRI
EVE AS LIGHT WINDS...DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE ALSO COOLED MAXIMA...ESPECIALLY IN NRN ZONES...
MON AFTN AS CDFNT EXPECTED TO PASS THRU ON MON.

KRAMAR

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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